Marsh (MRSH) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.9% Move

$200.62 +1.82% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $201.76

Marsh (MRSH) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 80/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 11% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $93.69B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MRSH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Marsh (NYSE: MRSH) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $200.62 (+1.82% 1D, market cap $93.69B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MRSH ranks #4 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MRSH compare to AJG and AON in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), MRSH carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.6%. By comparison, AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 46.0x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $68.74B) and AON (Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A)) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 18.5x, ROIC 15.0%, cap $68.24B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AON leads on earnings multiple (18.5x) while WTW leads on capital efficiency (16.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRSH?
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Per MRSH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000062709), Marsh generated $26.98B in revenue (+10.3% YoY), $4.16B in net income, and $5.00B in free cash flow against $58.71B in total assets and $18.32B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $201.76 (+0.57%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 18.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 80/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.3% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510080
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B
Cash (16)Whales (18)SEC (15)Macro (15)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.9% Base Target
$260 Bull$220 Base$165 Bear
📬 FREE MRSH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MRSH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (80/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MRSH SCORES 80/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+18/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18.5% FCF Margin ($5.00B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit15/20 pts (-5 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (64) create a -5 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
72
Grade B$177.01+8.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
75
Grade B+$191.26-0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
77
Grade B+$190.67+5.2% Next Q
Current
80
Grade B+$200.62+8.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (72) → B+ (80)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MRSH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 80/100 (B+) score, MRSH faces multiple-compression risk if 22.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($182.49) or 200D SMA ($177.32) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($220.48) toward Bear Floor ($164.51).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MRSH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MRSH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.9% Swing Band

±$9.83 Expected Swing
$190.79 (-4.9%)Spot $200.62$210.45 (+4.9%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MRSH Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 80/100

Trailing EPS: $8.75 • YoY Revenue Growth: 10.3%

Model Bullish Setup (80/100)Model Risk Weight (20/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$26.98B$4.16B$5.00B52%
FY 20242024-12-31$24.46B$4.06B$3.99B52%
FY 20232023-12-31$22.74B$3.76B$3.23B52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MRSH & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MRSH
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
MRSH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.51%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $192.3H $200.6L $192.3C $200.6VOL 2.42M
RES: $202.8SUP: $163.6SMA50: $182.5SMA200: $177.3
$205.9$192.6$179.2$165.8$152.5RES $202.8SUP $163.6$200.62026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MRSH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
16.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MRSH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MRSH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MRSH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MRSH)

Financials Rank #4 of 1096 ⚔️ AJG vs MRSH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MRSH vs. AJG, AON, WTW, BRO)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Marsh (MRSH) ranks #4 by composite RQD confidence (80/100, grade B+) and #36 by equity capitalization ($93.69B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AON leads on earnings valuation at 18.5x trailing P/E, while WTW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.6% ROIC and — gross margin. MRSH currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 80/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MRSH ACTIVE
Marsh
B+ 80/100 22.5x — 10.6% +1.82% $93.69B Benchmark Subject
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
C+ 69/100 46.0x — 5.3% +2.93% $68.74B /ajg-vs-mrsh →
AON
Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A)
C+ 68/100 18.5x — 15.0% +0.01% $68.24B /aon-vs-mrsh →
WTW
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company
B 74/100 18.6x — 16.6% +1.15% $29.79B /wtw-vs-mrsh →
BRO
Brown & Brown Inc.
B 72/100 21.3x — 4.7% +2.83% $22.50B /bro-vs-mrsh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000062709

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Marsh (MRSH) reported GAAP revenue of $26.98B (+10.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $24.46B , and +18.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $4.16B, operating cash flow of $5.29B, and free cash flow of $5.00B (+25.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MRSH closed FY2025 with $58.71B in total assets against $18.32B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $26.98B $4.16B $5.29B $5.00B $58.71B $18.32B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $24.46B $4.06B $4.30B $3.99B $56.48B $19.43B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $22.74B $3.76B $4.26B $3.23B $51.53B $12.06B

3. MRSH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MRSH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Marsh (NYSE: MRSH) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $200.62 (+1.82% 1D, market cap $93.69B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MRSH ranks #4 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MRSH compare to AJG and AON in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), MRSH carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.6%. By comparison, AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 46.0x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $68.74B) and AON (Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A)) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 18.5x, ROIC 15.0%, cap $68.24B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AON leads on earnings multiple (18.5x) while WTW leads on capital efficiency (16.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRSH?

