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Stock Ratings / Materials / IONR / options
SND (52) ABAT (29) PHOS (44) FEAM (38) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

ioneer Ltd (IONR) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$2.70 -3.91% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.68

ioneer Ltd (IONR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $216.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is IONR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, ioneer Ltd (NASDAQ: IONR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $2.70 (-3.91% 1D, market cap $216.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, IONR ranks #112 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does IONR compare to SND and ABAT in the Materials sector?
▼

Within the Materials sector (Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)), IONR carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SND (Smart Sand Inc.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 154.1x, ROIC -1.6%, cap $205.2M) and ABAT (American Battery Technology Company) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $201.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SND leads on earnings multiple (154.1x) while SND leads on capital efficiency (-1.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IONR?
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For ioneer Ltd (IONR), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #112 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.68 (-0.89%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510047
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.8% Base Target
$7 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE IONR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IONR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY IONR SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 0.2% FCF Margin ($6.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$2.89-2.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$2.81-2.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$2.73-1.1% Next Q
Current
47
Grade D$2.70-5.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a IONR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While IONR currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.98) and Max Pain ($2.84) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.86.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IONR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “IONR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±8.7%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (IONR)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for IONR.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring IONR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of IONR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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IONR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.38%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $2.82H $2.82L $2.70C $2.70VOL 23.9K
RES: $3.50SUP: $2.46SMA50: $2.98SMA200: $3.72
$4.96$4.30$3.64$2.98$2.33RES $3.50SUP $2.46$2.702026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

IONR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 IONR Butterfly Map → + Track IONR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IONR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IONR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IONR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IONR)

Materials Rank #112 of 270 ⚔️ SND vs IONR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (IONR vs. SND, ABAT, PHOS, FEAM)

Industry: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ioneer Ltd (IONR) ranks #112 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #207 by equity capitalization ($216.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SND leads on earnings valuation at 154.1x trailing P/E, while SND leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -1.6% ROIC and 11.5% gross margin. SND currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with IONR at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
IONR ACTIVE
ioneer Ltd
D 47/100 — — — -3.91% $216.0M Benchmark Subject
SND
Smart Sand Inc.
D+ 52/100 154.1x 11.5% -1.6% -4.54% $205.2M /snd-vs-ionr →
ABAT
American Battery Technology Company
E 29/100 — -30.0% -35.0% -6.01% $201.7M /abat-vs-ionr →
PHOS
First Phosphate Corp.
D 44/100 — — — -7.67% $233.0M /phos-vs-ionr →
FEAM
5E Advanced Materials Inc.
D- 38/100 — — -35.0% -4.72% $115.6M /feam-vs-ionr →

2. IONR Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

ioneer Ltd (IONR) operates in Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $216.0M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. IONR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is IONR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, ioneer Ltd (NASDAQ: IONR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $2.70 (-3.91% 1D, market cap $216.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, IONR ranks #112 in composite RQD confidence.

How does IONR compare to SND and ABAT in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)), IONR carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SND (Smart Sand Inc.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 154.1x, ROIC -1.6%, cap $205.2M) and ABAT (American Battery Technology Company) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $201.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SND leads on earnings multiple (154.1x) while SND leads on capital efficiency (-1.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IONR?

For ioneer Ltd (IONR), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #112 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is IONR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

IONR last traded at $2.70 (-3.91% on volume of 105,205 shares), positioning the stock -9.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.98) and -27.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.72). Across its 52-week range of $2.53 to $6.53, IONR sits at the 4.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.7% ($2.47 to $2.93).

Direct Sub-Reports: IONR RQD Cockpit IONR 12M Forecast IONR Earnings & Move IONR Dividends & DRIP IONR Insiders & 13F IONR Whale Options IONR Profit Sankey IONR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 47/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

IONR — ioneer Ltd: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

ioneer Ltd (IONR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 47/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.70 (-3.91% 1D, market capitalization $216.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

ioneer Ltd (IONR) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) industry (Materials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $216.0M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 0% (free cash flow yield of 0%). Within the Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 47/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.53 – $6.53 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore provides no upstream or downstream dependency map, no sector correlation data, and no identified bottlenecks.

  • Key Question #1: Can IONR sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) toward the $6.53 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is IONR's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

IONR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ioneer Ltd (IONR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to IONR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

IONR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.70?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON IONR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on IONR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.51 (+24.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The balance sheet pillar scores 13 of 20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 6 out of 9 and Debt/Equity of 0.5, offering a forensic floor relat

Don't sleep on IONR's setup in Materials. The balance sheet pillar scores 13 of 20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 6 out of 9 and Debt/Equity of 0.5, offering a forensic floor relative to the weak cash and flow readings.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (47/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 47/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $2.81 and keeping dry powder in case we test $2.61.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.14 (-23.8%)
Spot @ $2.81

Institutional flow scores only 5 of 20 and ROIC and FCF yield are both 0%, leaving no cash generation or sustained accumulation to supp

Fading this rally in IONR at $2.81. Institutional flow scores only 5 of 20 and ROIC and FCF yield are both 0%, leaving no cash generation or sustained accumulation to support the valuation.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $2.81 (52-wk range $2.53–$6.53), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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