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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MTN / insiders
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Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$151.83 -1.75% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $151.06

Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $5.51B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MTN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE: MTN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $151.83 (-1.75% 1D, market cap $5.51B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MTN ranks #354 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTN compare to SGHC and ENHA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), MTN carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 22.1%. By comparison, SGHC (Super Group (SGHC) Limited) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.45B) and ENHA (Enhanced Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.3%, cap $5.11B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CHDN leads on earnings multiple (16.3x) while MTN leads on capital efficiency (22.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTN?
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Per MTN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-07-31, CIK 0000812011), Vail Resorts Inc. generated $2.96B in revenue (+2.7% YoY), $298.0M in net income, and $421.5M in free cash flow against $5.60B in total assets and $2.23B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $151.06 (-0.51%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 14.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk D-
Cash (12)Whales (16)SEC (5)Macro (10)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target
$180 Bull$153 Base$119 Bear
📬 FREE MTN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MTN SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$152.57-0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$151.41+0% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$151.46+0.2% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$151.83+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MTN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, MTN faces multiple-compression risk if 18.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($143.39) or 200D SMA ($138.32) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($152.51) toward Bear Floor ($118.96).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MTN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 28, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

MTN Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (MTN)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on MTN. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MTN Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
MTN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.14%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $152.0H $154.5L $151.8C $151.8VOL 427.1K
RES: $156.8SUP: $133.2SMA50: $143.4SMA200: $138.3
$163.3$151.6$139.8$128.0$116.2RES $156.8SUP $133.2$151.82026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTN Butterfly Map → + Track MTN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTN)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #354 of 1011 ⚔️ SGHC vs MTN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MTN vs. SGHC, ENHA, CHDN, SPHR)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) ranks #354 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #254 by equity capitalization ($5.51B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CHDN leads on earnings valuation at 16.3x trailing P/E, while MTN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.1% ROIC and — gross margin. MTN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MTN ACTIVE
Vail Resorts Inc.
C- 59/100 18.5x — 22.1% -1.75% $5.51B Benchmark Subject
SGHC
Super Group (SGHC) Limited
D 47/100 — — — -0.28% $5.45B /sghc-vs-mtn →
ENHA
Enhanced Group Inc. (Class A)
E 33/100 — — -8.3% -26.96% $5.11B /enha-vs-mtn →
CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated
D+ 55/100 16.3x — 9.2% +4.03% $6.25B /chdn-vs-mtn →
SPHR
Sphere Entertainment Co.
D- 43/100 121.6x — -7.3% -3.50% $4.06B /sphr-vs-mtn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-07-31 • CIK 0000812011

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-07-31), Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) reported GAAP revenue of $2.96B (+2.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.89B , and +2.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $298.0M, operating cash flow of $554.9M, and free cash flow of $421.5M (-8.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTN closed FY2025 with $5.60B in total assets against $2.23B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.56, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-07-31 $2.96B $298.0M $554.9M $421.5M $5.60B $2.23B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-07-31 $2.89B $246.3M $589.0M $459.2M $5.52B $2.12B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-07-31 $2.89B $285.1M $637.9M $507.8M $3.47B $811.3M

3. MTN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE: MTN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $151.83 (-1.75% 1D, market cap $5.51B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MTN ranks #354 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MTN compare to SGHC and ENHA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), MTN carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 22.1%. By comparison, SGHC (Super Group (SGHC) Limited) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.45B) and ENHA (Enhanced Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.3%, cap $5.11B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CHDN leads on earnings multiple (16.3x) while MTN leads on capital efficiency (22.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTN?

Per MTN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-07-31, CIK 0000812011), Vail Resorts Inc. generated $2.96B in revenue (+2.7% YoY), $298.0M in net income, and $421.5M in free cash flow against $5.60B in total assets and $2.23B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MTN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTN last traded at $151.83 (-1.75% on volume of 433,086 shares), positioning the stock +5.89% above its 50-day simple moving average ($143.39) and +9.77% above its 200-day simple moving average ($138.32). Across its 52-week range of $118.51 to $163.34, MTN sits at the 74.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($143.02 to $160.64).

MTN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are MTN insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies MTN leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

Direct Sub-Reports: MTN RQD Cockpit MTN 12M Forecast MTN Earnings & Move MTN Dividends & DRIP MTN Insiders & 13F MTN Whale Options MTN Profit Sankey MTN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MTN — Vail Resorts Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:11Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MTN scores 59 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with a verdict label of "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 22.1% and an FCF yield of 7.65%. Strong returns on capital are offset by a score that remains in the lower half of the pillar's range.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 16 / 20. The RQD rating cites institutional accumulation and options positioning as a relative strength.
  • Insider Conviction: 16 / 20. The RQD rating cites SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow as a relative strength.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects a beta of 1.07 and sector sensitivity, indicating the stock tends to move somewhat more than the market.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 5 / 20. This is the weakest pillar. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 1.56, the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 6.9.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the implication is a mixed profile. The highest-weighted cash-generation and capital-return metrics are supportive, and the flow-based pillars (institutional and insider activity) are the strongest signals in the rating. The balance-sheet pillar is the principal constraint: a low Altman Z-Score and high Debt/Equity mean the company's leverage is a material risk factor relative to its earnings base, and that risk is more relevant in a tighter credit or weaker macro environment. Macro fit is moderate, with beta above 1 implying amplified exposure to market swings. The "Hold — Cautious Neutral" verdict reflects these offsetting factors rather than a directional call.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
154.53$5.51B18.517.210.78.365.96%1.07$118.51 - $163.3422.1%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news data, the headlines are dominated by activist-investor activity. Reports reference Oasis Management increasing its stake to 9% amid an intensifying proxy fight, and a report describing an activist reportedly eyeing a proxy fight to force a sale of the company. A Reuters report describes the company's largest investor backing management against Oasis. Investing.com reports Stifel raising its price target on turnaround confidence (tagged as a green catalyst). A VailDaily.com analysis raises operational questions about management changes. A Yahoo Finance item notes the stock trading up. Per the Butterfly graph, there are no proprietary signals or supply-chain links. The principal watch item is the outcome of the proxy contest, which the source data does not resolve.

Open Questions

  • What is the outcome and timeline of the proxy contest involving Oasis Management and the company's management?
  • What is the EPS (reported) for each fiscal period, given EPS is listed as N/A in the financials?
  • How will the rising debt load (from $811.3M in FY 2023 to $2229.8M in FY 2025) be serviced, and what are the maturity and interest-rate terms?
  • What is the company's revenue mix and segment breakdown?
  • What are the specific analyst price targets and consensus rating?

MTN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MTN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $151.83?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTN 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MTN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $166.89 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MTN (C- • RQD 59/100) a Buy at $154.53?

Welcome to the MTN (Vail Resorts Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 59/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation. Bulls point to capital efficiency (22.1% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $126.71 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $154.53

Pump the brakes on MTN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MTN, but look at what you are paying: 18.5x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Vail Resorts Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $179.25 (+16.0%)
Spot @ $154.53

MTN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MTN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $154.53 (52-wk range $118.51 - $163.34), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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