Per MRSH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000062709), Marsh generated $26.98B in revenue (+10.3% YoY), $4.16B in net income, and $5.00B in free cash flow against $58.71B in total assets and $18.32B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MRSH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MRSH last traded at $200.62 (+1.82% on volume of 2,916,831 shares), positioning the stock +9.93% above its 50-day simple moving average ($182.49) and +13.14% above its 200-day simple moving average ($177.32). Across its 52-week range of $156.60 to $202.70, MRSH sits at the 95.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.9% ($190.79 to $210.45).

MRSH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MRSH's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Marsh (MRSH)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is MRSH stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.9% event move for MRSH, spanning a range between $190.79 and $210.45.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 80/100 (B+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MRSH — Marsh: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:09:55Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MRSH carries an RQD Score of 80 and a letter grade of B+, labeled "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 (ROIC 10.6%; FCF yield 5.34%), Whale 13F Flow at 18/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 16/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 15/20 (Beta 1.06; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 9/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The strongest pillar is institutional flow, which is the largest single contributor to the score; the weakest pillars are macro fit and balance sheet, each at 15/20. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on cash generation and institutional positioning, while the valuation tradeoff is visible in the P/E of 22.5 (TTM) against the forward P/E of 20.9, which implies expected earnings growth is already partly reflected in price. The beta of 1.06 indicates the stock has moved roughly in line with the broader market, so macro-regime sensitivity is present but not extreme. This is an analytical summary of the rating, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
197.03$93.69B22.520.916.98.751.81%1.06$156.6 - $202.710.6%

Business

Marsh (MRSH) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Specialty Insurers industry, per the company profile. Per the SEC financials, the company generated FY 2025 revenue of $26981.0M. The source data does not describe specific products, customer segments, or revenue-model details beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$26981.0M$6223.0M$4160.0MN/A$5001.0M$2687.0M$18320.0M
FY 2024$24458.0M$5817.0M$4060.0MN/A$3986.0M$2398.0M$19428.0M
FY 2023$22736.0M$5282.0M$3756.0MN/A$3234.9MN/A$12058.0M

Per the SEC financials, revenue, operating income, net income, and free cash flow rose in each reported period. Per the market data section, operating margin is 23.1%, net margin is 15.4%, and gross margin is 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 10.6%, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9. Debt declined from $19428.0M in FY 2024 to $18320.0M in FY 2025, and the Debt/Equity ratio is 0.5 per the Roarable RQD rating.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the headlines are predominantly market-wire coverage with a yellow signal, including reports on a possible valuation gap ("Marsh McLennan (MRSH) Stock May Be 37% Undervalued Despite Reinsurance Launch"), a quality-candidate assessment that notes caveats, and a trading-up report. One item is flagged as a green catalyst: an earnings-beat headline suggesting the results could be a game changer for the stock. Risk watch items are limited to the caveat-framed coverage; the feed does not describe specific operational or regulatory risks. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded.

Open Questions

  • What drove the reported FY 2025 earnings beat referenced in the news feed, and what was the EPS figure, given that reported EPS is N/A in the financials?
  • Why is gross margin reported as 0%, and does that reflect the business model or a data gap?
  • What is the composition of the "reinsurance launch" referenced in the news feed, and how material is it to revenue?
  • How do the institutional accumulation and insider cluster flows in the RQD rating reconcile with the absence of holder and analyst data in the source?
  • What explains the change in cash between FY 2023 (not available) and FY 2024 and FY 2025?

MRSH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Marsh (MRSH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MRSH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MRSH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $200.62?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MRSH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MRSH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $232.50 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MRSH (B+ • RQD 80/100) a Buy at $197.03?

Welcome to the MRSH (Marsh) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 80/100 (Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Specialty Insurers. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $157.62 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $197.03

Pump the brakes on MRSH — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MRSH, but look at what you are paying: 22.5x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Marsh expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $232.50 (+18.0%)
Spot @ $197.03

MRSH cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MRSH, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Specialty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $197.03 (52-wk range $156.60 - $202.70), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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