Why COF Stock slipped -1.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$204.85 -1.86% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $203.77

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $128.06B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is COF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $204.85 (-1.86% 1D, market cap $128.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, COF ranks #169 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does COF compare to MFG and BNS in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), COF carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 52.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 0.9%. By comparison, MFG (Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan)) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $124.37B) and BNS (Bank Nova Scotia Halifax Pfd 3) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $117.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BNY leads on earnings multiple (18.3x) while MFG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COF?
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Per COF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000927628), Capital One Financial Corporation generated $8.06B in revenue (+36.3% YoY), $2.45B in net income, and $26.14B in free cash flow against $669.01B in total assets and $249.93B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $203.78 (-0.52%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 324.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510068
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B-
Cash (13)Whales (15)SEC (15)Macro (13)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
$273 Bull$214 Base$167 Bear
📬 FREE COF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for COF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY COF SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$198.07+1.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
63
Grade C+$201.56+0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$203.44+0.7% Next Q
Current
68
Grade C+$204.85+1.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the COF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, COF faces multiple-compression risk if 52.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($204.35) or 200D SMA ($200.92) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($214.07) toward Bear Floor ($166.97).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $COF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “COF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why COF Stock slipped -1.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) slipped -1.86% to $204.85, trading at 36% of its 52-week range ($174.24 – $259.64). Solid steady margins (1% return on capital), mixed timing at 52x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 36% of its 52-week range ($174.24 – $259.64) with RSI-14 at 58.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.9% around $204.85 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $26.1B annual free cash flow.
Live COF Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (COF Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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COF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.86%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $204.9H $208.7L $204.9C $204.9VOL 3.76M
RES: $241.1SUP: $186.9SMA50: $204.4SMA200: $200.9
$231.9$216.3$200.7$185.0$169.4RES $241.1SUP $186.9$204.92026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

COF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
37.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +36.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on COF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for COF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for COF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (COF)

Financials Rank #169 of 1096 ⚔️ MFG vs COF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (COF vs. MFG, BNS, UBS, BNY)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) ranks #169 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #24 by equity capitalization ($128.06B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BNY leads on earnings valuation at 18.3x trailing P/E, while MFG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. COF currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
COF ACTIVE
Capital One Financial Corporation
C+ 68/100 52.2x — 0.9% -1.86% $128.06B Benchmark Subject
MFG
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan)
C- 60/100 32.8x — 9.9% -3.30% $124.37B /mfg-vs-cof →
BNS
Bank Nova Scotia Halifax Pfd 3
C+ 66/100 32.8x — 9.9% -1.73% $117.05B /bns-vs-cof →
UBS
UBS Group AG Registered
D+ 58/100 32.8x — 9.9% -0.91% $149.37B /ubs-vs-cof →
BNY
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
C+ 68/100 18.3x — 2.4% -1.51% $101.35B /bny-vs-cof →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000927628

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) reported GAAP revenue of $8.06B (+36.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.92B , and +42.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.45B, operating cash flow of $27.72B, and free cash flow of $26.14B (+54.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, COF closed FY2025 with $669.01B in total assets against $249.93B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $8.06B $2.45B $27.72B $26.14B $669.01B $249.93B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $5.92B $4.75B $18.16B $16.95B $490.14B $193.21B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $5.64B $4.89B $20.57B $20.32B $70.43B $16.48B

3. COF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is COF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $204.85 (-1.86% 1D, market cap $128.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, COF ranks #169 in composite RQD confidence.

How does COF compare to MFG and BNS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), COF carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 52.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 0.9%. By comparison, MFG (Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan)) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $124.37B) and BNS (Bank Nova Scotia Halifax Pfd 3) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $117.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BNY leads on earnings multiple (18.3x) while MFG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COF?

Per COF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000927628), Capital One Financial Corporation generated $8.06B in revenue (+36.3% YoY), $2.45B in net income, and $26.14B in free cash flow against $669.01B in total assets and $249.93B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is COF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

COF last traded at $204.85 (-1.86% on volume of 4,555,001 shares), positioning the stock +0.24% above its 50-day simple moving average ($204.35) and +1.96% above its 200-day simple moving average ($200.92). Across its 52-week range of $174.24 to $259.64, COF sits at the 35.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.9% ($194.81 to $214.89).

