Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$4.06 -3.10% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.03

Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $313.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HLP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HLP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: HLP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $4.06 (-3.10% 1D, market cap $313.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, HLP ranks #108 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HLP compare to SES and CUB in the Industrials sector?
▼

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), HLP carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 32.5%, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, SES (SES AI Corporation (Class A)) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $322.5M) and CUB (Lionheart Holdings (Class A)) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E 38.8x, ROIC -4.0%, cap $347.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CUB leads on earnings multiple (38.8x) while HLP leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLP?
▼

Per HLP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001855557), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) generated $19.6M in revenue (+39.0% YoY), $1.9M in net income, and $660.8K in free cash flow against $72.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.03 (-0.75%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 3.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B+
Cash (7)Whales (14)SEC (18)Macro (14)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target
$5 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE HLP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HLP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HLP SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 13.76 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 12.4% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$2.64+12.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$2.96+18.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$3.50+16% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$4.06+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HLP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, HLP faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 30.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($2.34) or 200D SMA ($1.28) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.15) toward Bear Floor ($3.24).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HLP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HLP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.51 Expected Swing
$3.55 (-12.5%)Spot $4.06$4.57 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

HLP Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 63/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 39%

Model Bullish Setup (63/100)Model Risk Weight (37/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$19.6M$1.9M$660.8K32.5%
FY 20242024-12-31$14.1M-$1.9M-$446.5K32%
FY 20232023-12-31$16.0M$864.7K$884.9K32.5%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating HLP & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on HLP
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
HLP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +389.16%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-02O $4.19H $4.19L $4.06C $4.06VOL 232.6K
RES: $3.48SUP: $1.72SMA50: $2.34SMA200: $1.28
$4.68$3.51$2.33$1.15$-0.03RES $3.48SUP $1.72$4.062026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HLP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +39.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HLP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HLP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HLP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HLP)

Industrials Rank #108 of 485 ⚔️ SES vs HLP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (HLP vs. SES, CUB, ELVA, AZ)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) ranks #108 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #322 by equity capitalization ($313.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CUB leads on earnings valuation at 38.8x trailing P/E, while HLP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 32.5% gross margin. HLP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HLP ACTIVE
Hongli Group Inc. (Class A)
C 63/100 — 32.5% 3.4% -3.10% $313.2M Benchmark Subject
SES
SES AI Corporation (Class A)
E 30/100 — 53.8% -35.0% -12.79% $322.5M /ses-vs-hlp →
CUB
Lionheart Holdings (Class A)
D- 42/100 38.8x — -4.0% 0.00% $347.5M /cub-vs-hlp →
ELVA
Electrovaya Inc.
D 46/100 — — — -6.22% $281.5M /elva-vs-hlp →
AZ
A2Z Cust2Mate Solutions Corp.
D+ 53/100 — — — -1.29% $278.6M /az-vs-hlp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001855557

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) reported GAAP revenue of $19.6M (+39.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $14.1M , and +22.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.9M, operating cash flow of $878.3K, and free cash flow of $660.8K (+248.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, HLP closed FY2025 with $72.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 13.76, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $19.6M $1.9M $878.3K $660.8K $72.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $14.1M -$1.9M -$414.0K -$446.5K $65.0M $3.3M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $16.0M $864.7K $884.9K $884.9K — —

3. HLP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HLP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: HLP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $4.06 (-3.10% 1D, market cap $313.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, HLP ranks #108 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HLP compare to SES and CUB in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), HLP carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 32.5%, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, SES (SES AI Corporation (Class A)) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $322.5M) and CUB (Lionheart Holdings (Class A)) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E 38.8x, ROIC -4.0%, cap $347.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CUB leads on earnings multiple (38.8x) while HLP leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLP?

Per HLP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001855557), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) generated $19.6M in revenue (+39.0% YoY), $1.9M in net income, and $660.8K in free cash flow against $72.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HLP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HLP last traded at $4.06 (-3.10% on volume of 562,253 shares), positioning the stock +73.50% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.34) and +217.19% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.28). Across its 52-week range of $0.34 to $4.40, HLP sits at the 91.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 84.9 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.55 to $4.57).

HLP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is HLP's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is HLP stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for HLP, spanning a range between $3.55 and $4.57.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

HLP — Hongli Group Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:38:37Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, HLP scores 63 out of 100, graded C, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 7 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 3.4% and an FCF yield of 0.21%. These are the weakest cash-generation signals in the rating. A prospective investor should note that the business earns a low return on invested capital and that the free cash flow yield against the current market value is very thin, meaning the stock currently offers little cash return relative to its price.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 14 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score is moderate. Source data provides no holder detail, so the basis for this score cannot be independently checked against named holders.
  • Insider Conviction: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score is below midpoint, indicating limited or mixed insider conviction signals.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 14 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and the score reflects sector sensitivity. The stock moves in line with the broad market on this measure, offering neither a defensive nor an aggressive market-sensitivity profile.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is the strongest pillar, citing an Altman Z-Score of 13.76, a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. These balance-sheet readings are the main support for the rating.

Taken together, the rating points to a company with a sound balance sheet but weak returns and cash generation. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on the forensic strength and the improvement visible in FY 2025 results. The valuation tradeoff is that low ROIC and a near-zero FCF yield leave little margin of safety if the operating recovery stalls. The verdict of "Hold" reflects that balance: neither a clear buy nor a clear avoid on the current data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$19.6M$2.4M$1.9MN/A$0.7M$1.8MN/A
FY 2024$14.1M$-1.6M$-1.9MN/A$-0.4M$0.9M$3.3M
FY 2023$16.0M$1.0M$0.9MN/A$0.9MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, the company moved from an operating loss in FY 2024 to operating income of $2.4M in FY 2025, with net income of $1.9M. Per the market data, gross margin is 32.5%, operating margin 12.4%, and net margin 9.9%. ROIC is 3.4%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 13.76 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7 out of 9, with Debt/Equity of 0.5. Reported debt for FY 2025 is not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, coverage is largely aggregator and market-wire content. One item is tagged as a catalyst: a ChartMill report stating that HLP passes a Minervini Trend Template and high-growth momentum screen. Another item reports a change of chairman, with the outgoing chairman remaining CEO. A kalkine.ca item reports the stock down 5.67% pre-market. Other items are general market-wire summaries. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded for this ticker.

Open Questions

  • What are FY 2025 EPS, total debt, and cash figures, given that several financial fields are marked N/A or unavailable?
  • What drove the swing from FY 2024 operating loss to FY 2025 operating income, and is it repeatable?
  • Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what is the direction of recent position changes?
  • What products, customers, and supply-chain relationships underlie the reported revenue?
  • What explains the 52-week range of $0.34 to $4.4, and what is the source of the recent pre-market decline?

HLP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HLP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HLP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.06?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HLP 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HLP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $4.53 (+8.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is HLP (C • RQD 63/100) a Buy at $4.19?

Welcome to the HLP (Hongli Group Inc. (Class A)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 63/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Industrial Machinery/Components. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.48 (-16.9%)
Spot @ $4.19

Pump the brakes on HLP — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on HLP, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 32.5% gross margins. Unless Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.24 (+25.1%)
Spot @ $4.19

HLP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on HLP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Industrial Machinery/Components and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $4.19 (52-wk range $0.34 - $4.40), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $755.72 -0.38% QQQ $690.49 -1.44% DIA $517.13 -0.37% IWM $279.33 +0.96% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.36 -0.94% GLD $355.78 -1.34%