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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / LAD / earnings
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Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.6% Move

$299.72 +0.90% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $299.64

Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $6.42B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LAD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LAD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Lithia Motors Inc. (NYSE: LAD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $299.72 (+0.90% 1D, market cap $6.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LAD ranks #660 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LAD compare to RUSHB and AN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), LAD carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.8x, gross margin of 15.2%, and ROIC of 11.1%. By comparison, RUSHB (Rush Enterprises Inc. (Class B)) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $6.63B) and AN (AutoNation Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 8.6x, ROIC 18.9%, cap $5.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LAD leads on earnings multiple (7.8x) while AN leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LAD?
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Per LAD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001023128), Lithia Motors Inc. generated $37.63B in revenue (+4.0% YoY), $819.6M in net income, and $5.8M in free cash flow against $25.11B in total assets and $8.32B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $299.63 (-0.03%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510045
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-
Cash (8)Whales (8)SEC (12)Macro (5)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target
$461 Bull$282 Base$220 Bear
📬 FREE LAD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LAD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LAD SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.34 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (48.4) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
37
Grade E$286.78+4.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$299.53-2.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
42
Grade D$290.73+3.1% Next Q
Current
45
Grade D$299.72-6.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (37) → D (45)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LAD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LAD currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($319.49) and Max Pain ($314.71) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $461.46.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LAD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LAD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.6% Swing Band

±$28.77 Expected Swing
$270.95 (-9.6%)Spot $299.72$328.49 (+9.6%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

LAD Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 45/100

Trailing EPS: $37.91 • YoY Revenue Growth: 4%

Model Bullish Setup (45/100)Model Risk Weight (55/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$37.63B$819.6M$5.8M15.2%
FY 20242024-12-31$36.19B$796.7M$73.7M15.4%
FY 20232023-12-31$31.04B$1.00B-$1.87B15.2%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LAD)

  • ✓Walkthrough of LAD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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LAD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.28%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $288.7H $299.7L $288.7C $299.7VOL 256.7K
RES: $431.5SUP: $260.5SMA50: $319.5SMA200: $307.1
$452.4$398.8$345.2$291.6$237.9RES $431.5SUP $260.5$299.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LAD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LAD Butterfly Map → + Track LAD →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-6.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LAD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LAD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LAD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LAD)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #660 of 1011 ⚔️ RUSHB vs LAD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (LAD vs. RUSHB, AN, KMX, RUSHA)

Industry: Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) ranks #660 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #230 by equity capitalization ($6.42B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LAD leads on earnings valuation at 7.8x trailing P/E, while AN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 17.9% gross margin. RUSHB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with LAD at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LAD ACTIVE
Lithia Motors Inc.
D 45/100 7.8x 15.2% 11.1% +0.90% $6.42B Benchmark Subject
RUSHB
Rush Enterprises Inc. (Class B)
B- 71/100 24.9x 20.7% 13.7% -0.09% $6.63B /rushb-vs-lad →
AN
AutoNation Inc.
D- 40/100 8.6x 17.9% 18.9% +6.08% $5.60B /an-vs-lad →
KMX
CarMax Inc
D+ 57/100 32.3x 10.8% 1.7% -1.05% $7.97B /kmx-vs-lad →
RUSHA
Rush Enterprises Inc. Cl A
C 63/100 19.1x 20.7% 13.7% -1.29% $5.08B /rusha-vs-lad →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001023128

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) reported GAAP revenue of $37.63B (+4.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $36.19B , and +21.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $819.6M, operating cash flow of $356.7M, and free cash flow of $5.8M (-92.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, LAD closed FY2025 with $25.11B in total assets against $8.32B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.34, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $37.63B $819.6M $356.7M $5.8M $25.11B $8.32B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $36.19B $796.7M $425.1M $73.7M $23.12B $7.40B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $31.04B $1.00B -$472.4M -$1.87B $37.25B $8.72B

3. LAD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LAD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Lithia Motors Inc. (NYSE: LAD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $299.72 (+0.90% 1D, market cap $6.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LAD ranks #660 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LAD compare to RUSHB and AN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), LAD carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.8x, gross margin of 15.2%, and ROIC of 11.1%. By comparison, RUSHB (Rush Enterprises Inc. (Class B)) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $6.63B) and AN (AutoNation Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 8.6x, ROIC 18.9%, cap $5.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LAD leads on earnings multiple (7.8x) while AN leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LAD?

