Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited Voting (NTB) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4% Move

NTB scores 67 out of 100 for a letter grade of C+ and a verdict of "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are:

• Fundamental Cash Engine: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 20.3% and an FCF yield of 12.2%. These are the strongest inputs in the framework and are the main upside driver: high capital returns combined with a high FCF yield suggest the business generates cash well relative to its market value.
• Whale 13F Flow: 7 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The low score indicates limited institutional tailwind in the source data, which tempers conviction.
• Insider Conviction: 17 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow.
• Macro Regime Fit: 14 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity noted. A market-matching beta means the stock is not structurally more volatile than the market, but it is also not insulated from broad moves.
• Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. These are moderate readings: the Altman Z sits in a range that is not distressed, and the Piotroski score is respectable, but neither is a clear strength.

For a prospective investor, the profile is one of solid cash generation and insider interest offset by weak institutional flow and a middling balance sheet read. The grade signals a neutral stance with the caveat to watch for a breakout, meaning the framework sees the outcome as balanced rather than directional. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data: a P/E (TTM) of 9.9 and forward P/E of 9.2 are low on the source figures, but low multiples alone do not resolve whether the market is mispricing the business or correctly reflecting its risks.

Per the Financials sector and Commercial Banks industry classification, NTB is a NYSE-listed issuer with a market capitalization of $2.3B.. Specific products, customer segments, and revenue mix are —

Revenue rose from $578.6M in FY 2023 to $606.8M in FY 2025, while net income moved from $225.5M to $231.9M over the same span with a dip to $216.3M in FY 2024. Per the market data, net margin is 38.2% and ROIC is 20.3%, and per the RQD rating the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9. Per the RQD rating, Debt/Equity is 0.5. Operating margin and gross margin are reported as 0% in the market data, which does not match a meaningful operating income figure and should be read as a data limitation rather than a finding. Cash declined from $2.00B in FY 2024 to $1.71B in FY 2025.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: NTB combines a 20.3% ROIC and 12.2% FCF yield with a 9.9 P/E (TTM), signaling strong cash generation at a low multiple. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 (ROIC 20.3%, FCF yield 12.20%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $44.36 – $64.17 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Whale 13F flow scores just 7 of 20 and the balance sheet grades only 13 of 20, leaving institutional support and financial resilience weak. Investors must weigh 9.9x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are —

• Key Question #1: Why are operating income and operating margin reported as — and 0%, and what is the true operating profitability profile?
• Key Question #2: What explains the decline in cash from $2.00B to $1.71B between FY 2024 and FY 2025?
• Key Question #3: How sensitive is NTB's — gross margin and 9.2x forward P/E multiple to Financials demand cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00)?