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Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / GO / forecast
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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$13.23 +2.32% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.26

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.28B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: GO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $13.23 (+2.32% 1D, market cap $1.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, GO ranks #54 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GO compare to YSWY and IMKTA in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), GO carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.3%, and ROIC of -12.6%. By comparison, YSWY (Yesway Inc. (Class A)) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.57B) and IMKTA (Ingles Markets Incorporated (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 18.9x, ROIC 4.4%, cap $1.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NGVC leads on earnings multiple (14.1x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GO?
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Per GO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001771515), Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. generated $4.69B in revenue (+7.3% YoY), -$224.9M in net income, and $23.8M in free cash flow against $3.09B in total assets and $477.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.26 (+0.23%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (10)Whales (16)SEC (10)Macro (13)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target
$16 Bull$13 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE GO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GO SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 86% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 57 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$12.34+5.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$13.02-1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$12.89+2.6% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$13.23-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, GO faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.05) or 200D SMA ($9.59) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.17) toward Bear Floor ($10.27).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your GO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $13.23: 755.9 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $10.27
$7,763
$-2,237 (-22.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $13.17
$9,955
$-45 (-0.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $15.54
$11,746
+$1,746 (+17.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of GO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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GO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +66.21%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $12.88H $13.23L $12.88C $13.23VOL 2.62M
RES: $14.31SUP: $11.97SMA50: $12.05SMA200: $9.59
$14.46$12.48$10.49$8.51$6.52RES $14.31SUP $11.97$13.232026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GO Butterfly Map → + Track GO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GO)

Consumer Staples Rank #54 of 147 ⚔️ YSWY vs GO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (GO vs. YSWY, IMKTA, WMK, NGVC)

Industry: Food Chains (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) ranks #54 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #68 by equity capitalization ($1.28B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NGVC leads on earnings valuation at 14.1x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. NGVC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with GO at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GO ACTIVE
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
D+ 57/100 — 30.3% -12.6% +2.32% $1.28B Benchmark Subject
YSWY
Yesway Inc. (Class A)
C- 61/100 — — — +2.26% $1.57B /yswy-vs-go →
IMKTA
Ingles Markets Incorporated (Class A)
D+ 53/100 18.9x 23.9% 4.4% +2.08% $1.60B /imkta-vs-go →
WMK
Weis Markets Inc.
C- 59/100 19.8x 25.0% 7.3% +1.83% $1.84B /wmk-vs-go →
NGVC
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.
C 63/100 14.1x 29.9% 24.9% +2.37% $661.2M /ngvc-vs-go →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0001771515 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) reported GAAP revenue of $4.69B (+7.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.37B , and +18.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$224.9M, operating cash flow of $222.1M, and free cash flow of $23.8M (+131.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, GO closed FY2025 with $3.09B in total assets against $477.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.77, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-03 $4.69B -$224.9M $222.1M $23.8M $3.09B $477.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-12-28 $4.37B $39.5M $112.0M -$74.6M $3.17B $462.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-12-30 $3.97B $79.4M $303.4M $303.4M — —

3. GO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: GO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $13.23 (+2.32% 1D, market cap $1.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, GO ranks #54 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GO compare to YSWY and IMKTA in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), GO carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.3%, and ROIC of -12.6%. By comparison, YSWY (Yesway Inc. (Class A)) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.57B) and IMKTA (Ingles Markets Incorporated (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 18.9x, ROIC 4.4%, cap $1.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NGVC leads on earnings multiple (14.1x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GO?

Per GO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001771515), Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. generated $4.69B in revenue (+7.3% YoY), -$224.9M in net income, and $23.8M in free cash flow against $3.09B in total assets and $477.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GO last traded at $13.23 (+2.32% on volume of 1,823,495 shares), positioning the stock +9.79% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.05) and +37.96% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.59). Across its 52-week range of $5.66 to $14.49, GO sits at the 85.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($12.21 to $14.25).

Direct Sub-Reports: GO RQD Cockpit GO 12M Forecast GO Earnings & Move GO Dividends & DRIP GO Insiders & 13F GO Whale Options GO Profit Sankey GO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GO — Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-01-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $13.23 (+2.32% 1D, market capitalization $1.28B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -12.6%, gross margin of 30.3%, operating margin of -4.7%, and free cash flow yield of 1.86%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.77, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.49x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Staples sector and the Food Chains industry,. The profile states a market capitalization of $1.3B. Operationally, the financial data shows FY 2025 revenue of $4.69B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-03), Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) reported $4.69B in annual revenue (up from $4.37B in FY2024, +7.3% YoY) and -$224.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.97B revenue, $79.4M net income) through FY2025, GO scaled operating cash flow to $222.1M and free cash flow to $23.8M, backed by $3.09B in total assets against $477.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 1.86% and institutional whale pillar of 16/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.66 – $14.49 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -4.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish upstream supplier dependencies, downstream customer exposure, or sector correlation pathways for GO. A prospective investor should note that the sector classification (Consumer Staples, Food Chains) is the only structural context provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can GO sustain or expand its -4.7% operating margin and -12.6% ROIC against Food Chains peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.69B and free cash flow of $23.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $477.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is GO's equity valuation to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

GO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $13.23?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $15.26 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional flow scores 16/20 in the RQD rating and the stock trades 2.47% higher on the day.

Here is why I am bullish on GO here at $12.93: Institutional flow scores 16/20 in the RQD rating and the stock trades 2.47% higher on the day.. Compare GO's -4.7% operating margin and -12.6% ROIC against the rest of Food Chains. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $12.28 are getting bought.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — GO's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.47 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $12.93

ROIC of -12.6% and operating margin of -4.7% show the business is not currently earning returns on its capital.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short GO above $12.93. ROIC of -12.6% and operating margin of -4.7% show the business is not currently earning returns on its capital.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20) and FCF yield (1.86%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $14.49.

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