Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$2.06 -10.82% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.02

Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 22/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.43B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is KEEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Keel Infrastructure Corp. (NASDAQ: KEEL) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 22/100 at a spot price of $2.06 (-10.82% 1D, market cap $1.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, KEEL ranks #1088 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does KEEL compare to SECZ and ATLC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), KEEL carries a Roarable E (22/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -10.4%. By comparison, SECZ (Securitize Corp.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.38B) and ATLC (Atlanticus Holdings Corporation) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 12.3x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $1.49B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATLC leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while PWP leads on capital efficiency (55.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KEEL?
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Per KEEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001812477), Keel Infrastructure Corp. generated $229.3M in revenue (+72.0% YoY), -$284.5M in net income, and -$226.6M in free cash flow against $1.30B in total assets and $572.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.02 (-2.14%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (22/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510022
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (7)Whales (4)SEC (5)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16% Base Target
$8 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE KEEL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KEEL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (22/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY KEEL SCORES 22/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (32% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+5/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
30
Grade E$2.95-20% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
27
Grade E$2.36-7.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
25
Grade E$2.18-5.5% Next Q
Current
22
Grade E$2.06-11.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (30) → E (22)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a KEEL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While KEEL currently carries a cautious 22/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.15) and Max Pain ($2.16) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.74.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KEEL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “KEEL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
38.830 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
3 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE7% OF RANGE
L: $2$2.06H: $7
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 7 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 8 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on KEEL

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (35)

-10.4% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -15.88% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (25)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (18)

7/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 3/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like KEEL
  • ✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KEEL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of KEEL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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KEEL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.62%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $2.43H $2.43L $2.06C $2.06VOL 20.45M
RES: $3.66SUP: $0.12SMA50: $3.15SMA200: $3.44
$7.74$6.19$4.64$3.09$1.54RES $3.66SUP $0.12$2.062026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KEEL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +72.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KEEL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KEEL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KEEL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KEEL)

Financials Rank #1088 of 1096 ⚔️ SECZ vs KEEL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (KEEL vs. SECZ, ATLC, PWP, TRIN)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) ranks #1088 by composite RQD confidence (22/100, grade E) and #501 by equity capitalization ($1.43B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ATLC leads on earnings valuation at 12.3x trailing P/E, while PWP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.7% ROIC and — gross margin. ATLC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with KEEL at 22/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
KEEL ACTIVE
Keel Infrastructure Corp.
E 22/100 — — -10.4% -10.82% $1.43B Benchmark Subject
SECZ
Securitize Corp.
D 44/100 — — — -10.32% $1.38B /secz-vs-keel →
ATLC
Atlanticus Holdings Corporation
C+ 69/100 12.3x — 19.8% -4.78% $1.49B /atlc-vs-keel →
PWP
Perella Weinberg Partners (Class A)
D 49/100 28.4x — 55.7% +5.21% $1.36B /pwp-vs-keel →
TRIN
Trinity Capital Inc.
D- 43/100 — — — -1.51% $1.63B /trin-vs-keel →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001812477

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) reported GAAP revenue of $229.3M (+72.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $133.3M , and +90.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$284.5M, operating cash flow of -$226.6M, and free cash flow of -$226.6M (-59.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, KEEL closed FY2025 with $1.30B in total assets against $572.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $229.3M -$284.5M -$226.6M -$226.6M $1.30B $572.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $133.3M -$28.4M -$141.7M -$141.7M $663.1M $1.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $120.4M -$55.5M -$106.9M -$106.9M — —

3. KEEL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KEEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Keel Infrastructure Corp. (NASDAQ: KEEL) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 22/100 at a spot price of $2.06 (-10.82% 1D, market cap $1.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, KEEL ranks #1088 in composite RQD confidence.

How does KEEL compare to SECZ and ATLC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), KEEL carries a Roarable E (22/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -10.4%. By comparison, SECZ (Securitize Corp.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.38B) and ATLC (Atlanticus Holdings Corporation) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 12.3x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $1.49B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATLC leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while PWP leads on capital efficiency (55.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KEEL?

