Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MUSA scores 76 out of 100, grade B+, labeled "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are:

• Fundamental Cash Engine: 17 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 24.5% and an FCF yield of 6.94%. For an investor, this is the strongest pillar: it points to high capital efficiency and meaningful cash generation relative to the market price.
• Whale 13F Flow: 15 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The underlying 13F and options detail is not itemized in the source data, so the score cannot be traced to specific holders.
• Insider Conviction: 17 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The individual transactions are not itemized in the source data.
• Macro Regime Fit: 15 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects a beta of 0.96 and sector sensitivity. A beta near 1.0 implies market-like sensitivity to broad moves rather than amplified swings.
• Forensic Balance Sheet: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects an Altman Z-Score of 3.73, a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 2.76. This is the weakest pillar and the main counterweight to the cash-generation strength.

Investor implications: the upside drivers are high ROIC and strong FCF yield; the valuation tradeoff is a trailing P/E of 21.1 against a forward P/E of 17.7, implying the market expects earnings to move higher, which the investor must judge for themselves; and the balance-sheet pillar signals that leverage, not operations, is the main risk to monitor. This brief is educational and is not personalized financial advice.

Murphy USA Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations industry, per the company profile. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. Revenue figures for FY 2025 and FY 2024 are reported as $0.0M in the SEC financials, so the source data does not support a description of how the company earns revenue. Not available in source data for the remaining business detail.

Per the SEC financials, operating income and net income declined from FY 2023 through FY 2025, and debt fell from $6045.5M in FY 2023 to $1846.0M in FY 2025 while rising from FY 2024 to FY 2025. Per the market data, operating margin is 25.9%, net margin is 16.9%, and ROIC is 24.5%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 3.73 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, with Debt/Equity of 2.76. The balance sheet is highly levered relative to equity by the stated ratio, even though the Altman and Piotroski readings are moderate to sound.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not available in source data. The sector and industry labels (Consumer Discretionary; Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations) are the only classification available.

• What drove the FY 2025 operating and net income declines relative to FY 2023, and what is the revenue figure given that the SEC financials report $0.0M for FY 2025 and FY 2024?
• What were the actual Q3 2026 results and guidance behind the earnings headlines, given that only headlines and no article bodies are provided?
• Which institutional holders and insiders account for the whale-flow and insider-conviction pillar scores, and in what direction and size?
• What is the debt maturity and interest cost structure, given Debt/Equity of 2.76 and debt of $1846.0M against cash of $28.9M?
• Why does the FY 2025 EPS field read N/A, and how does the TTM EPS of 25.6 reconcile with reported net income?