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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / LAD / forecast
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Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$299.72 +0.90% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $299.64

Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $6.42B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LAD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LAD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Lithia Motors Inc. (NYSE: LAD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $299.72 (+0.90% 1D, market cap $6.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LAD ranks #660 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LAD compare to RUSHB and AN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), LAD carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.8x, gross margin of 15.2%, and ROIC of 11.1%. By comparison, RUSHB (Rush Enterprises Inc. (Class B)) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $6.63B) and AN (AutoNation Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 8.6x, ROIC 18.9%, cap $5.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LAD leads on earnings multiple (7.8x) while AN leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LAD?
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Per LAD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001023128), Lithia Motors Inc. generated $37.63B in revenue (+4.0% YoY), $819.6M in net income, and $5.8M in free cash flow against $25.11B in total assets and $8.32B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $299.63 (-0.03%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510045
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-
Cash (8)Whales (8)SEC (12)Macro (5)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target
$461 Bull$282 Base$220 Bear
📬 FREE LAD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LAD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LAD SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.34 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (48.4) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
37
Grade E$286.78+4.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$299.53-2.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
42
Grade D$290.73+3.1% Next Q
Current
45
Grade D$299.72-6.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (37) → D (45)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LAD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LAD currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($319.49) and Max Pain ($314.71) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $461.46.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LAD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LAD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your LAD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $299.72: 33.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $220.11
$7,344
$-2,656 (-26.6%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $282.19
$9,415
$-585 (-5.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $461.46
$15,396
+$5,396 (+54.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$29374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$43469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$25158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LAD)

  • ✓Walkthrough of LAD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
LAD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.28%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $288.7H $299.7L $288.7C $299.7VOL 256.7K
RES: $431.5SUP: $260.5SMA50: $319.5SMA200: $307.1
$452.4$398.8$345.2$291.6$237.9RES $431.5SUP $260.5$299.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LAD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LAD Butterfly Map → + Track LAD →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-6.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LAD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LAD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LAD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LAD)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #660 of 1011 ⚔️ RUSHB vs LAD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (LAD vs. RUSHB, AN, KMX, RUSHA)

Industry: Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) ranks #660 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #230 by equity capitalization ($6.42B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LAD leads on earnings valuation at 7.8x trailing P/E, while AN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 17.9% gross margin. RUSHB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with LAD at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LAD ACTIVE
Lithia Motors Inc.
D 45/100 7.8x 15.2% 11.1% +0.90% $6.42B Benchmark Subject
RUSHB
Rush Enterprises Inc. (Class B)
B- 71/100 24.9x 20.7% 13.7% -0.09% $6.63B /rushb-vs-lad →
AN
AutoNation Inc.
D- 40/100 8.6x 17.9% 18.9% +6.08% $5.60B /an-vs-lad →
KMX
CarMax Inc
D+ 57/100 32.3x 10.8% 1.7% -1.05% $7.97B /kmx-vs-lad →
RUSHA
Rush Enterprises Inc. Cl A
C 63/100 19.1x 20.7% 13.7% -1.29% $5.08B /rusha-vs-lad →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001023128

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) reported GAAP revenue of $37.63B (+4.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $36.19B , and +21.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $819.6M, operating cash flow of $356.7M, and free cash flow of $5.8M (-92.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, LAD closed FY2025 with $25.11B in total assets against $8.32B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.34, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $37.63B $819.6M $356.7M $5.8M $25.11B $8.32B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $36.19B $796.7M $425.1M $73.7M $23.12B $7.40B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $31.04B $1.00B -$472.4M -$1.87B $37.25B $8.72B

3. LAD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LAD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Lithia Motors Inc. (NYSE: LAD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $299.72 (+0.90% 1D, market cap $6.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LAD ranks #660 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LAD compare to RUSHB and AN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), LAD carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.8x, gross margin of 15.2%, and ROIC of 11.1%. By comparison, RUSHB (Rush Enterprises Inc. (Class B)) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $6.63B) and AN (AutoNation Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 8.6x, ROIC 18.9%, cap $5.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LAD leads on earnings multiple (7.8x) while AN leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LAD?

