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Stock Ratings / Health Care / NBIX / options
HALO (75) EXEL (89) TWST (52) TECH (72) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NBIX) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$146.10 -0.19% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $146.40

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NBIX) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 73/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (96% profit margin, 16% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 69.0% hit rate) β†’
ROARABLE B β€’ BUY Cap $14.88B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NBIX Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NBIX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: NBIX) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $146.10 (-0.19% 1D, market cap $14.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, NBIX ranks #56 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NBIX compare to HALO and EXEL in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), NBIX carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.1x, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of 15.7%. By comparison, HALO (Halozyme Therapeutics Inc.) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 47.0x, ROIC 18.0%, cap $14.89B) and EXEL (Exelixis Inc.) posts a A grade (89/100 RQD, P/E 21.0x, ROIC 35.1%, cap $16.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EXEL leads on earnings multiple (21.0x) while EXEL leads on capital efficiency (35.1% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NBIX?
β–Ό

Per NBIX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000914475), Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. generated $2.86B in revenue (+21.4% YoY), $478.6M in net income, and $748.7M in free cash flow against $4.63B in total assets and $620.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (96% profit margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $146.41 (+0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) β€’ 26.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 69.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY β€’ B
025507510073
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B Β· Rk B
Cash (18)Whales (11)SEC (18)Macro (11)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.7% Base Target
$195 Bull$156 Base$120 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE NBIX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NBIX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (73/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY NBIX SCORES 73/100 (B) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 26.2% FCF Margin ($748.7M FCF) & 98.2% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 8.13 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 9/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (56.1) create a -9 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$135.13+5.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$142.00+2.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
70
Grade B$146.00+0.1% Next Q
Current
73
Grade B$146.10+7.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C+ (65) β†’ B (73)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NBIX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 73/100 (B) score, NBIX faces multiple-compression risk if 31.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 95.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($146.38) or 200D SMA ($147.51) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($155.96) toward Bear Floor ($119.80).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NBIXβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œNBIX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 73%NO 27%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±4.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (NBIX)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for NBIX.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating NBIX & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on NBIX
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NBIX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.97%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $145.5H $146.4L $145.5C $146.1VOL 831.6K
RES: $148.7SUP: $126.3SMA50: $146.4SMA200: $147.5
$190.0$173.9$157.7$141.5$125.3RES $148.7SUP $126.3$146.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NBIX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ NBIX Butterfly Map β†’ + Track NBIX β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
24.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +21.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NBIX today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NBIX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NBIX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NBIX)

Health Care Rank #56 of 1016 βš”οΈ HALO vs NBIX Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NBIX vs. HALO, EXEL, TWST, TECH)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NBIX) ranks #56 by composite RQD confidence (73/100, grade B) and #81 by equity capitalization ($14.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EXEL leads on earnings valuation at 21.0x trailing P/E, while EXEL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 35.1% ROIC and 96.0% gross margin. EXEL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 89/100 (A) compared with NBIX at 73/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NBIX ACTIVE
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc.
B 73/100 31.1x 96.0% 15.7% -0.19% $14.88B Benchmark Subject
HALO
Halozyme Therapeutics Inc.
B 75/100 47.0x 83.6% 18.0% -0.21% $14.89B /halo-vs-nbix β†’
EXEL
Exelixis Inc.
A 89/100 21.0x 96.0% 35.1% +4.82% $16.40B /exel-vs-nbix β†’
TWST
Twist Bioscience Corporation
D+ 52/100 β€” 94.2% -11.7% -11.92% $11.50B /twst-vs-nbix β†’
TECH
Bio-Techne Corp
B 72/100 155.3x 64.8% 3.4% -0.07% $11.40B /tech-vs-nbix β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000914475

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NBIX) reported GAAP revenue of $2.86B (+21.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.36B , and +51.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $478.6M, operating cash flow of $782.7M, and free cash flow of $748.7M (+34.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, NBIX closed FY2025 with $4.63B in total assets against $620.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.13, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.86B $478.6M $782.7M $748.7M $4.63B $620.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.36B $341.3M $595.4M $557.2M $3.72B $508.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.89B $249.7M $389.9M $305.0M $8.18B $1.91B

3. NBIX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NBIX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: NBIX) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $146.10 (-0.19% 1D, market cap $14.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, NBIX ranks #56 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NBIX compare to HALO and EXEL in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), NBIX carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.1x, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of 15.7%. By comparison, HALO (Halozyme Therapeutics Inc.) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 47.0x, ROIC 18.0%, cap $14.89B) and EXEL (Exelixis Inc.) posts a A grade (89/100 RQD, P/E 21.0x, ROIC 35.1%, cap $16.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EXEL leads on earnings multiple (21.0x) while EXEL leads on capital efficiency (35.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NBIX?

