NewMarket Corp (NEU) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$783.66 -2.42% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $782.13

NewMarket Corp (NEU) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 73/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (32% profit margin, 17% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B β€’ BUY Cap $7.39B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NEU Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NEU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, NewMarket Corp (NYSE: NEU) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $783.66 (-2.42% 1D, market cap $7.39B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, NEU ranks #5 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NEU compare to EMN and WLK in the Materials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), NEU carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.6x, gross margin of 31.5%, and ROIC of 16.6%. By comparison, EMN (Eastman Chemical Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 16.4x, ROIC 4.8%, cap $7.77B) and WLK (Westlake Corporation) posts a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $8.44B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EMN leads on earnings multiple (16.4x) while NEU leads on capital efficiency (16.6% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NEU?
β–Ό

Per NEU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001282637), NewMarket Corp generated $2.73B in revenue (-2.2% YoY), $418.7M in net income, and $491.3M in free cash flow against $3.49B in total assets and $883.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (32% profit margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $782.09 (-0.20%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) β€’ 18% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 69.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY β€’ B
025507510073
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- Β· Rk B+
Cash (18)Whales (8)SEC (16)Macro (15)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.8% Base Target
$1031 Bull$837 Base$643 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE NEU RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NEU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±6.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (73/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY NEU SCORES 73/100 (B) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18% FCF Margin ($491.3M FCF) & 31.5% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.77 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 6/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
81
Grade A-$898.98-2.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
78
Grade A-$879.70-0.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
76
Grade B+$875.42-10.5% Next Q
Current
73
Grade B$783.66+7.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: A- (81) β†’ B (73)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NEU Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 73/100 (B) score, NEU faces multiple-compression risk if 17.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 29.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($887.07) or 200D SMA ($764.13) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($836.56) toward Bear Floor ($642.60).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NEUβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œNEU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±6.9%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (NEU)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for NEU.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating NEU & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on NEU
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NEU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.24%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $873.3H $873.3L $783.7C $783.7VOL 227.1K
RES: $908.2SUP: $783.2SMA50: $887.1SMA200: $764.1
$1,005.8$905.7$805.6$705.5$605.4RES $908.2SUP $783.2$783.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NEU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
10.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NEU today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NEU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NEU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NEU)

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (NEU vs. EMN, WLK, ESI, HXL)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NewMarket Corp (NEU) ranks #5 by composite RQD confidence (73/100, grade B) and #56 by equity capitalization ($7.39B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EMN leads on earnings valuation at 16.4x trailing P/E, while NEU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.6% ROIC and 31.5% gross margin. NEU currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 73/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NEU ACTIVE
NewMarket Corp
B 73/100 17.6x 31.5% 16.6% -2.42% $7.39B Benchmark Subject
EMN
Eastman Chemical Company
D+ 58/100 16.4x 21.1% 4.8% -2.06% $7.77B /emn-vs-neu β†’
WLK
Westlake Corporation
E 27/100 β€” 7.3% -11.2% +3.44% $8.44B /wlk-vs-neu β†’
ESI
Element Solutions Inc.
D+ 52/100 45.0x 42.0% 8.8% -3.19% $8.59B /esi-vs-neu β†’
HXL
Hexcel Corporation
D+ 52/100 55.0x 23.0% 6.2% -2.15% $6.02B /hxl-vs-neu β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001282637

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NewMarket Corp (NEU) reported GAAP revenue of $2.73B (-2.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.79B , and +1.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $418.7M, operating cash flow of $569.0M, and free cash flow of $491.3M (+6.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NEU closed FY2025 with $3.49B in total assets against $883.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.77, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.73B $418.7M $569.0M $491.3M $3.49B $883.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.79B $462.4M $519.6M $462.3M $3.13B $971.3M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.70B $388.9M $576.8M $455.4M $4.06B $950.5M

3. NEU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NEU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, NewMarket Corp (NYSE: NEU) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $783.66 (-2.42% 1D, market cap $7.39B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, NEU ranks #5 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NEU compare to EMN and WLK in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), NEU carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.6x, gross margin of 31.5%, and ROIC of 16.6%. By comparison, EMN (Eastman Chemical Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 16.4x, ROIC 4.8%, cap $7.77B) and WLK (Westlake Corporation) posts a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $8.44B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EMN leads on earnings multiple (16.4x) while NEU leads on capital efficiency (16.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NEU?

