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Stock Ratings / Technology / ENPH / earnings
PENG (62) OSIS (55) IPGP (31) AXTI (38) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±11.5% Move

$25.65 -0.81% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.56

Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.42B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ENPH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ENPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, Enphase Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: ENPH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $25.65 (-0.81% 1D, market cap $3.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, ENPH ranks #455 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ENPH compare to PENG and OSIS in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), ENPH carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.9x, gross margin of 46.6%, and ROIC of 10.5%. By comparison, PENG (Penguin Solutions Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 139.5x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $3.54B) and OSIS (OSI Systems Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 21.9x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ENPH leads on earnings multiple (19.9x) while PENG leads on capital efficiency (12.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ENPH?
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Per ENPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001463101), Enphase Energy Inc. generated $1.47B in revenue (+10.7% YoY), $172.1M in net income, and $95.9M in free cash flow against $3.51B in total assets and $572.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.56 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 6.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510044
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (6)Whales (5)SEC (12)Macro (8)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target
$77 Bull$24 Base$19 Bear
📬 FREE ENPH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ENPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ENPH SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.79 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$32.03+0.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$32.23-7.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$29.76-13.8% Next Q
Current
44
Grade D$25.65-6.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (52) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ENPH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ENPH currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($33.15) and Max Pain ($26.93) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $77.43.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ENPH• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ENPH Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±11.5% Swing Band

±$2.95 Expected Swing
$22.70 (-11.5%)Spot $25.65$28.60 (+11.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ENPH Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 44/100

Trailing EPS: $1.30 • YoY Revenue Growth: 10.7%

Model Bullish Setup (44/100)Model Risk Weight (56/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.47B$172.1M$95.9M46.6%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.33B$102.7M$480.1M47.3%
FY 20232023-12-31$2.29B$438.9M$593.7M46.6%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ENPH)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ENPH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ENPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -21.17%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-02O $24.99H $25.86L $24.99C $25.65VOL 10.14M
RES: $20.49SUP: $22.74SMA50: $33.15SMA200: $40.84
$77.23$62.76$48.29$33.81$19.34RES $20.49SUP $22.74$25.652026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ENPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ENPH Butterfly Map → + Track ENPH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
13.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ENPH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →
ENPH → FSLR Confirmed Filing
Both Enphase Energy (US-assembled microinverters) and First Solar (US CdTe utility-scale modules) derive material gross-margin uplift from IRA §45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credits and AD/CVD Southeast Asian solar tariffs.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ENPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ENPH)

Technology Rank #455 of 714 ⚔️ PENG vs ENPH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (ENPH vs. PENG, OSIS, IPGP, AXTI)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) ranks #455 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #242 by equity capitalization ($3.42B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ENPH leads on earnings valuation at 19.9x trailing P/E, while PENG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.4% ROIC and 28.8% gross margin. PENG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with ENPH at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ENPH ACTIVE
Enphase Energy Inc.
D 44/100 19.9x 46.6% 10.5% -0.81% $3.42B Benchmark Subject
PENG
Penguin Solutions Inc.
C 62/100 139.5x 28.8% 12.4% -11.67% $3.54B /peng-vs-enph →
OSIS
OSI Systems Inc.
D+ 55/100 21.9x 34.3% 11.4% -4.19% $3.27B /osis-vs-enph →
IPGP
IPG Photonics Corporation
E 31/100 103.5x 38.0% 0.6% -4.11% $3.22B /ipgp-vs-enph →
AXTI
AXT Inc
D- 38/100 — 12.7% -5.4% -9.56% $3.99B /axti-vs-enph →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001463101

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.47B (+10.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.33B , and -35.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $172.1M, operating cash flow of $136.5M, and free cash flow of $95.9M (-80.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ENPH closed FY2025 with $3.51B in total assets against $572.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.79, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.47B $172.1M $136.5M $95.9M $3.51B $572.2M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.33B $102.7M $513.7M $480.1M $3.25B $1.20B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.29B $438.9M $696.8M $593.7M $2.75B $643.3M

3. ENPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ENPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Enphase Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: ENPH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $25.65 (-0.81% 1D, market cap $3.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, ENPH ranks #455 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ENPH compare to PENG and OSIS in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), ENPH carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.9x, gross margin of 46.6%, and ROIC of 10.5%. By comparison, PENG (Penguin Solutions Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 139.5x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $3.54B) and OSIS (OSI Systems Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 21.9x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ENPH leads on earnings multiple (19.9x) while PENG leads on capital efficiency (12.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ENPH?

