How profitable is Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), GO converted $4.7B of revenue into a 30.3% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $23.8M in free cash flow (0.5% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / GO / financials

YSWY (61) IMKTA (53) WMK (59) NGVC (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$13.23 +2.32% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.26

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.28B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: GO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $13.23 (+2.32% 1D, market cap $1.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, GO ranks #53 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GO compare to YSWY and IMKTA in the Consumer Staples sector?

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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), GO carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.3%, and ROIC of -12.6%. By comparison, YSWY (Yesway Inc. (Class A)) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.57B) and IMKTA (Ingles Markets Incorporated (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 18.9x, ROIC 4.4%, cap $1.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NGVC leads on earnings multiple (14.1x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GO?

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Per GO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001771515), Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. generated $4.69B in revenue (+7.3% YoY), -$224.9M in net income, and $23.8M in free cash flow against $3.09B in total assets and $477.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.26 (+0.23%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GO SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 86% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 57 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$12.34+5.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$13.02-1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$12.89+2.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$13.23-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, GO faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.05) or 200D SMA ($9.59) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.17) toward Bear Floor ($10.27).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How GO Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$23.8M (0.5% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $3.97B

FY24

Rev $4.37B

FY25

Rev $4.69B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.69B	30.3%	-4.7%	-$224.9M	$23.8M	-12.6%
FY 2024	$4.37B	30.2%	1.8%	$39.5M	-$74.6M	3.9%
FY 2023	$3.97B	30.3%	3.2%	$79.4M	$303.4M	-12.6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GO)

✓Walkthrough of GO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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GO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +66.21%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $12.88H $13.23L $12.88C $13.23VOL 2.62M

RES: $14.31SUP: $11.97SMA50: $12.05SMA200: $9.59

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GO Butterfly Map → + Track GO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GO)

Consumer Staples Rank #53 of 146 ⚔️ YSWY vs GO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (GO vs. YSWY, IMKTA, WMK, NGVC)

Industry: Food Chains (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) ranks #53 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #67 by equity capitalization ($1.28B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NGVC leads on earnings valuation at 14.1x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. NGVC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with GO at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GO ACTIVE Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.	D+	57/100	—	30.3%	-12.6%	+2.32%	$1.28B	Benchmark Subject
YSWY Yesway Inc. (Class A)	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+2.26%	$1.57B	/yswy-vs-go →
IMKTA Ingles Markets Incorporated (Class A)	D+	53/100	18.9x	23.9%	4.4%	+2.08%	$1.60B	/imkta-vs-go →
WMK Weis Markets Inc.	C-	59/100	19.8x	25.0%	7.3%	+1.83%	$1.84B	/wmk-vs-go →
NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.	C	63/100	14.1x	29.9%	24.9%	+2.37%	$661.2M	/ngvc-vs-go →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0001771515

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) reported GAAP revenue of $4.69B (+7.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.37B , and +18.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$224.9M, operating cash flow of $222.1M, and free cash flow of $23.8M (+131.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, GO closed FY2025 with $3.09B in total assets against $477.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.77, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-03	$4.69B	-$224.9M	$222.1M	$23.8M	$3.09B	$477.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$4.37B	$39.5M	$112.0M	-$74.6M	$3.17B	$462.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$3.97B	$79.4M	$303.4M	$303.4M	—	—

3. GO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does GO compare to YSWY and IMKTA in the Consumer Staples sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GO?

Where is GO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GO last traded at $13.23 (+2.32% on volume of 1,823,495 shares), positioning the stock +9.79% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.05) and +37.96% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.59). Across its 52-week range of $5.66 to $14.49, GO sits at the 85.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($12.21 to $14.25).

Direct Sub-Reports: GO RQD Cockpit GO 12M Forecast GO Earnings & Move GO Dividends & DRIP GO Insiders & 13F GO Whale Options GO Profit Sankey GO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

GO — Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:29:55Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

GO scores 57 out of 100, a D+ grade, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 (ROIC of -12.6% and FCF yield of 1.86%), Whale 13F Flow at 16/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 8/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 13/20 (beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20 (Altman Z of 1.77, Piotroski F of 7/9, Debt/Equity of 0.49). Taken together, the weakest pillars are the cash engine and insider conviction, while institutional flow is the relative strength. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests mainly on institutional positioning and a balance sheet that the forensic metrics describe as moderately sound, while the downside case rests on negative ROIC, a low FCF yield, and thin insider support. The rating is a structured summary of the source data and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Staples sector and the Food Chains industry,. The profile states a market capitalization of $1.3B. Operationally, the financial data shows FY 2025 revenue of $4.69B.

Revenue grew from $3.97B in FY 2023 to $4.69B in FY 2025, while operating income moved from $125.8M to -$221.7M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 30.3%, operating margin is -4.7%, and net margin is -4.8%, with ROIC at -12.6%. The forensic metrics are an Altman Z-Score of 1.77, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.49.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case: Institutional flow scores 16/20 in the RQD rating and the stock trades 2.47% higher on the day. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 (ROIC -12.6%, FCF yield 1.86%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $5.66 – $14.49 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case: ROIC of -12.6% and operating margin of -4.7% show the business is not currently earning returns on its capital. Investors must weigh current valuation against -4.7% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish upstream supplier dependencies, downstream customer exposure, or sector correlation pathways for GO. A prospective investor should note that the sector classification (Consumer Staples, Food Chains) is the only structural context provided.

Key Question #1: What is the composition of the store and revenue base behind the FY 2025 revenue of $4.69B, and what drove the swing to operating loss?
Key Question #2: What is the FY 2025 cash and debt position in detail, given that FY 2023 cash and debt are reported as N/A?
Key Question #3: What does the Q1 earnings report referenced in the news feed contain, and does it bear on the reported weak store sales?

GO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

Grocery Outlet (GO) Stock Eyes Q1 Earnings After Slower Profit Trend

Yahoo Finance report covering Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Barchart.com • 23h ago

GO Price History for Grocery Outlet Holding Corp Stock

Barchart.com report covering Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Moomoo • 1d ago

Grocery Outlet (GO) Stock Forecast & Analyst Ratings

Moomoo report covering Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Grocery Outlet Holding (GO) Rebounds, Is The Valuation Gap Still Too Wide?

Yahoo Finance report covering Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 1d ago

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $11.07, Implies 17% Downside

TradingView report covering Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Simply Wall Street • 1d ago

Learn Why The Bull Case For Grocery Outlet Stock Could Change Following Weak Store Sales

Simply Wall Street report covering Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:GO) Stock Has Average Target Price of $10.50

MarketBeat report covering Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH StockStory • 1d ago

3 Russell 2000 Stocks with Warning Signs

StockStory report covering Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $13.23?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

QU QuantViper Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $15.26 (+18.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional flow scores 16/20 in the RQD rating and the stock trades 2.47% higher on the day.

Here is why I am bullish on GO here at $12.93: Institutional flow scores 16/20 in the RQD rating and the stock trades 2.47% higher on the day.. Compare GO's -4.7% operating margin and -12.6% ROIC against the rest of Food Chains. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $12.28 are getting bought.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — GO's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.47 (-19.0%)

Spot @ $12.93

ROIC of -12.6% and operating margin of -4.7% show the business is not currently earning returns on its capital.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short GO above $12.93. ROIC of -12.6% and operating margin of -4.7% show the business is not currently earning returns on its capital.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20) and FCF yield (1.86%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $14.49.