Per NEU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001282637), NewMarket Corp generated $2.73B in revenue (-2.2% YoY), $418.7M in net income, and $491.3M in free cash flow against $3.49B in total assets and $883.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (32% profit margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NEU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NEU last traded at $783.66 (-2.42% on volume of 198,117 shares), positioning the stock -11.66% below its 50-day simple moving average ($887.07) and +2.56% above its 200-day simple moving average ($764.13). Across its 52-week range of $580.03 to $981.66, NEU sits at the 50.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 28.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±6.9% ($729.59 to $837.73).

NEU Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is NEU's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for NEU.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 73/100 (B) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NEU β€” NewMarket Corp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:18:15Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NEU carries an RQD Score of 73 with a letter grade of B, labeled "Roarable Buy β€” Good Risk/Reward." The score is built from five pillars:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (18 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 16.6% and an FCF yield of 6.65%. It is the strongest contributor to the score, suggesting the business converts capital into cash at a healthy rate.
  • Whale 13F Flow (8 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is the weakest pillar, covering institutional accumulation and options positioning. A low score here indicates institutional signals are not a clear tailwind.
  • Insider Conviction (16 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, a moderately supportive reading.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is tied to a beta of 0.96 and sector sensitivity. The beta near 1.0 implies market-like volatility rather than defensive or aggressive behavior.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (16 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects an Altman Z of 4.77, a Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5, pointing to a financially sound balance sheet.

For a prospective investor, the investor-relevant takeaway is that the score is driven by cash generation and balance-sheet strength rather than by institutional momentum. Upside drivers would be sustained cash conversion and continued valuation support; the valuation tradeoff is that the stock is priced at a P/E (TTM) of 17.6 and forward P/E of 16.4 following an 8.04% single-session decline, so the entry point has shifted relative to the 52-week range. The weak whale-flow pillar is a reason to watch whether institutional holders follow the fundamentals. This is an analytical framing, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
803.07$7.39B17.616.413.445.531.43%0.96$580.03 - $981.6616.6%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$2725.2M$543.7M$418.7MN/A$491.3M$77.6M$883.4M
FY 2024$2786.6M$590.0M$462.4MN/A$462.3M$77.5M$971.3M
FY 2023$2698.4M$483.0M$388.9MN/A$455.4MN/A$950.5M

Per the SEC financials, revenue moved from $2698.4M (FY 2023) to $2786.6M (FY 2024) before easing to $2725.2M (FY 2025), while net income declined from $462.4M to $418.7M over FY 2024–FY 2025. Per the market data, gross margin is 31.5%, operating margin 20%, and net margin 15.4%, with ROIC at 16.6%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 4.77 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9. Debt declined from $971.3M (FY 2024) to $883.4M (FY 2025), and the Debt/Equity ratio is 0.5 per the RQD forensic pillar.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items reference NEU with a YELLOW light and MARKET WIRE impact label. Headlines include a Yahoo Finance piece suggesting the stock "May Offer A 35% Discount To Cash Flow," a ChartMill piece describing NEU as "A Quality Stock With Strong ROIC and Cash Flow," and a GuruFocus piece noting the stock is "Down 8.0% but Still Overvalued" with a GF Score of 77/100. A Benzinga item references the Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, and additional ChartMill and Yahoo Finance items cover quality-investing framing and stock forecasts. Risk watch items per these headlines include the reported overvaluation framing and the single-session decline. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded for NEU.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's specific products, customers, and end markets, given that the source data only classifies it as Materials / Major Chemicals?
  • What drove the 8.04% single-session decline, and does the Q3 2026 earnings call reference address it?
  • Why does EPS appear as N/A across all reported periods when EPS (TTM) is listed at 45.53?
  • What explains the decline in net income from FY 2024 to FY 2025 despite revenue remaining broadly stable?
  • What is the institutional and analyst positioning behind the weak Whale 13F Flow pillar score of 8 / 20?

NEU Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for NewMarket Corp (NEU) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to NEU Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NEU Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $783.66?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NEU 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NEU:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $947.62 (+18.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NEU (B β€’ RQD 73/100) a Buy at $803.07?

Welcome to the NEU (NewMarket Corp) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 73/100 (Roarable Buy β€” Good Risk/Reward) in Major Chemicals. Bulls point to capital efficiency (16.6% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $618.36 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $803.07

Pump the brakes on NEU β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NEU, but look at what you are paying: 17.6x trailing P/E with 31.5% gross margins. Unless NewMarket Corp expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $971.71 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $803.07

NEU cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NEU, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Chemicals and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $803.07 (52-wk range $580.03 - $981.66), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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