Cipher Digital Inc. (CIFR) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CIFR scores 28 out of 100, earning a letter grade of E and the verdict "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20 (ROIC -11.5%; FCF yield -18%), Whale 13F Flow 5/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 6/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 3/20 (Beta 0.92; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 8/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the pillar profile points to weakness across every dimension, with the lowest scores concentrated in macro regime fit and institutional flow. The cash engine score reflects negative return on invested capital and a deeply negative free cash flow yield, meaning the business is not currently generating cash relative to its capital base. The forensic balance sheet score is the highest of the five pillars but remains below midpoint, with a Piotroski F-Score of 4 out of 9 and an Altman Z-Score of 2.5. Any upside case would have to rest on a reversal in cash generation that the source data does not show. The rating is a structured summary of the available data, not a forecast, and it does not account for information outside the provided sources.

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose across the three reported periods while operating and net losses widened sharply in FY 2025. Gross margin is 0% and operating and net margins are each -60% per the market data. ROIC is -11.5% and the Roarable RQD rating records an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. Debt rose from $0.0M in FY 2024 to $2711.6M in FY 2025 while cash rose to $628.3M, and free cash flow was negative in every reported period.

• RISK WATCH (Yahoo Finance-sourced headline, 2026-11-02 window): Shares fell 12% after an announced $850 million convertible debt offering. This is the most material item in the feed and aligns with the rise in reported debt.
• RISK WATCH (24/7 Wall St.): Shares tumbled 14% on the same $850M convertible note offering and a share exchange, with Applied Digital reported down 5%.
• RISK WATCH (Yahoo Finance, analytical): A risk-oriented article on how risky the stock is, flagged red by the feed.
• MARKET WIRE (Trefis): A "what changed and what did not" piece, flagged yellow.
• MARKET WIRE (Yahoo Finance): A "what needs to be true to buy" piece, flagged yellow.
• CATALYST (Yahoo Finance, market action): A report that the stock dipped while the market gained, flagged green.

Per the market data, the stock closed at $8.10, down -8.68% on the session, with volume of 39,467,011. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply chain and no butterfly links or proprietary signals.

• What is the company's business model, product set, and revenue source, given that the source data provides only sector classification?
• What are the terms, maturity, and conversion price of the $850 million convertible note offering, and how much dilution would the share exchange create?
• What is the basis for the reported jump in debt to $2711.6M and what is the cash runway given free cash flow of $-695.9M in FY 2025?
• Why is P/E (TTM) unavailable while EPS is -1.8, and what are the EV/EBITDA and gross margin trajectories?
• What is the institutional and insider ownership profile, given that the holders and analyst data sections are empty?