Per NBIX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000914475), Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. generated $2.86B in revenue (+21.4% YoY), $478.6M in net income, and $748.7M in free cash flow against $4.63B in total assets and $620.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (96% profit margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NBIX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NBIX last traded at $146.10 (-0.19% on volume of 1,322,851 shares), positioning the stock -0.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($146.38) and -0.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($147.51). Across its 52-week range of $122.14 to $186.12, NBIX sits at the 37.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±4.5% ($139.53 to $152.67).

NBIX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is NBIX's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for NBIX.

Direct Sub-Reports: NBIX RQD Cockpit NBIX 12M Forecast NBIX Earnings & Move NBIX Dividends & DRIP NBIX Insiders & 13F NBIX Whale Options NBIX Profit Sankey NBIX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 73/100 (B) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NBIX β€” Neurocrine Biosciences Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:14:44Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD rating is 73, graded B, with the verdict "Roarable Buy β€” Good Risk/Reward." Across the five pillars (per the Roarable RQD rating):

  • Fundamental Cash Engine, 18/20: Supported by ROIC of 15.7% and an FCF yield of 5.03%. For a prospective investor, this pillar suggests the business converts capital into operating returns and generates free cash relative to its market value, which is the strongest single driver of the score.
  • Whale 13F Flow, 11/20: Reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The moderate score indicates institutional interest is present but not dominant in the source data; holder-level detail is not available in source data.
  • Insider Conviction, 15/20: Reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A mid-high score suggests some insider activity supportive of the thesis, though the underlying trade detail is not available in source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit, 11/20: Reflects a beta of 1.13 and sector sensitivity. This indicates the stock has modestly above-market price sensitivity, so drawdowns in risk-off regimes could be amplified relative to the broader market.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet, 18/20: Supported by Altman Z of 8.13, Piotroski F of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.18. For a prospective investor, this is the most conservative-leaning pillar, indicating low apparent financial distress risk.

Valuation tradeoffs: the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 31.1 and a forward P/E of 26.1 (per market data), so the rating's upside case depends on earnings growth continuing to compress the multiple. The rating is an analytical grade, not a recommendation to act.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$146.38$14.88B31.126.122.84.710%1.13$122.14 - $186.1215.7%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$2860.5M$619.1M$478.6MN/A$748.7M$713.0M$620.3M
FY 2024$2355.3M$570.5M$341.3MN/A$557.2M$233.0M$508.1M
FY 2023$1887.1M$250.9M$249.7MN/A$305.0MN/A$1915.0M

Revenue, operating income, net income, and free cash flow all rose across the three reported periods (per the SEC financials). Operating margin is 21.6% and net margin is 16.7% (per market data). Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 8.13 and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.18; the balance sheet posture is therefore described as strong by these measures. Debt was $1915.0M in FY 2023 and $620.3M in FY 2025 (per SEC financials).

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Multiple coverage items (Yahoo Finance, ChartMill, Simply Wall St, Yahoo Finance Australia, The Motley Fool, GuruFocus) reference the stock trading and valuation, with headlines variously describing it as trading below fair value, a decent value stock, and undervalued after a 4.4% drop. These are headline characterizations only; underlying analysis is not provided.
  • The GuruFocus item carries a GREEN light tagged CATALYST; the remaining items are YELLOW, tagged MARKET WIRE.
  • Risk watch items: the source data contains no specific regulatory, clinical, or litigation events.
  • Proprietary signals: none (per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph).

Open Questions

  • What specific products and revenue sources drive the reported revenue growth, and how concentrated are they?
  • What is the EPS for each reported fiscal year, given that EPS is N/A across the financial periods?
  • What drove the FY 2023 debt level of $1915.0M and its reduction to $620.3M by FY 2025?
  • What institutional, insider, and Congressional holdings and trades underpin the 11/20 whale and 15/20 insider pillar scores?
  • What pipeline, regulatory, or competitive catalysts could affect the forward P/E of 26.1?

NBIX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NBIX) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to NBIX Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NBIX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $146.10?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NBIX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NBIX:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $172.73 (+18.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NBIX (B β€’ RQD 73/100) a Buy at $146.38?

Welcome to the NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 73/100 (Roarable Buy β€” Good Risk/Reward) in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). Bulls point to capital efficiency (15.7% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (31.1x trailing P/E). Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $115.64 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $146.38

Pump the brakes on NBIX β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NBIX, but look at what you are paying: 31.1x trailing P/E with 96.0% gross margins. Unless Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $166.87 (+14.0%)
Spot @ $146.38

NBIX cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NBIX, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $146.38 (52-wk range $122.14 - $186.12), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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