Per LAD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001023128), Lithia Motors Inc. generated $37.63B in revenue (+4.0% YoY), $819.6M in net income, and $5.8M in free cash flow against $25.11B in total assets and $8.32B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LAD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LAD last traded at $299.72 (+0.90% on volume of 330,740 shares), positioning the stock -6.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($319.49) and -2.39% below its 200-day simple moving average ($307.06). Across its 52-week range of $239.78 to $439.49, LAD sits at the 30.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.6% ($270.95 to $328.49).

LAD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is LAD's 12-month stock price target?

Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $282.19 (-5.8% from $299.72), with a bull-case target of $461.46 and a bear-case floor of $220.11.

Is LAD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates LAD D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 45/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: LAD RQD Cockpit LAD 12M Forecast LAD Earnings & Move LAD Dividends & DRIP LAD Insiders & 13F LAD Whale Options LAD Profit Sankey LAD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

LAD — Lithia Motors Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:19:05Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, LAD scores 45 out of 100, earning a letter grade of D and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 8 / 20 (ROIC 11.1%; FCF yield 0.09%), Whale 13F Flow at 8 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 12 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 5 / 20 (Beta 0.93; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 12 / 20 (Altman Z 2.34; Piotroski F 5/9; Debt/Equity 1.18).

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the weakest pillars are Macro Regime Fit and Fundamental Cash Engine, which together indicate limited support from the current macro backdrop and a thin free-cash-flow yield relative to the price. The balance-sheet and insider pillars sit mid-range, suggesting neither distress nor strong conviction signals. The rating's verdict label frames the composite as a distribution warning, meaning the aggregate signals lean toward underperformance rather than accumulation. Upside drivers would need to come from improved cash conversion or a shift in institutional and insider positioning; valuation tradeoffs are reflected in a low trailing and forward P/E alongside a very low FCF yield, indicating that earnings multiples alone do not capture the cash-generation weakness.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
297.06$6.42B7.87.35.937.910.86%0.93$239.78 - $439.4911.1%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the headlines include an earnings-power valuation piece (YELLOW), a dividend increase following a strong quarter (YELLOW), a Q3 earnings and revenue beat (YELLOW), a Seeking Alpha downgrade warning flagged as RISK WATCH (RED), a MarketBeat report citing an average price target of $402.60 (YELLOW), and a GuruFocus piece citing a GF Value of $390.59 versus a price of $292.51 following a 3.5% decline (YELLOW). The RED risk-watch item is the only one carrying a negative flag. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded (sector: Consumer Discretionary; supply chain: NONE).

Open Questions

  • What are the cash, EPS, and free-cash-flow figures for FY 2025 and FY 2024 that the financials table leaves as "N/A," and what is the company's cash balance?
  • What drove the decline in free cash flow from $73.7M to $5.8M while debt increased, and is that trend expected to continue?
  • Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what is the direction of their recent activity?
  • What are the consensus rating and analyst revenue or earnings estimates behind the referenced price targets?
  • What is the supply-chain exposure and sector-correlation profile that would explain the Macro Regime Fit pillar score of 5 / 20?

LAD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LAD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LAD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $299.72?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LAD 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LAD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $261.41 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is LAD (D • RQD 45/100) a Buy at $297.06?

Welcome to the LAD (Lithia Motors Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 45/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $234.68 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $297.06

Pump the brakes on LAD — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on LAD, but look at what you are paying: 7.8x trailing P/E with 15.2% gross margins. Unless Lithia Motors Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $368.35 (+24.0%)
Spot @ $297.06

LAD cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on LAD, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $297.06 (52-wk range $239.78 - $439.49), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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