Why KMX Stock slipped -1.05% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$55.58 -1.05% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.37

CarMax Inc (KMX) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $7.97B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is KMX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, CarMax Inc (NYSE: KMX) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $55.58 (-1.05% 1D, market cap $7.97B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, KMX ranks #405 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does KMX compare to RUSHB and LAD in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), KMX carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.3x, gross margin of 10.8%, and ROIC of 1.7%. By comparison, RUSHB (Rush Enterprises Inc. (Class B)) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $6.63B) and LAD (Lithia Motors Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 7.8x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $6.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LAD leads on earnings multiple (7.8x) while MUSA leads on capital efficiency (24.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KMX?
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Per KMX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-02-28, CIK 0001170010), CarMax Inc generated $25.88B in revenue (-1.8% YoY), $247.0M in net income, and $1.24B in free cash flow against $25.56B in total assets and $8.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.37 (-0.38%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 4.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D
Cash (11)Whales (14)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target
$69 Bull$55 Base$43 Bear
📬 FREE KMX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KMX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY KMX SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.6% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (55.3) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$50.81+5.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$53.82+0.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$53.89+3.1% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$55.58-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the KMX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, KMX faces multiple-compression risk if 32.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($56.83) or 200D SMA ($49.46) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($55.33) toward Bear Floor ($43.16).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KMX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “KMX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why KMX Stock slipped -1.05% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

CarMax Inc (KMX) slipped -1.05% to $55.58, trading at 72% of its 52-week range ($30.26 – $65.28). Stretched risk/reward at 32x P/E (2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 72% of its 52-week range ($30.26 – $65.28) with RSI-14 at 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.6% around $55.58 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 10.8% gross margin and $1.2B annual free cash flow.
Live KMX Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREThe Motley Fool • 10h ago
How to Buy CarMax Stock (KMX) in 2026

The Motley Fool report covering CarMax Inc (KMX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KMX)

  • ✓Walkthrough of KMX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
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KMX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +50.70%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $53.99H $56.17L $53.99C $55.58VOL 2.99M
RES: $72.20SUP: $47.00SMA50: $56.83SMA200: $49.46
$67.39$58.66$49.92$41.19$32.46RES $72.20SUP $47.00$55.582026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KMX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
25.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KMX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KMX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KMX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KMX)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #405 of 1011 ⚔️ RUSHB vs KMX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (KMX vs. RUSHB, LAD, MUSA, AN)

Industry: Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, CarMax Inc (KMX) ranks #405 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #200 by equity capitalization ($7.97B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LAD leads on earnings valuation at 7.8x trailing P/E, while MUSA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MUSA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with KMX at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
KMX ACTIVE
CarMax Inc
D+ 57/100 32.3x 10.8% 1.7% -1.05% $7.97B Benchmark Subject
RUSHB
Rush Enterprises Inc. (Class B)
B- 71/100 24.9x 20.7% 13.7% -0.09% $6.63B /rushb-vs-kmx →
LAD
Lithia Motors Inc.
D 45/100 7.8x 15.2% 11.1% +0.90% $6.42B /lad-vs-kmx →
MUSA
Murphy USA Inc.
B+ 76/100 21.1x — 24.5% -0.93% $9.93B /musa-vs-kmx →
AN
AutoNation Inc.
D- 40/100 8.6x 17.9% 18.9% +6.08% $5.60B /an-vs-kmx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-02-28 • CIK 0001170010

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-02-28), CarMax Inc (KMX) reported GAAP revenue of $25.88B (-1.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $26.35B , and -2.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $247.0M, operating cash flow of $1.78B, and free cash flow of $1.24B (+694.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, KMX closed FY2025 with $25.56B in total assets against $8.77B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.62, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-02-28 $25.88B $247.0M $1.78B $1.24B $25.56B $8.77B
FY2024 (FY) 2025-02-28 $26.35B $501.0M $624.4M $156.5M $27.30B $9.49B
FY2023 (FY) 2024-02-29 $26.54B $479.0M $458.6M -$735.5M $31.84B $7.45B

3. KMX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KMX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, CarMax Inc (NYSE: KMX) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $55.58 (-1.05% 1D, market cap $7.97B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, KMX ranks #405 in composite RQD confidence.

How does KMX compare to RUSHB and LAD in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), KMX carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.3x, gross margin of 10.8%, and ROIC of 1.7%. By comparison, RUSHB (Rush Enterprises Inc. (Class B)) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $6.63B) and LAD (Lithia Motors Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 7.8x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $6.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LAD leads on earnings multiple (7.8x) while MUSA leads on capital efficiency (24.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KMX?

