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Stock Ratings / Real Estate / JOE / dividends
IRS (50) AXR (65) MTH (59) CVCO (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

St. Joe Company (JOE) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$70.02 -2.48% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $69.88

St. Joe Company (JOE) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (43% profit margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate) →
ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $4.06B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on JOE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is JOE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $70.02 (-2.48% 1D, market cap $4.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, JOE ranks #4 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does JOE compare to IRS and AXR in the Real Estate sector?
▼

Within the Real Estate sector (Homebuilding), JOE carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 35.1x, gross margin of 43.1%, and ROIC of 18.1%. By comparison, IRS (IRSA Inversiones Y Representaciones S.A. Global )) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.24B) and AXR (AMREP Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $112.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTH leads on earnings multiple (9.3x) while JOE leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JOE?
▼

Per JOE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000745308), St. Joe Company generated $513.2M in revenue (+27.4% YoY), $115.6M in net income, and $186.6M in free cash flow against $1.52B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (43% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $69.87 (-0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 36.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510076
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B-
Cash (18)Whales (15)SEC (16)Macro (12)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.1% Base Target
$89 Bull$76 Base$57 Bear
📬 FREE JOE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JOE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (76/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY JOE SCORES 76/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 36.4% FCF Margin ($186.6M FCF) & 43.1% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.43 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (64.7) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
68
Grade B-$65.99+2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
71
Grade B$67.52+0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
73
Grade B$68.11+2.8% Next Q
Current
76
Grade B+$70.02+7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (68) → B+ (76)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the JOE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, JOE faces multiple-compression risk if 35.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 40.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($66.56) or 200D SMA ($66.03) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($75.69) toward Bear Floor ($57.42).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JOE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “JOE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 76%NO 24%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
2.63% Total Yield
0.83% Cash ($0.58/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
14% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (17.1% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $48,481

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $1,275/yr
$11.7K
Yr 1
$13.7K
Yr 2
$16.1K
Yr 3
$18.8K
Yr 4
$22.0K
Yr 5
$25.8K
Yr 6
$30.2K
Yr 7
$35.4K
Yr 8
$41.4K
Yr 9
$48.5K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in JOE & A-Rated Leaders

  • ✓12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on JOE and its top sector peer
  • ✓Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
JOE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.43%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $68.13H $71.80L $68.13C $70.02VOL 311.2K
RES: $72.88SUP: $64.96SMA50: $66.56SMA200: $66.03
$73.78$69.67$65.56$61.45$57.33RES $72.88SUP $64.96$70.022026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JOE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 JOE Butterfly Map → + Track JOE →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
27.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +27.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JOE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JOE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JOE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JOE)

Real Estate Rank #4 of 51 ⚔️ IRS vs JOE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Real Estate Peer Comparison (JOE vs. IRS, AXR, MTH, CVCO)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 51 tracked Real Estate securities in the Roarable RQD universe, St. Joe Company (JOE) ranks #4 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #8 by equity capitalization ($4.06B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTH leads on earnings valuation at 9.3x trailing P/E, while JOE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 43.1% gross margin. JOE currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 76/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
JOE ACTIVE
St. Joe Company
B+ 76/100 35.1x 43.1% 18.1% -2.48% $4.06B Benchmark Subject
IRS
IRSA Inversiones Y Representaciones S.A. Global )
D 50/100 — — — -2.99% $1.24B /irs-vs-joe →
AXR
AMREP Corporation
C 65/100 10.8x — 11.0% -1.14% $112.4M /axr-vs-joe →
MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation
C- 59/100 9.3x — 8.0% -0.03% $4.20B /mth-vs-joe →
CVCO
Cavco Industries Inc.
B- 70/100 22.0x 23.5% 17.6% +13.11% $4.21B /cvco-vs-joe →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000745308

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), St. Joe Company (JOE) reported GAAP revenue of $513.2M (+27.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $402.7M , and +31.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $115.6M, operating cash flow of $190.7M, and free cash flow of $186.6M (+86.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, JOE closed FY2025 with $1.52B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.43, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $513.2M $115.6M $190.7M $186.6M $1.52B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $402.7M $74.2M $108.0M $100.2M $1.54B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $389.3M $77.7M $103.8M $103.8M — —

3. JOE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JOE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $70.02 (-2.48% 1D, market cap $4.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, JOE ranks #4 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JOE compare to IRS and AXR in the Real Estate sector?

Within the Real Estate sector (Homebuilding), JOE carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 35.1x, gross margin of 43.1%, and ROIC of 18.1%. By comparison, IRS (IRSA Inversiones Y Representaciones S.A. Global )) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.24B) and AXR (AMREP Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $112.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTH leads on earnings multiple (9.3x) while JOE leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JOE?

