Stock Ratings / Financials / COF / earnings

MFG (60) BNS (66) UBS (58) BNY (68) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.9% Move

$204.85 -1.86% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $203.77

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $128.06B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on COF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is COF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $204.85 (-1.86% 1D, market cap $128.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, COF ranks #169 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does COF compare to MFG and BNS in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), COF carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 52.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 0.9%. By comparison, MFG (Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan)) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $124.37B) and BNS (Bank Nova Scotia Halifax Pfd 3) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $117.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BNY leads on earnings multiple (18.3x) while MFG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COF?

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Per COF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000927628), Capital One Financial Corporation generated $8.06B in revenue (+36.3% YoY), $2.45B in net income, and $26.14B in free cash flow against $669.01B in total assets and $249.93B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $203.78 (-0.52%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 324.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for COF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY COF SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$198.07+1.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$201.56+0.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$203.44+0.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$204.85+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the COF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, COF faces multiple-compression risk if 52.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($204.35) or 200D SMA ($200.92) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($214.07) toward Bear Floor ($166.97).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $COF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “COF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.9% Swing Band

±$10.04 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

COF Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 68/100

Trailing EPS: $4.00 • YoY Revenue Growth: 36.3%

Model Bullish Setup (68/100)Model Risk Weight (32/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$8.06B	$2.45B	$26.14B	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$5.92B	$4.75B	$16.95B	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$5.64B	$4.89B	$20.32B	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating COF & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on COF
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

COF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.86%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $204.9H $208.7L $204.9C $204.9VOL 3.76M

RES: $241.1SUP: $186.9SMA50: $204.4SMA200: $200.9

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

COF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 COF Butterfly Map → + Track COF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

37.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +36.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on COF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for COF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for COF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (COF)

Financials Rank #169 of 1096 ⚔️ MFG vs COF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (COF vs. MFG, BNS, UBS, BNY)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) ranks #169 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #24 by equity capitalization ($128.06B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BNY leads on earnings valuation at 18.3x trailing P/E, while MFG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. COF currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
COF ACTIVE Capital One Financial Corporation	C+	68/100	52.2x	—	0.9%	-1.86%	$128.06B	Benchmark Subject
MFG Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan)	C-	60/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-3.30%	$124.37B	/mfg-vs-cof →
BNS Bank Nova Scotia Halifax Pfd 3	C+	66/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-1.73%	$117.05B	/bns-vs-cof →
UBS UBS Group AG Registered	D+	58/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-0.91%	$149.37B	/ubs-vs-cof →
BNY The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation	C+	68/100	18.3x	—	2.4%	-1.51%	$101.35B	/bny-vs-cof →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000927628

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) reported GAAP revenue of $8.06B (+36.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.92B , and +42.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.45B, operating cash flow of $27.72B, and free cash flow of $26.14B (+54.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, COF closed FY2025 with $669.01B in total assets against $249.93B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$8.06B	$2.45B	$27.72B	$26.14B	$669.01B	$249.93B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$5.92B	$4.75B	$18.16B	$16.95B	$490.14B	$193.21B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$5.64B	$4.89B	$20.57B	$20.32B	$70.43B	$16.48B

3. COF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is COF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does COF compare to MFG and BNS in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COF?

Where is COF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

COF last traded at $204.85 (-1.86% on volume of 4,555,001 shares), positioning the stock +0.24% above its 50-day simple moving average ($204.35) and +1.96% above its 200-day simple moving average ($200.92). Across its 52-week range of $174.24 to $259.64, COF sits at the 35.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.9% ($194.81 to $214.89).

COF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is COF's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is COF stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.9% event move for COF, spanning a range between $194.81 and $214.89.

Direct Sub-Reports: COF RQD Cockpit COF 12M Forecast COF Earnings & Move COF Dividends & DRIP COF Insiders & 13F COF Whale Options COF Profit Sankey COF News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

COF — Capital One Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:09:29Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, COF scores 68 out of 100 (letter grade C+; verdict: Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout). The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 13 / 20. Per the RQD pillar detail, ROIC is 0.9% and FCF yield is 20.41%. The low ROIC against a high FCF yield is a tension the pillar does not resolve; investors should note that the two metrics measure different things and point in different directions on quality of capital deployment.
Whale 13F Flow: 15 / 20. The RQD pillar references institutional accumulation and options positioning. The underlying 13F and options detail is not itemized in the source data.
Insider Conviction: 12 / 20. The RQD pillar references SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The individual transactions are not itemized in the source data.
Macro Regime Fit: 13 / 20. Per the RQD pillar detail, beta is 1.08, indicating modestly above-market sensitivity to broad market moves.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 15 / 20. Per the RQD pillar detail, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5.

