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Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$16.17 -5.93% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.97

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $35.34B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on EC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $16.17 (-5.93% 1D, market cap $35.34B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EC ranks #62 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EC compare to EQT and PBA in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), EC carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, EQT (EQT Corporation) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 8.3%, cap $34.64B) and PBA (Pembina Pipeline Corp. (Canada)) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $29.87B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EQT leads on earnings multiple (16.7x) while TPL leads on capital efficiency (25.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EC?
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For Ecopetrol S.A. (EC), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs and sector rank #62 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.97 (-1.26%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 15.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510065
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B
Cash (12)Whales (11)SEC (16)Macro (14)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target
$20 Bull$17 Base$13 Bear
📬 FREE EC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY EC SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.74 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 76% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
73
Grade B$17.90-3.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
70
Grade B$17.24+2.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$17.68-8.5% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$16.17+1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the EC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, EC faces multiple-compression risk if 32.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.21) or 200D SMA ($15.17) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($16.68) toward Bear Floor ($13.01).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “EC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your EC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $16.17: 618.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $13.01
$8,046
$-1,954 (-19.5%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $16.68
$10,315
+$315 (+3.2%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $19.68
$12,171
+$2,171 (+21.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$1869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$1558%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (EC Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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EC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.25%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $17.28H $17.28L $16.17C $16.17VOL 1.13M
RES: $18.76SUP: $15.83SMA50: $17.21SMA200: $15.17
$18.91$16.73$14.54$12.36$10.18RES $18.76SUP $15.83$16.172026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EC Butterfly Map → + Track EC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EC)

Energy Rank #62 of 211 ⚔️ EQT vs EC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (EC vs. EQT, PBA, WDS, TPL)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) ranks #62 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #37 by equity capitalization ($35.34B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EQT leads on earnings valuation at 16.7x trailing P/E, while TPL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.9% ROIC and — gross margin. EQT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with EC at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
EC ACTIVE
Ecopetrol S.A.
C 65/100 32.8x — 9.9% -5.93% $35.34B Benchmark Subject
EQT
EQT Corporation
B- 70/100 16.7x 82.3% 8.3% -0.97% $34.64B /eqt-vs-ec →
PBA
Pembina Pipeline Corp. (Canada)
C+ 69/100 32.8x — 9.9% -1.93% $29.87B /pba-vs-ec →
WDS
Woodside Energy Group Limited American
C+ 68/100 32.8x — 9.9% -4.29% $44.77B /wds-vs-ec →
TPL
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
C 65/100 47.0x — 25.9% -0.52% $22.88B /tpl-vs-ec →

2. EC Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) operates in Oil & Gas Production (Energy) with an equity capitalization of $35.34B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 30.5x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.

3. EC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $16.17 (-5.93% 1D, market cap $35.34B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EC ranks #62 in composite RQD confidence.

How does EC compare to EQT and PBA in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), EC carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, EQT (EQT Corporation) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 8.3%, cap $34.64B) and PBA (Pembina Pipeline Corp. (Canada)) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $29.87B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EQT leads on earnings multiple (16.7x) while TPL leads on capital efficiency (25.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EC?

For Ecopetrol S.A. (EC), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs and sector rank #62 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is EC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EC last traded at $16.17 (-5.93% on volume of 1,804,456 shares), positioning the stock -6.04% below its 50-day simple moving average ($17.21) and +6.59% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.17). Across its 52-week range of $9.10 to $18.38, EC sits at the 76.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($15.18 to $17.16).

Direct Sub-Reports: EC RQD Cockpit EC 12M Forecast EC Earnings & Move EC Dividends & DRIP EC Insiders & 13F EC Whale Options EC Profit Sankey EC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

EC — Ecopetrol S.A.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 65/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $16.17 (-5.93% 1D, market capitalization $35.34B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 0.98x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.74, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, Oil & Gas Production industry,. — for detailed product lines, customers, or revenue model. Per the market data, the company reports an operating margin of 13.9% and a net margin of 10.9%, and the gross margin is listed as 0%.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 65/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 2.21% and institutional whale pillar of 11/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.10 – $18.38 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 32.8x trailing P/E and 21.0x EV/EBITDA against 13.9% operating margins and a 0.98x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), EC carries a macro regime beta of 0.98 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can EC sustain or expand its 13.9% operating margin and 9.9% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (2.21% FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score 3.74) toward the $18.38 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is EC's 30.5x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.98x)?

EC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to EC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

EC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $16.17?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON EC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on EC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $19.77 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strongest RQD pillar is the forensic balance sheet (16/20) with Altman Z 3.74 and Piotroski F 7/9, a comparatively solid financial base

Strongest RQD pillar is the forensic balance sheet (16/20) with Altman Z 3.74 and Piotroski F 7/9, a comparatively solid financial base.. When you look under the hood at EC, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 9.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (11/20) has been quietly accumulating below $18.38. My 12M target is $19.77.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Fair point on 32.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil & Gas Production. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.24 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $17.19

A P/E TTM of 32.8 combined with a 2.21% FCF yield leaves the valuation resting on expectations rather than current cash generation.

Fading this rally in EC at $17.19. A P/E TTM of 32.8 combined with a 2.21% FCF yield leaves the valuation resting on expectations rather than current cash generation.. With a beta of 0.98 and the stock sitting at $17.19 (52-wk range $9.10–$18.38), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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