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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ETSY / options
HQY (78) ANDG (62) ZG (65) Z (50) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Etsy Inc. (ETSY) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$88.96 -2.87% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $88.71

Etsy Inc. (ETSY) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (72% profit margin, 33% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate) →
ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $7.90B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ETSY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ETSY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, Etsy Inc. (NYSE: ETSY) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $88.96 (-2.87% 1D, market cap $7.90B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 19/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ETSY ranks #79 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ETSY compare to HQY and ANDG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), ETSY carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 48.4x, gross margin of 71.6%, and ROIC of 33.3%. By comparison, HQY (HealthEquity Inc.) holds a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 39.0x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $8.38B) and ANDG (Andersen Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.9%, cap $7.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HQY leads on earnings multiple (39.0x) while ETSY leads on capital efficiency (33.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ETSY?
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Per ETSY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001370637), Etsy Inc. generated $2.88B in revenue (+2.7% YoY), $163.0M in net income, and $678.0M in free cash flow against $2.83B in total assets and $1.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (72% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 48x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $88.71 (-0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 23.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510074
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk C-
Cash (16)Whales (19)SEC (10)Macro (14)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target
$113 Bull$95 Base$73 Bear
📬 FREE ETSY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ETSY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ETSY SCORES 74/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+19/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 23.5% FCF Margin ($678.0M FCF) & 71.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
66
Grade B-$79.28+10.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
69
Grade B-$87.41+0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
71
Grade B$87.66+1.5% Next Q
Current
74
Grade B$88.96+7.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (66) → B (74)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ETSY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, ETSY faces multiple-compression risk if 48.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 48x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($79.04) or 200D SMA ($68.53) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($95.37) toward Bear Floor ($72.95).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ETSY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ETSY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 74%NO 26%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±9%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ETSY)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ETSY.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ETSY & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ETSY
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
ETSY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +38.91%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $92.35H $92.35L $88.96C $88.96VOL 4.22M
RES: $94.89SUP: $59.62SMA50: $79.04SMA200: $68.53
$97.19$86.02$74.84$63.67$52.50RES $94.89SUP $59.62$88.962026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ETSY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ETSY Butterfly Map → + Track ETSY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
35.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ETSY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ETSY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ETSY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ETSY)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #79 of 1011 ⚔️ HQY vs ETSY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ETSY vs. HQY, ANDG, ZG, Z)

Industry: Business Services (90 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Etsy Inc. (ETSY) ranks #79 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #203 by equity capitalization ($7.90B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HQY leads on earnings valuation at 39.0x trailing P/E, while ETSY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.3% ROIC and 71.6% gross margin. HQY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with ETSY at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ETSY ACTIVE
Etsy Inc.
B 74/100 48.4x 71.6% 33.3% -2.87% $7.90B Benchmark Subject
HQY
HealthEquity Inc.
B+ 78/100 39.0x 69.5% 9.3% +1.10% $8.38B /hqy-vs-etsy →
ANDG
Andersen Group Inc. (Class A)
C 62/100 — — -28.9% +1.05% $7.39B /andg-vs-etsy →
ZG
Zillow Group Inc. (Class A)
C 65/100 — 74.1% -0.7% -0.65% $7.22B /zg-vs-etsy →
Z
Zillow Group Inc.
D 50/100 — 74.1% -0.6% -0.10% $6.97B /z-vs-etsy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001370637

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Etsy Inc. (ETSY) reported GAAP revenue of $2.88B (+2.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.81B , and +4.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $163.0M, operating cash flow of $693.4M, and free cash flow of $678.0M (-8.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ETSY closed FY2025 with $2.83B in total assets against $1.77B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.60, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.88B $163.0M $693.4M $678.0M $2.83B $1.77B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.81B $303.0M $752.5M $738.3M $2.42B $1.43B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.75B $308.0M $705.5M $581.8M $4.34B $1.02B

3. ETSY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ETSY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Etsy Inc. (NYSE: ETSY) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $88.96 (-2.87% 1D, market cap $7.90B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 19/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ETSY ranks #79 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ETSY compare to HQY and ANDG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), ETSY carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 48.4x, gross margin of 71.6%, and ROIC of 33.3%. By comparison, HQY (HealthEquity Inc.) holds a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 39.0x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $8.38B) and ANDG (Andersen Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.9%, cap $7.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HQY leads on earnings multiple (39.0x) while ETSY leads on capital efficiency (33.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ETSY?