Per KMX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-02-28, CIK 0001170010), CarMax Inc generated $25.88B in revenue (-1.8% YoY), $247.0M in net income, and $1.24B in free cash flow against $25.56B in total assets and $8.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is KMX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KMX last traded at $55.58 (-1.05% on volume of 2,606,348 shares), positioning the stock -2.20% below its 50-day simple moving average ($56.83) and +12.37% above its 200-day simple moving average ($49.46). Across its 52-week range of $30.26 to $65.28, KMX sits at the 72.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.6% ($50.80 to $60.36).

KMX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is KMX stock moving today?

Why KMX Stock slipped -1.05% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 32x P/E (2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

KMX — CarMax Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:17:51Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, KMX scores 57 out of 100, a letter grade of D+, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 (ROIC 1.7%; FCF yield 15.59%), Whale 13F Flow at 14/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 12/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 10/20 (Beta 1.16; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20 (Altman Z 1.62; Piotroski F 5/9; Debt/Equity 1.35). Taken together, the rating frames a company where the strongest pillar, institutional flow, is only moderately supportive and where the weakest pillars concern the durability of returns and balance-sheet strength. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests mainly on the FCF yield of 15.59% being a sign that cash generation is stronger than accounting profit suggests, while the valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 32.3 and EV/EBITDA of 21 against a 1.7% ROIC. The rating therefore reads as a caution on price relative to demonstrated returns rather than a judgment on the business's survival, and the Altman Z of 1.62 and Debt/Equity of 1.35 are the forensic items an investor would need to weigh before any position decision.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
56.17$7.97B32.330211.740%1.16$30.26 - $65.281.7%

Business

CarMax Inc (KMX) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations industry. Per the company profile, it operates as a retailer in this industry. Per the market data, its gross margin is 10.8%, operating margin 1.2%, and net margin 1%. The source data does not specify the customer base or the detailed revenue mix beyond these categories.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$25881.1M$291.5M$247.0MN/A$1242.9M$204.9M$8774.0M
FY 2024$26353.4M$591.2M$501.0MN/A$156.5M$271.9M$9488.7M
FY 2023$26536.0M$565.2M$479.0MN/A$-735.5MN/A$7451.3M

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $26536.0M in FY 2023 to $25881.1M in FY 2025, while net income fell from $479.0M to $247.0M over the same span. Free cash flow was $1242.9M in FY 2025 after $156.5M in FY 2024 and $-735.5M in FY 2023. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 1.7%, the Altman Z-Score is 1.62, and the Piotroski F-Score is 5 of 9, with Debt/Equity of 1.35. Reported debt stood at $8774.0M in FY 2025 against cash of $204.9M.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The recent news feed contains six Yahoo! Finance, Motley Fool, and Yahoo Finance items, all tagged "MARKET WIRE" with a YELLOW light. Headlines include "CarMax (KMX) Stock Looks Expensive Even After Stronger Earnings," "CarMax Down 5.8% Since Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold KMX?," "CarMax (KMX) Earnings Show Turnaround Progress, But Margin Pressure Remains," and "CarMax (KMX) Stock Trades Up, Here Is Why." The item summaries are generic and do not contain specific figures. The recurring themes across headlines are valuation concerns, earnings improvement, and margin pressure. The Butterfly supply-chain graph reports no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependency mapping is therefore not available in source data. Sector placement (Consumer Discretionary; Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations) is the only contextual link provided.

Open Questions

  • What drove the decline in operating income from $591.2M in FY 2024 to $291.5M in FY 2025, and how much of that reflects margin pressure versus volume?
  • What is the composition of the reported FCF swing from $-735.5M in FY 2023 to $1242.9M in FY 2025, and is it recurring?
  • Do the reported EPS figures and the FY 2023 cash balance exist in the filings, given they are recorded as N/A or missing?
  • What institutional and insider positioning exists behind the Whale 13F and Insider Conviction pillar scores?
  • How does the reported debt of $8774.0M compare with the lease and financing obligations in the full filings, which the source data does not break out?

KMX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for CarMax Inc (KMX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to KMX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

KMX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $55.58?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON KMX 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on KMX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $60.66 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is KMX (D+ • RQD 57/100) a Buy at $56.17?

Welcome to the KMX (CarMax Inc) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 57/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (32.3x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $46.06 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $56.17

Pump the brakes on KMX — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on KMX, but look at what you are paying: 32.3x trailing P/E with 10.8% gross margins. Unless CarMax Inc expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $67.97 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $56.17

KMX cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on KMX, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $56.17 (52-wk range $30.26 - $65.28), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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