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Stock Ratings / Technology / IPGP / forecast
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IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$72.59 -4.11% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.92

IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $3.09B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on IPGP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is IPGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, IPG Photonics Corporation (NASDAQ: IPGP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $72.59 (-4.11% 1D, market cap $3.09B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, IPGP ranks #599 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does IPGP compare to PENG and OSIS in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), IPGP carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 103.5x, gross margin of 38.0%, and ROIC of 0.6%. By comparison, PENG (Penguin Solutions Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 139.5x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $3.13B) and OSIS (OSI Systems Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 21.9x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $3.14B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ENPH leads on earnings multiple (19.9x) while PENG leads on capital efficiency (12.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IPGP?
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Per IPGP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001111928), IPG Photonics Corporation generated $1.00B in revenue (+2.7% YoY), $31.1M in net income, and -$3.5M in free cash flow against $2.42B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.91 (-0.93%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510029
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (6)Whales (4)SEC (13)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13% Base Target
$164 Bull$63 Base$49 Bear
📬 FREE IPGP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IPGP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY IPGP SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (45% of score)

Altman Z-Score 9.07 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+6/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 38% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
37
Grade E$75.85-4.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
34
Grade E$72.49+2.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
32
Grade E$74.34-2.4% Next Q
Current
29
Grade E$72.59-9.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (37) → E (29)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a IPGP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While IPGP currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($76.47) and Max Pain ($76.22) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $163.61.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IPGP• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “IPGP Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your IPGP Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $72.59: 137.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $49.23
$6,782
$-3,218 (-32.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $63.12
$8,695
$-1,305 (-13.0%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $163.61
$22,539
+$12,539 (+125.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$6674%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$15469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$5658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring IPGP)

  • ✓Walkthrough of IPGP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
IPGP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -40.66%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $75.70H $75.70L $72.59C $72.59VOL 379.9K
RES: $75.21SUP: $68.08SMA50: $76.47SMA200: $101.2
$139.7$120.3$101.0$81.62$62.26RES $75.21SUP $68.08$72.592026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

IPGP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 IPGP Butterfly Map → + Track IPGP →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IPGP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IPGP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IPGP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IPGP)

Technology Rank #599 of 714 ⚔️ PENG vs IPGP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (IPGP vs. PENG, OSIS, ENPH, AMBA)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP) ranks #599 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #249 by equity capitalization ($3.09B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ENPH leads on earnings valuation at 19.9x trailing P/E, while PENG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.4% ROIC and 28.8% gross margin. PENG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with IPGP at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
IPGP ACTIVE
IPG Photonics Corporation
E 29/100 103.5x 38.0% 0.6% -4.11% $3.09B Benchmark Subject
PENG
Penguin Solutions Inc.
D+ 58/100 139.5x 28.8% 12.4% -11.67% $3.13B /peng-vs-ipgp →
OSIS
OSI Systems Inc.
D+ 53/100 21.9x 34.3% 11.4% -4.19% $3.14B /osis-vs-ipgp →
ENPH
Enphase Energy Inc.
D 44/100 19.9x 46.6% 10.5% -0.81% $3.39B /enph-vs-ipgp →
AMBA
Ambarella Inc.
D 49/100 — 59.2% -16.1% -2.26% $2.79B /amba-vs-ipgp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001111928

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP) reported GAAP revenue of $1.00B (+2.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $977.1M , and -22.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $31.1M, operating cash flow of $75.3M, and free cash flow of -$3.5M (-102.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, IPGP closed FY2025 with $2.42B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 9.07, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.00B $31.1M $75.3M -$3.5M $2.42B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $977.1M -$181.5M $247.9M $149.4M $2.29B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.29B $218.9M $296.0M $296.0M — —

3. IPGP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is IPGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, IPG Photonics Corporation (NASDAQ: IPGP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $72.59 (-4.11% 1D, market cap $3.09B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, IPGP ranks #599 in composite RQD confidence.

How does IPGP compare to PENG and OSIS in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), IPGP carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 103.5x, gross margin of 38.0%, and ROIC of 0.6%. By comparison, PENG (Penguin Solutions Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 139.5x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $3.13B) and OSIS (OSI Systems Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 21.9x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $3.14B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ENPH leads on earnings multiple (19.9x) while PENG leads on capital efficiency (12.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IPGP?

