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Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$77.04 +5.78% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $77.70

Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.15B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BYD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Boyd Gaming Corporation (NYSE: BYD) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $77.04 (+5.78% 1D, market cap $5.15B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BYD ranks #438 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BYD compare to RRR and CHH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), BYD carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.7%. By comparison, RRR (Red Rock Resorts Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $5.16B) and CHH (Choice Hotels International Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 17.3%, cap $5.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CHH leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while CHH leads on capital efficiency (17.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BYD?
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Per BYD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000906553), Boyd Gaming Corporation generated $4.09B in revenue (+4.1% YoY), $1.84B in net income, and $388.5M in free cash flow against $6.57B in total assets and $2.05B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $77.69 (+0.85%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 9.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510055
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (7)Whales (10)SEC (14)Macro (8)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.3% Base Target
$96 Bull$76 Base$59 Bear
📬 FREE BYD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BYD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BYD SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.44 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 18.3% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$69.70+1.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
50
Grade C-$70.61+0.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
52
Grade C-$70.77+8.9% Next Q
Current
55
Grade D+$77.04-0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BYD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, BYD faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($72.74) or 200D SMA ($81.60) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($76.00) toward Bear Floor ($59.28).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BYD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BYD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BYD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $77.04: 129.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $59.28
$7,695
$-2,305 (-23.1%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $76.00
$9,865
$-135 (-1.3%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $95.98
$12,458
+$2,458 (+24.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$7974%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$9069%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$6858%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BYD)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BYD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BYD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.06%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $72.43H $77.04L $72.43C $77.04VOL 1.13M
RES: $94.37SUP: $58.84SMA50: $72.74SMA200: $81.60
$93.26$85.60$77.94$70.28$62.62RES $94.37SUP $58.84$77.042026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BYD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BYD Butterfly Map → + Track BYD →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-8.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BYD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BYD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BYD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BYD)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #438 of 1011 ⚔️ RRR vs BYD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BYD vs. RRR, CHH, WH, CZR)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) ranks #438 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #263 by equity capitalization ($5.15B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CHH leads on earnings valuation at 13.8x trailing P/E, while CHH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.3% ROIC and — gross margin. CHH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with BYD at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BYD ACTIVE
Boyd Gaming Corporation
D+ 55/100 — — 13.7% +5.78% $5.15B Benchmark Subject
RRR
Red Rock Resorts Inc. (Class A)
D 50/100 14.5x — 13.7% +4.86% $5.16B /rrr-vs-byd →
CHH
Choice Hotels International Inc.
C- 59/100 13.8x — 17.3% +6.70% $5.02B /chh-vs-byd →
WH
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc.
D+ 53/100 29.1x — 16.2% +4.43% $5.48B /wh-vs-byd →
CZR
Caesars Entertainment Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — 10.3% -0.34% $5.93B /czr-vs-byd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000906553

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) reported GAAP revenue of $4.09B (+4.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.93B , and +9.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.84B, operating cash flow of $976.7M, and free cash flow of $388.5M (-30.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, BYD closed FY2025 with $6.57B in total assets against $2.05B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.44, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.09B $1.84B $976.7M $388.5M $6.57B $2.05B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.93B $578.0M $957.1M $556.7M $6.39B $3.13B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.74B $620.0M $914.5M $746.3M $4.49B $1.05B

3. BYD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BYD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Boyd Gaming Corporation (NYSE: BYD) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $77.04 (+5.78% 1D, market cap $5.15B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BYD ranks #438 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BYD compare to RRR and CHH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), BYD carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.7%. By comparison, RRR (Red Rock Resorts Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $5.16B) and CHH (Choice Hotels International Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 17.3%, cap $5.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CHH leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while CHH leads on capital efficiency (17.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BYD?

Per BYD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000906553), Boyd Gaming Corporation generated $4.09B in revenue (+4.1% YoY), $1.84B in net income, and $388.5M in free cash flow against $6.57B in total assets and $2.05B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BYD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BYD last traded at $77.04 (+5.78% on volume of 1,322,857 shares), positioning the stock +5.91% above its 50-day simple moving average ($72.74) and -5.59% below its 200-day simple moving average ($81.60). Across its 52-week range of $65.00 to $91.41, BYD sits at the 45.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($72.88 to $81.20).

Direct Sub-Reports: BYD RQD Cockpit BYD 12M Forecast BYD Earnings & Move BYD Dividends & DRIP BYD Insiders & 13F BYD Whale Options BYD Profit Sankey BYD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BYD — Boyd Gaming Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $77.04 (+5.78% 1D, market capitalization $5.15B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 18.3%, and free cash flow yield of 7.59%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.05x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.44, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.78x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Sector: Consumer Discretionary. Industry: Hotels/Resorts. Exchange: NYSE..1B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) reported $4.09B in annual revenue (up from $3.93B in FY2024, +4.1% YoY) and $1.84B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.74B revenue, $620.0M net income) through FY2025, BYD scaled operating cash flow to $976.7M and free cash flow to $388.5M, backed by $6.57B in total assets against $2.05B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 55/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.59% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $65.00 – $91.41 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation and 5.5x EV/EBITDA against 18.3% operating margins and a 1.05x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Hotels/Resorts (Consumer Discretionary), BYD carries a macro regime beta of 1.05 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can BYD sustain or expand its 18.3% operating margin and 13.7% ROIC against Hotels/Resorts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.09B and free cash flow of $388.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.05B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BYD's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.05x)?

BYD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BYD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BYD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $77.04?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BYD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BYD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $93.22 (+28.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

BYD trades at EV/EBITDA of 5.5 with a 7.59% FCF yield and 13.7% ROIC, while the Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 14/20 on Altman Z

Picked up a starter position in BYD in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $72.83. BYD trades at EV/EBITDA of 5.5 with a 7.59% FCF yield and 13.7% ROIC, while the Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 14/20 on Altman Z 2.44 and Piotroski F 7/9.. Trading inside a $65.00–$91.41 52-week range with 7.59% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Hotels/Resorts multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Hotels/Resorts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $56.81 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $72.83

The RQD score of 53 (D+, Roarable Sell) is driven by a 7/20 Fundamental Cash Engine and 8/20 Whale 13F Flow, with FCF falling from $746

Careful chasing BYD at $72.83. The RQD score of 53 (D+, Roarable Sell) is driven by a 7/20 Fundamental Cash Engine and 8/20 Whale 13F Flow, with FCF falling from $746.3M in FY 2023 to $388.5M in FY 2025.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 18.3%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $56.81 on multiple compression.

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