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Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$43.87 +2.33% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.97

Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $7.49B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BROS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE: BROS) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $43.87 (+2.33% 1D, market cap $7.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BROS ranks #389 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BROS compare to CAVA and EAT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), BROS carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 96.2x, gross margin of 25.9%, and ROIC of 20.7%. By comparison, CAVA (CAVA Group Inc.) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 108.5x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $6.86B) and EAT (Brinker International Inc.) posts a A- grade (82/100 RQD, P/E 18.8x, ROIC 53.3%, cap $8.81B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EAT leads on earnings multiple (18.8x) while EAT leads on capital efficiency (53.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BROS?
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Per BROS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001866581), Dutch Bros Inc. generated $1.64B in revenue (+27.9% YoY), $79.8M in net income, and $54.4M in free cash flow against $3.01B in total assets and $196.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (26% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.97 (+0.23%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 3.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-
Cash (15)Whales (8)SEC (16)Macro (8)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target
$78 Bull$44 Base$34 Bear
📬 FREE BROS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BROS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BROS SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.3% FCF Margin ($54.4M FCF) & 25.9% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53.3) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$39.17+7.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$42.26+1.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$42.93+2.2% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$43.87-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BROS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, BROS faces multiple-compression risk if 96.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.09) or 200D SMA ($53.09) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($43.67) toward Bear Floor ($34.06).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BROS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BROS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BROS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $43.87: 227.9 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $34.06
$7,764
$-2,236 (-22.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $43.67
$9,954
$-46 (-0.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $77.72
$17,716
+$7,716 (+77.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$4574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$7369%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$3958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BROS)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BROS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BROS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.82%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $43.98H $43.98L $42.87C $43.87VOL 3.50M
RES: $43.55SUP: $34.58SMA50: $42.09SMA200: $53.09
$76.65$65.77$54.89$44.01$33.13RES $43.55SUP $34.58$43.872026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BROS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BROS Butterfly Map → + Track BROS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +27.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BROS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BROS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BROS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BROS)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #389 of 1011 ⚔️ CAVA vs BROS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BROS vs. CAVA, EAT, JMKE, CAKE)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) ranks #389 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #209 by equity capitalization ($7.49B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EAT leads on earnings valuation at 18.8x trailing P/E, while EAT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 53.3% ROIC and — gross margin. EAT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 82/100 (A-) compared with BROS at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BROS ACTIVE
Dutch Bros Inc.
D+ 57/100 96.2x 25.9% 20.7% +2.33% $7.49B Benchmark Subject
CAVA
CAVA Group Inc.
D 51/100 108.5x — 5.9% +5.64% $6.86B /cava-vs-bros →
EAT
Brinker International Inc.
A- 82/100 18.8x — 53.3% -0.16% $8.81B /eat-vs-bros →
JMKE
Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.
D 47/100 32.8x — 2.4% +2.84% $5.81B /jmke-vs-bros →
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
B- 71/100 38.0x — 18.9% +0.28% $5.61B /cake-vs-bros →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001866581

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) reported GAAP revenue of $1.64B (+27.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.28B , and +69.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $79.8M, operating cash flow of $295.5M, and free cash flow of $54.4M (+120.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, BROS closed FY2025 with $3.01B in total assets against $196.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.00, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.64B $79.8M $295.5M $54.4M $3.01B $196.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.28B $35.3M $246.4M $24.7M $2.50B $219.8M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $965.8M $1.7M $139.9M $96.5M $4.23B $988.7M

3. BROS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BROS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE: BROS) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $43.87 (+2.33% 1D, market cap $7.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BROS ranks #389 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BROS compare to CAVA and EAT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), BROS carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 96.2x, gross margin of 25.9%, and ROIC of 20.7%. By comparison, CAVA (CAVA Group Inc.) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 108.5x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $6.86B) and EAT (Brinker International Inc.) posts a A- grade (82/100 RQD, P/E 18.8x, ROIC 53.3%, cap $8.81B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EAT leads on earnings multiple (18.8x) while EAT leads on capital efficiency (53.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BROS?

Per BROS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001866581), Dutch Bros Inc. generated $1.64B in revenue (+27.9% YoY), $79.8M in net income, and $54.4M in free cash flow against $3.01B in total assets and $196.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (26% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BROS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BROS last traded at $43.87 (+2.33% on volume of 5,833,866 shares), positioning the stock +4.23% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.09) and -17.37% below its 200-day simple moving average ($53.09). Across its 52-week range of $36.51 to $74.02, BROS sits at the 19.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.7% ($40.05 to $47.69).

Direct Sub-Reports: BROS RQD Cockpit BROS 12M Forecast BROS Earnings & Move BROS Dividends & DRIP BROS Insiders & 13F BROS Whale Options BROS Profit Sankey BROS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BROS — Dutch Bros Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $43.87 (+2.33% 1D, market capitalization $7.49B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 20.7%, gross margin of 25.9%, operating margin of 9.8%, and free cash flow yield of 0.71%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.00, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.29x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Restaurants industry..7B. — for product details, customer segments, or specific revenue mechanics beyond the financial figures reported below.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) reported $1.64B in annual revenue (up from $1.28B in FY2024, +27.9% YoY) and $79.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($965.8M revenue, $1.7M net income) through FY2025, BROS scaled operating cash flow to $295.5M and free cash flow to $54.4M, backed by $3.01B in total assets against $196.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Strong cash generator (26% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $36.51 – $74.02 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 96.2x trailing P/E and 20.8x EV/EBITDA against 9.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector-level context is limited to Consumer Discretionary and Restaurants classification.

  • Key Question #1: Can BROS sustain or expand its 9.8% operating margin and 20.7% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.64B and free cash flow of $54.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $196.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BROS's 80.8x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BROS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BROS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BROS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $43.87?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BROS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BROS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $50.16 (+17.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $965.8M in FY 2023 to $1.64B in FY 2025 while debt fell from $988.7M to $196.3M, backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 8

The street is overcomplicating Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS). Revenue grew from $965.8M in FY 2023 to $1.64B in FY 2025 while debt fell from $988.7M to $196.3M, backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and ROIC of 20.7%.. With an RQD score of 57/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 16/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $46.30.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 96.2x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Restaurants. If gross margin (25.9%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $33.01 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $42.87

At a trailing P/E of 96.2 and FCF yield of 0.71%, the stock prices in substantial growth, and FCF fell to $54.4M in FY 2025 from $96.5M

I respect the product at Dutch Bros Inc., but the stock at $42.87 is a different story. At a trailing P/E of 96.2 and FCF yield of 0.71%, the stock prices in substantial growth, and FCF fell to $54.4M in FY 2025 from $96.5M in FY 2023.. FCF yield is 0.71% and RQD sits at 57/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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