Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.5% Move

The Roarable RQD rating is 48 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning" (). The five pillars are:

• Fundamental Cash Engine: 12 / 20. this pillar reflects ROIC of 30.4% and FCF yield of -0.21%. The split is informative: returns on invested capital are high, but the stock is currently not generating positive free cash flow relative to its market value. Investors weighing the upside case should note that strong capital returns do not yet translate into cash returned to shareholders.
• Whale / 13F Flow: 7 / 20. this pillar assesses institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score is weak, indicating limited evidence in the source data of sustained institutional buying support.
• Insider Conviction: 10 / 20. this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score is below midpoint, so insider and congressional activity does not provide a strong confirming signal.
• Macro Regime Fit: 5 / 20. this reflects Beta of 1.13 and sector sensitivity. This is the weakest pillar. A beta above 1.0 means the stock has historically been expected to move more than the broad market, which amplifies drawdown risk in a weaker macro regime. This is a valuation and volatility tradeoff, not a directional forecast.
• Forensic Balance Sheet: 14 / 20. this reflects Altman Z of 6.47, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.42. This is the strongest pillar and indicates a financially sound balance sheet by these measures.

Taken together, the rating points to a company with healthy balance-sheet metrics and high reported returns on capital, offset by weak free cash flow, weak institutional and insider signals, and elevated market sensitivity. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: trailing P/E of 27.3 versus forward P/E of 22.9 implies expected earnings growth in the source's estimates, while the negative FCF yield means current cash generation does not support the market price. These are educational observations, not a recommendation.

Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) is a NYSE-listed company classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Homebuilding industry (per the company profile). — for specific products, customers, or revenue-generation detail beyond the sector classification. The source data provides gross margin of 12.1%, operating margin of 7.1%, and net margin of 5.4% (per the market data section), which describe profitability but not the operating model itself.

Revenue rose from $2.85B (FY 2023) to $3.75B (FY 2025), while FY 2025 free cash flow turned negative at -$11.7M after positive FCF in the two prior years. Debt declined from $801.5M in FY 2023 to $266.5M in FY 2025. The Altman Z-Score is 6.47, the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.42. Net margin is 5.4% per the market data section. — for period-end cash balances.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: High ROIC of 30.4% and a strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 6.47, Piotroski F 6/9, Debt/Equity 0.42) with debt falling from $801.5M to $266.5M. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 (ROIC 30.4%, FCF yield -0.21%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $78.14 – $171.58 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Negative FCF yield of -0.21% with FY 2025 FCF at -$11.7M, weak whale-flow (7/20) and macro-fit (5/20) scores, and Beta of 1.13. Investors must weigh 27.3x trailing P/E and 13.7x EV/EBITDA against 7.1% operating margins and a 1.13 macro beta if sector demand softens.

Sector classification is Consumer Discretionary / Homebuilding (). The beta of 1.13 (per the market data) is the only available indicator of sensitivity to broad market movement.

• Key Question #1: What are the drivers of negative free cash flow in FY 2025 despite net income of $201.8M, and do they reflect working capital, capital expenditure, or another factor?
• Key Question #2: What is the consensus analyst rating and price target range, and how do they compare with the current price of 108.06?
• Key Question #3: What are the insider, 13F, and Congressional trading activity levels that underlie the weak whale-flow and insider-conviction scores?