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Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$33.95 -0.96% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.83

Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $860.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MPB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MPB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Mid Penn Bancorp (NASDAQ: MPB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $33.95 (-0.96% 1D, market cap $860.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MPB ranks #489 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MPB compare to ORRF and CCBG in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MPB carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.9%. By comparison, ORRF (Orrstown Financial Services Inc.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $863.9M) and CCBG (Capital City Bank Group) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $870.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ORRF leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while ORRF leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPB?
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Per MPB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000879635), Mid Penn Bancorp generated $2.58B in revenue (+12.1% YoY), $56.2M in net income, and $71.8M in free cash flow against $6.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.83 (-0.36%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 2.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk D+
Cash (14)Whales (6)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target
$41 Bull$34 Base$26 Bear
📬 FREE MPB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MPB SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.8% FCF Margin ($71.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$35.88+1.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$36.51-5.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$34.34-1.1% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$33.95-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MPB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, MPB faces multiple-compression risk if 15.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($36.02) or 200D SMA ($34.40) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($33.80) toward Bear Floor ($26.36).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MPB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

MPB Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (MPB)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on MPB. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MPB)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MPB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MPB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.70%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $34.28H $34.28L $33.95C $33.95VOL 96.9K
RES: $36.53SUP: $33.73SMA50: $36.02SMA200: $34.40
$39.74$37.30$34.86$32.41$29.97RES $36.53SUP $33.73$33.952026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MPB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MPB Butterfly Map → + Track MPB →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
7.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPB)

Financials Rank #489 of 1097 ⚔️ ORRF vs MPB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MPB vs. ORRF, CCBG, GSBC, FCBC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) ranks #489 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #583 by equity capitalization ($860.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ORRF leads on earnings valuation at 10.8x trailing P/E, while ORRF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and — gross margin. ORRF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MPB at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MPB ACTIVE
Mid Penn Bancorp
D+ 57/100 15.4x — 6.9% -0.96% $860.4M Benchmark Subject
ORRF
Orrstown Financial Services Inc.
B 73/100 10.8x — 13.7% -1.17% $863.9M /orrf-vs-mpb →
CCBG
Capital City Bank Group
B- 70/100 14.2x — 11.1% -0.62% $870.4M /ccbg-vs-mpb →
GSBC
Great Southern Bancorp Inc.
B- 70/100 12.4x — 11.2% -0.96% $873.4M /gsbc-vs-mpb →
FCBC
First Community Bankshares Inc. (VA)
D+ 57/100 72.8x — 2.4% +1.43% $887.7M /fcbc-vs-mpb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000879635 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) reported GAAP revenue of $2.58B (+12.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.30B , and +1195.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $56.2M, operating cash flow of $80.0M, and free cash flow of $71.8M (+61.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPB closed FY2025 with $6.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.58B $56.2M $80.0M $71.8M $6.13B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.30B $49.4M $51.4M $44.5M $5.47B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $198.9M $37.4M $52.3M $52.3M — —

3. MPB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MPB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Mid Penn Bancorp (NASDAQ: MPB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $33.95 (-0.96% 1D, market cap $860.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MPB ranks #489 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MPB compare to ORRF and CCBG in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MPB carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.9%. By comparison, ORRF (Orrstown Financial Services Inc.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $863.9M) and CCBG (Capital City Bank Group) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $870.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ORRF leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while ORRF leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPB?

Per MPB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000879635), Mid Penn Bancorp generated $2.58B in revenue (+12.1% YoY), $56.2M in net income, and $71.8M in free cash flow against $6.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MPB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MPB last traded at $33.95 (-0.96% on volume of 96,900 shares), positioning the stock -5.75% below its 50-day simple moving average ($36.02) and -1.31% below its 200-day simple moving average ($34.40). Across its 52-week range of $27.98 to $39.15, MPB sits at the 53.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($32.35 to $35.55).

Direct Sub-Reports: MPB RQD Cockpit MPB 12M Forecast MPB Earnings & Move MPB Dividends & DRIP MPB Insiders & 13F MPB Whale Options MPB Profit Sankey MPB News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MPB — Mid Penn Bancorp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $33.95 (-0.96% 1D, market capitalization $860.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 8.26%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Major Banks industry, with a market capitalization of $0.9B. The reported periods show net income but no reported revenue or operating income values.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) reported $2.58B in annual revenue (up from $2.30B in FY2024, +12.1% YoY) and $56.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($198.9M revenue, $37.4M net income) through FY2025, MPB scaled operating cash flow to $80.0M and free cash flow to $71.8M, backed by $6.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 8.26% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $27.98 – $39.15 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 15.4x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations. The only sector context available is the Financials / Major Banks classification and the Beta of 1.0 per market data.

  • Key Question #1: Can MPB sustain or expand its — operating margin and 6.9% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.58B and free cash flow of $71.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MPB's 14.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MPB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MPB Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MPB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $33.95?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MPB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MPB:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $40.40 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (16/20) and FY 2025 net income of $56.2M with $71.8M free cash flow show real cash generation at a 14.3 forward P/E.

Don't sleep on MPB's setup in Financials. Insider conviction (16/20) and FY 2025 net income of $56.2M with $71.8M free cash flow show real cash generation at a 14.3 forward P/E.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (57/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@MultipleCompression Shorting a 6/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $33.95 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $25.80 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $33.95

The RQD rating of 58 (D+) with a Sell/Trim verdict, weak whale flow (7/20), and two RED RISK WATCH news items on Q3 margin softening an

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short MPB above $33.95. The RQD rating of 58 (D+) with a Sell/Trim verdict, weak whale flow (7/20), and two RED RISK WATCH news items on Q3 margin softening and a revenue miss.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20) and FCF yield (8.26%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $39.15.

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