COF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is COF stock moving today?

Why COF Stock slipped -1.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (1% return on capital), mixed timing at 52x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

COF — Capital One Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:09:29Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, COF scores 68 out of 100 (letter grade C+; verdict: Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout). The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 13 / 20. Per the RQD pillar detail, ROIC is 0.9% and FCF yield is 20.41%. The low ROIC against a high FCF yield is a tension the pillar does not resolve; investors should note that the two metrics measure different things and point in different directions on quality of capital deployment.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 15 / 20. The RQD pillar references institutional accumulation and options positioning. The underlying 13F and options detail is not itemized in the source data.
  • Insider Conviction: 12 / 20. The RQD pillar references SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The individual transactions are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 13 / 20. Per the RQD pillar detail, beta is 1.08, indicating modestly above-market sensitivity to broad market moves.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 15 / 20. Per the RQD pillar detail, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5.

Investor implications, framed analytically: the score sits in the upper-neutral band, which the verdict label characterizes as a watch-for-breakout posture rather than a conviction signal in either direction. The strongest pillar is Forensic Balance Sheet; the weakest is Insider Conviction. Valuation is the central tradeoff in the market data: trailing P/E of 52.2 and forward P/E of 43.8 are elevated relative to the cash-flow yield, and EV/EBITDA of 64.8 further highlights that the market is pricing substantial future earnings expansion. An upside driver would be sustained earnings growth that compresses these multiples; a downside risk is that the multiples persist while reported earnings soften.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
208.74$128.06B52.243.864.841.18%1.08$174.24 - $259.640.9%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$8062.0M$2894.5M$2453.0MN/A$26140.0MN/A$249926.9M
FY 2024$5915.0M$5605.0M$4750.0MN/A$16955.0MN/A$193212.0M
FY 2023$5645.0M$5766.7M$4887.0MN/A$20321.0MN/A$16481.2M

Per the market data, operating margin is 37.1% and net margin is 30.4%, with ROIC at 0.9%. Per the RQD forensic pillar, Altman Z is 2.5 and Piotroski F is 7/9. Per the SEC financials, reported debt rose from $16481.2M (FY 2023) to $249926.9M (FY 2025), a change the source data does not explain. Reported net income declined from $4887.0M (FY 2023) to $2453.0M (FY 2025) while revenue in the same table moved from $5645.0M to $8062.0M; the source does not reconcile these movements.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news section, six headlines are tagged to COF, all with a YELLOW light and MARKET WIRE impact label:

  • A Yahoo Finance report on COF's Q3 earnings call commentary.
  • A Seeking Alpha report referencing the Discover deal as a potential repricing catalyst.
  • A StockInvest.us forecast article.
  • A Yahoo Finance report on housing and debanking news, framed as items the company needs to address.
  • A MarketScreener earnings flash reporting Q3 revenue of $16.34B against a FactSet estimate of $16.25B.
  • A MarketBeat report on an institutional holder, Courier Capital LLC.

Risk watch items are the debanking and housing matters referenced in the news, and the unexplained debt and net-income movements noted above. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What explains the increase in reported debt from $16481.2M (FY 2023) to $249926.9M (FY 2025) against the decline in net income?
  • Which specific 13F filers and options positions underpin the 15/20 Whale 13F Flow pillar?
  • What is the EPS figure for the financial periods, given that all reported EPS values are N/A?
  • How do the Discover deal and the debanking and housing items affect reported earnings and the risk profile?
  • What is the reconciliation between the FY 2025 operating income of $2894.5M and the market data operating margin of 37.1%?

COF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to COF Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

COF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $204.85?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON COF 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on COF:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $225.44 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is COF (C+ • RQD 68/100) a Buy at $208.74?

Welcome to the COF (Capital One Financial Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 68/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (52.2x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $164.90 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $208.74

Pump the brakes on COF — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on COF, but look at what you are paying: 52.2x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Capital One Financial Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $258.84 (+24.0%)
Spot @ $208.74

COF cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on COF, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $208.74 (52-wk range $174.24 - $259.64), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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