Per KEEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001812477), Keel Infrastructure Corp. generated $229.3M in revenue (+72.0% YoY), -$284.5M in net income, and -$226.6M in free cash flow against $1.30B in total assets and $572.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is KEEL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KEEL last traded at $2.06 (-10.82% on volume of 33,791,119 shares), positioning the stock -34.60% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.15) and -40.12% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.44). Across its 52-week range of $1.68 to $7.37, KEEL sits at the 6.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.80 to $2.32).

KEEL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell KEEL stock right now?

Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 22/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is KEEL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

KEEL's 12-month base price target is $1.73 (range $1.35 to $7.74), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 22/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

KEEL — Keel Infrastructure Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:29:15Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, KEEL scores 22 out of 100 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars, each scored out of 20, are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 7 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of -10.4% and an FCF yield of -15.88%. For a prospective investor, negative returns on invested capital and negative free-cash-flow yield mean the business is not currently converting capital into surplus cash, so valuation support must come from future operating change rather than present cash generation.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 4 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. The source data contains no holder detail to explain the score beyond the grade itself, so the investor implication is limited to the observation that institutional signal is weak.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A low score indicates insider flow is not providing a conviction signal in support of the stock.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 3 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity noted. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move roughly with the market; the low pillar score indicates the current regime is not favorable for this profile.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 5 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 3/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. These figures combine to flag elevated forensic risk and weak financial-health signals.

Taken together, the investor takeaway is that the upside case depends on a turnaround in operating economics that the current numbers do not yet show, while downside risks from negative margins, negative FCF, and a weak forensic profile are prominent. Valuation tradeoffs are difficult to assess because earnings-based multiples are not available in the source data. The rating is an analytical summary and not personalized financial advice.

Business

Keel Infrastructure Corp. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Finance: Consumer Services industry, per the company profile. Revenue for FY 2025 was $229.3M per the SEC financials, indicating a business with reported top-line activity. The source data does not describe the products or services sold, the customer base, or the specific revenue model.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$229.3M$-149.6M$-284.5MN/A$-226.6MN/A$572.4M
FY 2024$133.3M$-28.0M$-28.4MN/A$-141.7MN/A$1.4M
FY 2023$120.4M$-50.0M$-55.5MN/A$-106.9MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $120.4M in FY 2023 to $229.3M in FY 2025, while operating and net losses widened over the same span, with FY 2025 net loss at $-284.5M. Per the market data, the gross margin is 0%, the operating margin is -60%, and the net margin is -60%, and ROIC is -10.4%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9. Debt rose from $1.4M in FY 2024 to $572.4M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials, and the Debt/Equity ratio is 0.5 per the Roarable RQD rating.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, KEEL is covered across several outlets. Headlines reference a 157% run that "lingers," a stock that is "sliding," and a Seeking Alpha piece on whether the value of its power pipeline "depends on what it can monetize." A Capmad report states that the stock slides after the company announces a 5 November Q3 earnings release. A MarketBeat report indicates the stock falls 5%. Items are tagged YELLOW except the MarketBeat item, which is tagged RED under RISK WATCH. The butterfly supply-chain graph contains no proprietary signals and no links.

Open Questions

  • What is the company's specific product and customer mix that generates the reported revenue, and how does it relate to the "power pipeline" referenced in the news feed?
  • What drove the widening of the FY 2025 net loss to $-284.5M and the increase in debt to $572.4M, and what is the financing structure?
  • Are the cash balances for any period available, since cash is N/A across all reported periods?
  • What is the basis for the 157% run referenced in news coverage, and how does it reconcile with the -10.4% ROIC?
  • What are the upcoming Q3 earnings expectations and how do they compare with the reported trajectory?

KEEL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to KEEL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

KEEL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.06?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON KEEL 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on KEEL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.03 (-12.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is KEEL (E • RQD 22/100) a Buy at $2.31?

Welcome to the KEEL (Keel Infrastructure Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 22/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Finance: Consumer Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.87 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $2.31

Pump the brakes on KEEL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on KEEL, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Keel Infrastructure Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.93 (+26.8%)
Spot @ $2.31

KEEL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on KEEL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Finance: Consumer Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $2.31 (52-wk range $1.68 - $7.37), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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