Per IPGP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001111928), IPG Photonics Corporation generated $1.00B in revenue (+2.7% YoY), $31.1M in net income, and -$3.5M in free cash flow against $2.42B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is IPGP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

IPGP last traded at $72.59 (-4.11% on volume of 379,851 shares), positioning the stock -5.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($76.47) and -28.26% below its 200-day simple moving average ($101.19). Across its 52-week range of $68.27 to $155.82, IPGP sits at the 4.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.1% ($66.71 to $78.47).

IPGP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is IPGP's 12-month stock price target?

IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $63.12 (-13% from $72.59), with a bull-case target of $163.61 and a bear-case floor of $49.23.

Is IPGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates IPGP E (Strong Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 29/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: IPGP RQD Cockpit IPGP 12M Forecast IPGP Earnings & Move IPGP Dividends & DRIP IPGP Insiders & 13F IPGP Whale Options IPGP Profit Sankey IPGP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 29/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

IPGP — IPG Photonics Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:23:56Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, IPGP scores 31 out of 100, earning an E grade and the verdict "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars break down as follows:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 6 / 20. The rating cites ROIC of 0.6% and an FCF yield of -0.11%. Returns on invested capital are minimal and free cash flow yield is negative, so the business is not currently generating meaningful cash relative to its valuation.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 6 / 20. The rating describes institutional accumulation and options positioning as a weak contributor, indicating limited supportive smart-money flow.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scores low, a negative signal for insider confidence.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 3 / 20. Beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity noted, and the pillar scores low, suggesting limited alignment with the current macro backdrop as the rating assesses it.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. This is the strongest pillar, citing an Altman Z-Score of 9.07, a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. Balance-sheet resilience is the primary offset to the weak cash and insider signals.

For a prospective investor, the upside case rests mainly on the balance sheet and on any recovery in operating profitability, while the valuation requires a substantial earnings recovery to be justified. The rating's combined reading is that current fundamentals, flow, and insider signals do not support the stock at present.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
75.7$3.22B103.596.335.20.730%1.0$68.27 - $155.820.6%

Business

IPG Photonics Corporation is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Technology sector and Semiconductors industry, per the company profile. The source data does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model. Gross margin is 38% per the market data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1003.8M$13.1M$31.1MN/A$-3.5M$403.8MN/A
FY 2024$977.1M$-208.3M$-181.5MN/A$149.4M$620.0MN/A
FY 2023$1287.4M$232.0M$218.9MN/A$296.0MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $1287.4M in FY 2023 to $977.1M in FY 2024 before recovering to $1003.8M in FY 2025. Operating margin is 1.3% and net margin is 3.1% per the market data, with ROIC at 0.6%. The Altman Z-Score of 9.07 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 are cited in the Roarable rating, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. FY 2025 free cash flow was negative at $-3.5M.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, the dominant item is a Yahoo Finance report that IPG Photonics is set to report earnings the following day, along with several market-wire pieces on analyst expectations, forecasts, and share price coverage. A Stock Titan item reports that a 10% owner sold 9,876 and 5,485 shares under a preset trading plan. All items are tagged as YELLOW light with MARKET WIRE impact. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What specific products and end markets drive revenue, and what explains the FY 2024 operating loss of $-208.3M?
  • Why is FCF negative in FY 2025 despite positive net income, and what working-capital or capex drivers are involved?
  • What are the EPS, total debt, and cash figures for periods where the source reports N/A or N/A-equivalent values?
  • What upcoming earnings figures and guidance does the pending earnings report contain?
  • What is the composition and timing of the 10% owner's share sales, and do any other insiders or institutions hold meaningful positions?

IPGP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to IPGP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

IPGP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $72.59?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON IPGP 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on IPGP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $66.62 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is IPGP (E • RQD 31/100) a Buy at $75.70?

Welcome to the IPGP (IPG Photonics Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 31/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Semiconductors. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (103.5x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $58.29 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $75.70

Pump the brakes on IPGP — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on IPGP, but look at what you are paying: 103.5x trailing P/E with 38.0% gross margins. Unless IPG Photonics Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $87.81 (+16.0%)
Spot @ $75.70

IPGP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on IPGP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Semiconductors and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $75.70 (52-wk range $68.27 - $155.82), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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