Per ENPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001463101), Enphase Energy Inc. generated $1.47B in revenue (+10.7% YoY), $172.1M in net income, and $95.9M in free cash flow against $3.51B in total assets and $572.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ENPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ENPH last traded at $25.65 (-0.81% on volume of 7,343,673 shares), positioning the stock -22.62% below its 50-day simple moving average ($33.15) and -37.19% below its 200-day simple moving average ($40.84). Across its 52-week range of $23.83 to $73.74, ENPH sits at the 3.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.5% ($22.70 to $28.60).

ENPH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ENPH's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ENPH stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±11.5% event move for ENPH, spanning a range between $22.7 and $28.6.

Direct Sub-Reports: ENPH RQD Cockpit ENPH 12M Forecast ENPH Earnings & Move ENPH Dividends & DRIP ENPH Insiders & 13F ENPH Whale Options ENPH Profit Sankey ENPH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 44/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ENPH — Enphase Energy Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:23:24Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ENPH carries an RQD Score of 44 and a letter grade of D, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." Across the five pillars, the fundamental cash engine scores 6 of 20 (ROIC 10.5%; FCF yield 2.8%), indicating weak cash generation relative to the capital employed. Whale 13F flow scores 5 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), the weakest pillar in the set. Insider conviction scores 13 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), the strongest pillar. Macro regime fit scores 8 of 20 (beta 1.21; sector sensitivity). Forensic balance sheet scores 12 of 20 (Altman Z 1.79; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.53).

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the upside case rests on insider flow and a Piotroski reading of 8 of 9, which points to improving financial health. The valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades at 19.9x trailing earnings against a 2.8% FCF yield, so the market is paying for earnings that the cash flow profile does not yet fully confirm. The rating's distribution warning, combined with the weakest pillar in institutional flow, suggests limited sponsorship behind the price. Macro sensitivity at a beta of 1.21 implies amplified moves relative to the market. This is an analytical reading of the source scores, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
25.86$3.42B19.918.518.31.30%1.21$23.83 - $73.7410.5%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1473.0M$157.5M$172.1MN/A$95.9M$474.3M$572.2M
FY 2024$1330.4M$77.3M$102.7MN/A$480.1M$369.1M$1201.1M
FY 2023$2290.8M$445.7M$438.9MN/A$593.7MN/A$643.3M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $1330.4M in FY 2024 to $1473.0M in FY 2025, while net income rose from $102.7M to $172.1M. Per the market data, the gross margin is 46.6%, operating margin 10.7%, and net margin 11.7%, with ROIC at 10.5%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 1.79 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9. Debt declined from $1201.1M in FY 2024 to $572.2M in FY 2025, and the Debt/Equity ratio is 0.53 per the RQD forensic pillar.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly graph, the sole link runs from ENPH to FSLR under the theme "EVs, Autonomous Fleets, Lithium & Megapack Storage," with relationship type POLICY_DEPENDENCY, evidence tier CONFIRMED_FILING, and direction effect MIXED_CONSTRAINT. Both companies depend on IRA §45X credits and AD/CVD Southeast Asian solar tariffs. The mixed constraint means a policy change to §45X transferability would hit both issuers' margins, while the residential demand drag affects Enphase specifically. The 2nd-order bottleneck to watch is elevated consumer financing rates depressing residential rooftop demand, even as AI data-center clean-power PPAs support First Solar's backlog. Per the graph, First Solar's utility backlog is above 60 GW.

Open Questions

  • What is the actual FCF trend beyond FY 2025, given FY 2024 FCF of $480.1M fell to $95.9M?
  • What drives the EPS figures, which are reported as N/A across all three periods?
  • What is the insider transaction detail underlying the 13/20 insider conviction score?
  • What is the FY 2023 cash balance, which is reported as N/A?
  • What do the underlying article bodies behind the Wednesday decline headlines say?

ENPH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ENPH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ENPH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $25.65?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ENPH 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ENPH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $22.76 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ENPH (D • RQD 44/100) a Buy at $25.86?

Welcome to the ENPH (Enphase Energy Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 44/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Semiconductors. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $21.46 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $25.86

Pump the brakes on ENPH — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ENPH, but look at what you are paying: 19.9x trailing P/E with 46.6% gross margins. Unless Enphase Energy Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $31.03 (+20.0%)
Spot @ $25.86

ENPH cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ENPH, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Semiconductors and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $25.86 (52-wk range $23.83 - $73.74), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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