Geo Group Inc (GEO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Per the Roarable RQD rating, GEO scores 48 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

• Fundamental Cash Engine: 7 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 6.6% and an FCF yield of -3.32%. For an investor, the weakest pillar signals that the business is not currently converting its earnings into free cash flow for shareholders, and that return on invested capital is modest relative to the company's cost of capital and debt load.
• Whale / 13F Flow: 11 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. A mid-range score indicates neither strong institutional conviction nor clear distribution.
• Insider Conviction: 9 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A below-midpoint score indicates insider activity does not provide meaningful confirmation of the stock's value.
• Macro Regime Fit: 11 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity considered. The stock moves in line with the broad market, offering no defensive cushion or special macro tailwind.
• Forensic Balance Sheet: 10 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 1.1. These readings sit in a middle zone: the balance sheet is not in acute distress, but leverage and cash generation warrant caution.

Taken together, the composite suggests a stock that screens cheaply on earnings multiples but has weak cash generation, leverage that matters, and no strong insider or institutional confirmation. Upside depends on the company converting reported earnings into cash and on the buyback program supporting per-share value; the RQD framework views the present setup as a distribution warning rather than an accumulation signal.

Geo Group Inc (GEO) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Homebuilding industry, per the profile section. Not available in source data: the specific products, customers, and revenue mix. The source data reports a gross margin of 0% and an operating margin of 9.8% per the market data section, but does not describe how the company generates revenue beyond the sector classification.

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $2413.2M in FY 2023 to $2631.5M in FY 2025, while operating income declined from $352.4M to $257.5M over the same span. Per the market data, the operating margin is 9.8% and the net margin is 9.7%, with ROIC of 6.6%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 5 of 9. Per the SEC financials, FCF turned negative at $-124.9M in FY 2025 after positive readings in prior years, and debt stood at $1649.3M against cash of $69.0M.

Per the recent news section, the most prominent catalyst is the sale of the Adelanto, California ICE Processing Center Complex, comprised of three facilities totaling 2,644 beds, for $950 Million, alongside an increase in the share repurchase authorization to $1.25 Billion. Related coverage describes the buyback as enabled by debt redemption and frames the stock as potentially undervalued as the buyback expands, though these are third-party characterizations. Trading-action headlines report the stock trading up on the day, and a Trefis piece addresses whether to buy or sell ahead of the midterms.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, a proprietary ACCOUNTING_MIRAGE signal is flagged with the terminal label "ACCRUAL & WORKING CAPITAL WATCH," a severity score of 91, and a bearish direction. The signal reports net income growth of +220.0% against operating cash flow growth of -70.0%, a cash conversion gap of +290.0%, and a +44.9% expansion in non-cash current assets and receivables relative to revenue growth. The graph flags upcoming 10-Q cash realization as the item to monitor for accrual mean-reversion.

Not available in source data for upstream and downstream dependencies: the Butterfly graph lists supply_chain as NONE and an empty set of butterfly links. Sector and industry are recorded as Consumer Discretionary and Homebuilding respectively, but no sector correlations are supplied. The one second-order item the source data does support is the accrual divergence flagged above: if reported earnings are not converting to operating cash flow, the 2nd-order risk is that working-capital build (receivables and non-cash current assets) absorbs cash and may need to reverse. Investors should watch whether the upcoming 10-Q confirms cash realization or extends the gap.

Not available in source data for analyst consensus, ratings, or price targets: the analyst data section is NONE. Not available in source data for SEC Form 4 insider, 13F institutional, or Congressional trades: the holders section is NONE.

• Does operating cash flow recover in line with reported net income in the next 10-Q, or does the accrual gap persist?
• What portion of the $950 Million Adelanto sale proceeds is directed to debt reduction versus the $1.25 Billion buyback, and how does that affect the $1649.3M debt load?
• Why did operating income decline from $352.4M in FY 2023 to $257.5M in FY 2025 while revenue grew?
• What are the company's specific products, customers, and revenue segments, given that the source data gives only a sector classification?
• What analyst coverage, institutional ownership, and insider activity exists to confirm or challenge the current RQD distribution warning?