Per LAD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001023128), Lithia Motors Inc. generated $37.63B in revenue (+4.0% YoY), $819.6M in net income, and $5.8M in free cash flow against $25.11B in total assets and $8.32B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LAD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LAD last traded at $299.72 (+0.90% on volume of 330,740 shares), positioning the stock -6.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($319.49) and -2.39% below its 200-day simple moving average ($307.06). Across its 52-week range of $239.78 to $439.49, LAD sits at the 30.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.6% ($270.95 to $328.49).

LAD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is LAD's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is LAD stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±9.6% event move for LAD, spanning a range between $270.95 and $328.49.

Direct Sub-Reports: LAD RQD Cockpit LAD 12M Forecast LAD Earnings & Move LAD Dividends & DRIP LAD Insiders & 13F LAD Whale Options LAD Profit Sankey LAD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

LAD — Lithia Motors Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:19:05Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, LAD scores 45 out of 100, earning a letter grade of D and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 8 / 20 (ROIC 11.1%; FCF yield 0.09%), Whale 13F Flow at 8 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 12 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 5 / 20 (Beta 0.93; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 12 / 20 (Altman Z 2.34; Piotroski F 5/9; Debt/Equity 1.18).

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the weakest pillars are Macro Regime Fit and Fundamental Cash Engine, which together indicate limited support from the current macro backdrop and a thin free-cash-flow yield relative to the price. The balance-sheet and insider pillars sit mid-range, suggesting neither distress nor strong conviction signals. The rating's verdict label frames the composite as a distribution warning, meaning the aggregate signals lean toward underperformance rather than accumulation. Upside drivers would need to come from improved cash conversion or a shift in institutional and insider positioning; valuation tradeoffs are reflected in a low trailing and forward P/E alongside a very low FCF yield, indicating that earnings multiples alone do not capture the cash-generation weakness.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
297.06$6.42B7.87.35.937.910.86%0.93$239.78 - $439.4911.1%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the headlines include an earnings-power valuation piece (YELLOW), a dividend increase following a strong quarter (YELLOW), a Q3 earnings and revenue beat (YELLOW), a Seeking Alpha downgrade warning flagged as RISK WATCH (RED), a MarketBeat report citing an average price target of $402.60 (YELLOW), and a GuruFocus piece citing a GF Value of $390.59 versus a price of $292.51 following a 3.5% decline (YELLOW). The RED risk-watch item is the only one carrying a negative flag. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded (sector: Consumer Discretionary; supply chain: NONE).

Open Questions

  • What are the cash, EPS, and free-cash-flow figures for FY 2025 and FY 2024 that the financials table leaves as "N/A," and what is the company's cash balance?
  • What drove the decline in free cash flow from $73.7M to $5.8M while debt increased, and is that trend expected to continue?
  • Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what is the direction of their recent activity?
  • What are the consensus rating and analyst revenue or earnings estimates behind the referenced price targets?
  • What is the supply-chain exposure and sector-correlation profile that would explain the Macro Regime Fit pillar score of 5 / 20?

LAD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LAD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LAD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $299.72?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LAD 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LAD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $261.41 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is LAD (D • RQD 45/100) a Buy at $297.06?

Welcome to the LAD (Lithia Motors Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 45/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $234.68 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $297.06

Pump the brakes on LAD — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on LAD, but look at what you are paying: 7.8x trailing P/E with 15.2% gross margins. Unless Lithia Motors Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $368.35 (+24.0%)
Spot @ $297.06

LAD cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on LAD, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $297.06 (52-wk range $239.78 - $439.49), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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