Per ETSY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001370637), Etsy Inc. generated $2.88B in revenue (+2.7% YoY), $163.0M in net income, and $678.0M in free cash flow against $2.83B in total assets and $1.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (72% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 48x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ETSY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ETSY last traded at $88.96 (-2.87% on volume of 3,428,733 shares), positioning the stock +12.55% above its 50-day simple moving average ($79.04) and +29.81% above its 200-day simple moving average ($68.53). Across its 52-week range of $44.00 to $94.49, ETSY sits at the 89.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($80.95 to $96.97).

ETSY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ETSY's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ETSY.

Direct Sub-Reports: ETSY RQD Cockpit ETSY 12M Forecast ETSY Earnings & Move ETSY Dividends & DRIP ETSY Insiders & 13F ETSY Whale Options ETSY Profit Sankey ETSY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 74/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ETSY — Etsy Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:17:55Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ETSY scores 74 out of 100 (grade B, verdict "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward"). The five pillars break down as follows:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of 33.3% and an FCF yield of 8.59%. These are the strongest signals in the cash-generation picture and suggest capital is being deployed efficiently relative to what the business returns, though the valuation multiples in the market data (P/E 48.4 TTM) mean an investor is paying a high price for each dollar of earnings.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 19 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this is the highest pillar, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning. The source data does not itemize the holders behind this score, so the score is the only evidence available here.
  • Insider Conviction: 15 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The underlying trades are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 14 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects a beta of 1.11 and sector sensitivity. For a prospective investor, a beta above 1.0 implies the stock has historically moved somewhat more than the broad market, which means amplified drawdowns in risk-off regimes alongside amplified gains in risk-on regimes.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 10 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this is the weakest pillar, reflecting Altman Z of 1.6, Piotroski F of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85. The Altman Z reading is the most important caution here; the rating treats balance-sheet quality as the main limiter on the overall score.

Taken together, the rating points to strong cash returns and institutional/positioning support, offset by balance-sheet and valuation tradeoffs. Upside drivers implied by the pillars are the cash-engine efficiency and the flow signals; the principal valuation tradeoff is the premium multiple relative to trailing earnings; the balance-sheet pillar signals sensitivity to any deterioration in financing conditions. This is an educational summary of the rating, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
91.59$7.9B48.44529.31.890%1.11$44 - $94.4933.3%

Business

Etsy Inc. (ETSY) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Business Services industry, per the company profile. Beyond the sector and industry classification, the source data does not describe what Etsy sells, to whom, or how it earns revenue. Gross margin of 71.6%, operating margin of 9.2%, and net margin of 5.7% are reported in the market data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, six items are listed, all tied to ETSY:

  • Yahoo! Finance Canada report on market action and institutional positioning (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • Motley Fool explainer on buying ETSY in 2026 (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • Trefis report on an 8-day winning streak to a 26% gain (GREEN, CATALYST).
  • Investor's Business Daily report that the stock jumped back above entry after strong Q3 results (GREEN, CATALYST).
  • Investing.com report that Jefferies raised its price target to $100 on momentum (GREEN, CATALYST).
  • Yahoo Finance report describing the stock as looking cheap after a 65% five-year slide (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).

Risk watch items are not separately itemized in the source data. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply chain links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as "NONE" with no butterfly links. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Analyst data is listed as NONE in the source data. Consensus rating and price targets are not available in source data.

Holders data is listed as NONE in the source data. SEC Form 4 insider, 13F institutional, and Congressional trade detail are not available in source data.

Open Questions

  • What specific products and services does Etsy sell, and what is its revenue mix by segment?
  • What were the reported EPS figures for FY 2023 through FY 2025, and why are they listed as N/A?
  • What drove the decline in net income from $308.0M to $163.0M while revenue grew, and what does the operating-to-net income gap reflect?
  • Which institutional holders and insiders underlie the Whale and Insider pillar scores, and what is the size and direction of their positions?
  • How does the rising debt level (from $1016.2M to $1766.4M) relate to the Altman Z-Score of 1.6 and the Debt/Equity ratio of 0.85?

ETSY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Etsy Inc. (ETSY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ETSY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ETSY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $88.96?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ETSY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ETSY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $108.08 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ETSY (B • RQD 74/100) a Buy at $91.59?

Welcome to the ETSY (Etsy Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 74/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Business Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (33.3% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (48.4x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $69.61 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $91.59

Pump the brakes on ETSY — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ETSY, but look at what you are paying: 48.4x trailing P/E with 71.6% gross margins. Unless Etsy Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $111.74 (+22.0%)
Spot @ $91.59

ETSY cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ETSY, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Business Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $91.59 (52-wk range $44.00 - $94.49), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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