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Stock Ratings / Financials / IX / forecast
OBDC (65) BBDC (65) TROO (40) KB (58) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

ORIX Corporation (IX) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$36.83 -1.39% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.67

ORIX Corporation (IX) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $40.70B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on IX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is IX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, ORIX Corporation (NYSE: IX) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $36.83 (-1.39% 1D, market cap $40.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, IX ranks #478 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does IX compare to OBDC and BBDC in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Diversified Financial Services), IX carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, OBDC (Blue Owl Capital Corporation) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $5.18B) and BBDC (Barings BDC Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $912.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OBDC leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while IX leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IX?
▼

For ORIX Corporation (IX), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #478 in Financials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.67 (-0.44%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 15.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510058
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (9)SEC (15)Macro (10)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
$45 Bull$37 Base$29 Bear
📬 FREE IX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±2.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY IX SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 15.8% FCF Margin ($899.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
66
Grade B-$36.84-0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
63
Grade C+$36.57+1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$36.93-0.3% Next Q
Current
58
Grade D+$36.83+0% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (66) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the IX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, IX faces multiple-compression risk if 32.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($38.18) or 200D SMA ($36.13) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($36.83) toward Bear Floor ($28.73).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “IX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your IX Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $36.83: 271.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $28.73
$7,801
$-2,199 (-22.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $36.83
$10,000
+$0 (+0.0%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $44.51
$12,085
+$2,085 (+20.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$3874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$4269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$3358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring IX)

  • ✓Walkthrough of IX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
IX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.08%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $36.87H $37.35L $36.83C $36.83VOL 222.3K
RES: $45.35SUP: $35.92SMA50: $38.18SMA200: $36.13
$43.37$39.30$35.23$31.16$27.09RES $45.35SUP $35.92$36.832026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

IX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 IX Butterfly Map → + Track IX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IX)

Financials Rank #478 of 1096 ⚔️ OBDC vs IX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (IX vs. OBDC, BBDC, TROO, KB)

Industry: Diversified Financial Services (4 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ORIX Corporation (IX) ranks #478 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #74 by equity capitalization ($40.70B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OBDC leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while IX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. OBDC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with IX at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
IX ACTIVE
ORIX Corporation
D+ 58/100 32.8x — 9.9% -1.39% $40.70B Benchmark Subject
OBDC
Blue Owl Capital Corporation
C 65/100 8.3x — 6.4% -1.05% $5.18B /obdc-vs-ix →
BBDC
Barings BDC Inc.
C 65/100 8.9x — 8.8% -0.69% $912.0M /bbdc-vs-ix →
TROO
TROOPS Inc.
D- 40/100 — — -35.0% -4.76% $282.2M /troo-vs-ix →
KB
KB Financial Group Inc
D+ 58/100 32.8x — 9.9% -1.59% $40.62B /kb-vs-ix →

2. IX Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

ORIX Corporation (IX) operates in Diversified Financial Services (Financials) with an equity capitalization of $40.70B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 27.6x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.

3. IX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is IX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, ORIX Corporation (NYSE: IX) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $36.83 (-1.39% 1D, market cap $40.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, IX ranks #478 in composite RQD confidence.

How does IX compare to OBDC and BBDC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Diversified Financial Services), IX carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, OBDC (Blue Owl Capital Corporation) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $5.18B) and BBDC (Barings BDC Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $912.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OBDC leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while IX leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IX?

For ORIX Corporation (IX), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #478 in Financials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is IX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

IX last traded at $36.83 (-1.39% on volume of 209,432 shares), positioning the stock -3.54% below its 50-day simple moving average ($38.18) and +1.94% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.13). Across its 52-week range of $24.24 to $42.39, IX sits at the 69.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±2.4% ($35.95 to $37.71).

IX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is IX's 12-month stock price target?

ORIX Corporation (IX) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $36.83 (+0% from $36.83), with a bull-case target of $44.51 and a bear-case floor of $28.73.

Is IX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates IX D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 58/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: IX RQD Cockpit IX 12M Forecast IX Earnings & Move IX Dividends & DRIP IX Insiders & 13F IX Whale Options IX Profit Sankey IX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

IX — ORIX Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:08:55Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, IX scores 58 out of 100, grading D+ with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20 (ROIC 9.9%; FCF yield 2.21%), Whale 13F Flow 9/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 12/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 10/20 (beta 0.93; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 15/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The strongest pillar is the forensic balance sheet, which indicates comparatively clean financial-health markers. The weakest pillars are whale flow and macro fit, both scoring 9 to 10 out of 20. For a prospective investor, the rating points to limited near-term upside drivers from institutional sponsorship and modest cash-generation efficiency relative to the valuation. Per the Snapshot data, the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 32.8 and an EV/EBITDA of 21, so the market is pricing in substantial growth or recovery that the cash-yield pillar (FCF yield 2.21%) does not independently confirm. The rating is a quantitative summary of the source data and does not constitute a recommendation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
37.35$40.7B32.827.6211.140%0.93$24.24 - $42.399.9%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the catalysts include the following headlines, all rated YELLOW:

  • A Yahoo Finance report describes ORIX JREIT shares drifting as H1 earnings leave debt questions.
  • A Globe and Mail report describes an extraordinary report filed on a ¥464.5 Million restricted stock disposal.
  • A Stock Titan report describes Solis leading fundraising at ORIX USA after raising over $1 billion in real estate strategies.
  • A Stock Titan report describes a share buyback of up to ¥250B authorized, with millions of shares repurchased in September.
  • An ad-hoc-news.de report describes an insurance unit merger and an analyst target of USD 44.50.

Risk watch items include the debt questions raised in the H1 earnings coverage and the restricted stock disposal. Proprietary signals: none. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are present.

Open Questions

  • What are the reported revenue, operating income, net income, and free cash flow figures by period, given that the financials section is empty?
  • What is the scale and nature of the debt concerns referenced in the H1 earnings coverage?
  • What is the size and timing of the share buyback relative to the market capitalization?
  • What analyst consensus rating and price targets exist beyond the single USD 44.50 target referenced in news?
  • What institutional, insider, and Congressional holdings and trades exist, given the holders section is empty?

IX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ORIX Corporation (IX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to IX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

IX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $36.83?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON IX 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on IX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $40.34 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is IX (D+ • RQD 58/100) a Buy at $37.35?

Welcome to the IX (ORIX Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 58/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Diversified Financial Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (32.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $28.39 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $37.35

Pump the brakes on IX — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on IX, but look at what you are paying: 32.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless ORIX Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $45.57 (+22.0%)
Spot @ $37.35

IX cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on IX, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Diversified Financial Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $37.35 (52-wk range $24.24 - $42.39), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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