USAR (39) AUGO (59) NEXA (49) BVN (45) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$29.05 -6.65% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.65

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.25B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ERO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ERO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Ero Copper Corp. (NYSE: ERO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $29.05 (-6.65% 1D, market cap $3.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ERO ranks #95 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ERO compare to USAR and AUGO in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), ERO carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, USAR (USA Rare Earth Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.9%, cap $3.95B) and AUGO (Aura Minerals Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $6.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUGO leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while AUGO leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ERO?

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For Ero Copper Corp. (ERO), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #95 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.65 (-1.39%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ERO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ERO SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 2.3% FCF Margin ($90.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$37.53-8.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$34.43-9.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$31.21-6.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$29.05-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ERO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ERO currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($35.31) and Max Pain ($30.50) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $42.87.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ERO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ERO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

42.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE46% OF RANGE

L: $19$29.05H: $41

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ERO

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

14.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (45)

16/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ERO

✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ERO)

✓Walkthrough of ERO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ERO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.77%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $32.19H $32.19L $29.05C $29.05VOL 992.1K

RES: $37.71SUP: $16.10SMA50: $35.31SMA200: $30.64

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ERO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ERO Butterfly Map → + Track ERO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ERO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ERO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ERO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ERO)

Materials Rank #95 of 270 ⚔️ USAR vs ERO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (ERO vs. USAR, AUGO, NEXA, BVN)

Industry: Metal Mining (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) ranks #95 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #92 by equity capitalization ($3.25B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AUGO leads on earnings valuation at 32.8x trailing P/E, while AUGO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. AUGO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with ERO at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ERO ACTIVE Ero Copper Corp.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-6.65%	$3.25B	Benchmark Subject
USAR USA Rare Earth Inc.	D-	39/100	—	11.9%	-14.9%	-8.55%	$3.95B	/usar-vs-ero →
AUGO Aura Minerals Inc.	C-	59/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-15.43%	$6.56B	/augo-vs-ero →
NEXA Nexa Resources S.A.	D	49/100	—	—	—	-7.67%	$1.59B	/nexa-vs-ero →
BVN Buenaventura Mining Company Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	—	-4.24%	$7.01B	/bvn-vs-ero →

2. ERO Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) operates in Metal Mining (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $3.25B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. ERO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ERO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ERO compare to USAR and AUGO in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ERO?

Where is ERO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ERO last traded at $29.05 (-6.65% on volume of 2,360,615 shares), positioning the stock -17.73% below its 50-day simple moving average ($35.31) and -5.19% below its 200-day simple moving average ($30.64). Across its 52-week range of $19.09 to $40.83, ERO sits at the 45.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.2% ($26.38 to $31.72).

ERO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ERO stock right now?

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 52/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ERO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ERO's 12-month base price target is $28.27 (range $22.05 to $42.87), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ERO RQD Cockpit ERO 12M Forecast ERO Earnings & Move ERO Dividends & DRIP ERO Insiders & 13F ERO Whale Options ERO Profit Sankey ERO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 52/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ERO — Ero Copper Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T14:11:57Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ERO scores 52 out of 100, a letter grade of D+, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 12 / 20. The rating notes ROIC of 0% and FCF yield of 0%. For a prospective investor, this pillar indicates the business is not currently generating a measurable return on invested capital or free cash flow per the source data.
Whale 13F Flow: 7 / 20. The pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. It is the lowest-scoring pillar, suggesting limited institutional conviction in the source data.
Insider Conviction: 9 / 20. The pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The low score indicates weak insider-side signaling in the source data.
Macro Regime Fit: 11 / 20. The rating cites Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. The stock is assessed as moving in line with the broad market, without a defensive or low-volatility profile.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. The rating cites Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. This is the highest-scoring pillar and points to a relatively stronger balance sheet than the cash-generation metrics.

Taken together, the rating frames ERO as a stock with a moderately sound balance sheet but weak cash-generation signals, limited institutional accumulation, and minimal insider conviction. Upside drivers in the source data are limited to the news-flow items (price-target raise and breakout commentary), which are third-party and not confirmed by the fundamental pillars. Valuation tradeoffs cannot be fully assessed because P/E, Forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS are not available in source data. The rating's verdict suggests caution, with the bear case weighted more heavily than the bull case.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, six items are listed, each related to ERO:

A Yahoo Finance report, classified as a GREEN light and CATALYST impact, covering a stock that "Looks Like A Bargain On Its 134% Run."
A TradingView report, GREEN and CATALYST, covering a 12-month price target raised to $40.14, which implies 17% upside.
A ChartMill report, GREEN and CATALYST, describing a "breakout setup" combined with high growth momentum.
A Motley Fool report, GREEN and CATALYST, covering a 2027 outlook with leverage projected to decline from 2.6x to 0.8x and a 24-year growth project.
A MarketBeat report, YELLOW and MARKET WIRE, covering researcher opinions.
A Simply Wall St report, YELLOW and MARKET WIRE, covering a stock forecast and analyst predictions.

Risk watch items: the news set itself does not identify specific risks. The 52-week range of $19.09 to $40.83 and the price of 31.12 with a change of -3.32% are noted in market data. The Butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and 2nd-order bottlenecks are not available in source data. The only sector context provided is Materials / Metal Mining, and the market data shows a beta of 1.0.

Open Questions

What are the reported revenue, operating income, net income, EPS, free cash flow, cash, and debt across recent periods, given that the financials section is empty?
What are the trailing and forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, which would allow valuation to be assessed against the 52-week range?
What is the analyst consensus rating and current price target distribution, given the analyst data section is empty?
Which institutional holders and insiders are reported in the holders section, and what are their recent 13F, Form 4, or Congressional trades?
Which specific operations, mines, or commodities drive the business, and what customer or supply-chain relationships underlie it?

ERO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ERO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 8h ago

Ero Copper (TSX:ERO) Stock Looks Like A Bargain On Its 134% Run

Yahoo Finance report covering Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 11h ago

Ero Copper Corp. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $40.14, Implies 17% Upside

TradingView report covering Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST ChartMill • 14h ago

ERO Copper (NYSE:ERO) Combines High Growth Momentum With a Breakout Setup

ChartMill report covering Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST The Motley Fool • 17h ago

Ero Copper's 2027 Outlook: Leverage Down From 2.6x to 0.8x With a 24-Year Growth Project Waiting in the Wings

The Motley Fool report covering Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 20h ago

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) - What Are Researchers Thinking About This Stock?

MarketBeat report covering Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 23h ago

Ero Copper (NYSE:ERO) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE kalkine.ca • 1d ago

Ero Copper Corp. (TSX:ERO) in Focus: What Could Move the Canadian Mining Stock Next?

kalkine.ca report covering Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Kalkine Media • 1d ago

Why Did Ero Copper (NYSE:ERO) Just Receive A Fresh Downgrade?

Kalkine Media report covering Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ERO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $29.05?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ERO 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $33.61 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ERO (D+ • RQD 52/100) a Buy at $31.12?

Welcome to the ERO (Ero Copper Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 52/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Metal Mining. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $23.96 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $31.12

Pump the brakes on ERO — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ERO, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Ero Copper Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $37.66 (+21.0%)

Spot @ $31.12

ERO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ERO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Metal Mining and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $31.12 (52-wk range $19.09 - $40.83), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.