Investor implications, framed analytically: the score sits in the upper-neutral band, which the verdict label characterizes as a watch-for-breakout posture rather than a conviction signal in either direction. The strongest pillar is Forensic Balance Sheet; the weakest is Insider Conviction. Valuation is the central tradeoff in the market data: trailing P/E of 52.2 and forward P/E of 43.8 are elevated relative to the cash-flow yield, and EV/EBITDA of 64.8 further highlights that the market is pricing substantial future earnings expansion. An upside driver would be sustained earnings growth that compresses these multiples; a downside risk is that the multiples persist while reported earnings soften.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
208.74	$128.06B	52.2	43.8	64.8	4	1.18%	1.08	$174.24 - $259.64	0.9%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$8062.0M	$2894.5M	$2453.0M	N/A	$26140.0M	N/A	$249926.9M
FY 2024	$5915.0M	$5605.0M	$4750.0M	N/A	$16955.0M	N/A	$193212.0M
FY 2023	$5645.0M	$5766.7M	$4887.0M	N/A	$20321.0M	N/A	$16481.2M

Per the market data, operating margin is 37.1% and net margin is 30.4%, with ROIC at 0.9%. Per the RQD forensic pillar, Altman Z is 2.5 and Piotroski F is 7/9. Per the SEC financials, reported debt rose from $16481.2M (FY 2023) to $249926.9M (FY 2025), a change the source data does not explain. Reported net income declined from $4887.0M (FY 2023) to $2453.0M (FY 2025) while revenue in the same table moved from $5645.0M to $8062.0M; the source does not reconcile these movements.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news section, six headlines are tagged to COF, all with a YELLOW light and MARKET WIRE impact label:

A Yahoo Finance report on COF's Q3 earnings call commentary.
A Seeking Alpha report referencing the Discover deal as a potential repricing catalyst.
A StockInvest.us forecast article.
A Yahoo Finance report on housing and debanking news, framed as items the company needs to address.
A MarketScreener earnings flash reporting Q3 revenue of $16.34B against a FactSet estimate of $16.25B.
A MarketBeat report on an institutional holder, Courier Capital LLC.

Risk watch items are the debanking and housing matters referenced in the news, and the unexplained debt and net-income movements noted above. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What explains the increase in reported debt from $16481.2M (FY 2023) to $249926.9M (FY 2025) against the decline in net income?
Which specific 13F filers and options positions underpin the 15/20 Whale 13F Flow pillar?
What is the EPS figure for the financial periods, given that all reported EPS values are N/A?
How do the Discover deal and the debanking and housing items affect reported earnings and the risk profile?
What is the reconciliation between the FY 2025 operating income of $2894.5M and the market data operating margin of 37.1%?

COF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to COF Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 5h ago

What Capital One Financial (COF) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

Yahoo Finance report covering Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 8h ago

Capital One: The Discover Deal Could Reprice The Stock (NYSE:COF)

Seeking Alpha report covering Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 11h ago

Capital One Financial Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy COF?

StockInvest.us report covering Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 14h ago

What Does Capital One Financial (COF) Need To Prove After Housing And Debanking News?

Yahoo Finance report covering Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.marketscreener.com • 17h ago

Earnings Flash (COF) Capital One Financial Corporation Reports Q3 Revenue $16.34B, vs. FactSet Est of $16.25B

www.marketscreener.com report covering Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 20h ago

Capital One Financial Corporation $COF Shares Bought by Courier Capital LLC

MarketBeat report covering Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 23h ago

Capital One Financial Corporation 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:COF) 2026-10-20

Seeking Alpha report covering Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Capital One Financial (COF) Is Getting Attention, What Are Investors Missing?

Yahoo Finance report covering Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

COF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $204.85?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON COF 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $225.44 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is COF (C+ • RQD 68/100) a Buy at $208.74?

Welcome to the COF (Capital One Financial Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 68/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (52.2x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $164.90 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $208.74

Pump the brakes on COF — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on COF, but look at what you are paying: 52.2x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Capital One Financial Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $258.84 (+24.0%)

Spot @ $208.74

COF cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on COF, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $208.74 (52-wk range $174.24 - $259.64), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.