Per JOE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000745308), St. Joe Company generated $513.2M in revenue (+27.4% YoY), $115.6M in net income, and $186.6M in free cash flow against $1.52B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (43% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JOE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JOE last traded at $70.02 (-2.48% on volume of 372,324 shares), positioning the stock +5.20% above its 50-day simple moving average ($66.56) and +6.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($66.03). Across its 52-week range of $53.99 to $73.54, JOE sits at the 82.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($65.96 to $74.08).

JOE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does JOE pay a dividend and is it safe?

St. Joe Company (JOE) offers a 0.83% cash dividend yield ($0.58 annualized) and 2.63% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

Direct Sub-Reports: JOE RQD Cockpit JOE 12M Forecast JOE Earnings & Move JOE Dividends & DRIP JOE Insiders & 13F JOE Whale Options JOE Profit Sankey JOE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 76/100 (B+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

JOE — St. Joe Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:22:23Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, JOE scores 76 out of 100 (grade B+), labeled "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of 18.1% and an FCF yield of 4.6%. This is the strongest pillar and suggests the business converts capital into cash at a healthy rate. The tradeoff is that the stock's valuation multiples (see Snapshot) are elevated relative to the cash yield.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score indicates moderate-to-positive institutional interest, but the underlying 13F holder detail is not available in source data.
  • Insider Conviction: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score indicates moderate insider/congressional signal; the individual transactions are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity noted. This is the weakest pillar, implying the stock moves roughly in line with the market and carries sector-level macro exposure without a clear defensive offset.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 4.43, Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. These point to a financially sound balance sheet with low leverage.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the key takeaways are: the cash-generation and balance-sheet pillars are the main support for the rating; the macro-fit pillar is the main drag; and the valuation (P/E TTM of 35.1 versus forward P/E of 29.5) implies that a good deal of expected earnings growth is already priced in. Upside depends on the company sustaining its cash conversion while the multiple holds; downside risk comes from multiple compression if earnings fail to keep pace. This is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
71.8$4.06B35.129.526.22.050.83%1.0$53.99 - $73.5418.1%

Business

St. Joe Company (JOE) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Real Estate sector, operating in the Homebuilding industry, per the company profile. Per the company profile, the market capitalization is $4.1B. Per the SEC financials, the company reports revenue, operating income, and free cash flow across FY 2023–FY 2025. Not available in source data: a detailed description of specific products, customer segments, or revenue-mix breakdown.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$513.2M$146.2M$115.6MN/A$186.6M$129.6MN/A
FY 2024$402.7M$95.6M$74.2MN/A$100.2M$88.8MN/A
FY 2023$389.3M$90.7M$77.7MN/A$103.8MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $389.3M in FY 2023 to $513.2M in FY 2025, and FCF rose from $103.8M to $186.6M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 43.1%, operating margin 28.5%, and net margin 22.5%, with ROIC at 18.1%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 4.43 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.5, indicating a strong balance-sheet posture. Net income in FY 2023 ($77.7M) was higher than in FY 2024 ($74.2M) despite lower revenue, a pattern the source data does not explain.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links. Not available in source data: upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations. A prospective investor should note that the homebuilding exposure implied by the industry classification is not mapped to any specific counterparties in the source data. The most relevant 2nd-order watch item in the available news is the Florida custom-home plot offering, which points to land-and-development activity, but the source data does not quantify its impact or link it to a supply chain.

Open Questions

  • What is the full Q3 2026 revenue and earnings detail, and how does it compare to the FY 2025 run-rate?
  • What drove the FY 2023 net income ($77.7M) to exceed FY 2024 ($74.2M) despite lower revenue?
  • Which specific institutions and insiders are driving the whale and insider pillar scores?
  • What is the supply-chain mapping for the homebuilding and land-development business, given the Butterfly graph is empty?
  • What is the company's debt, EPS, and cash position for FY 2024 and FY 2025, which are missing from the financials?

JOE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for St. Joe Company (JOE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to JOE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

JOE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $70.02?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON JOE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on JOE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $84.72 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is JOE (B+ • RQD 76/100) a Buy at $71.80?

Welcome to the JOE (St. Joe Company) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 76/100 (Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Homebuilding. Bulls point to capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (35.1x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $57.44 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $71.80

Pump the brakes on JOE — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on JOE, but look at what you are paying: 35.1x trailing P/E with 43.1% gross margins. Unless St. Joe Company expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $91.90 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $71.80

JOE cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on JOE, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Homebuilding and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $71.80 (52-wk range $53.99 - $73.54), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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