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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TXRH
ARMK (64) YUMC (71) EAT (84) BROS (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$182.52 -0.24% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $182.88

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 77/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 28% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 77/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.3% hit rate) →
ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $12.01B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TXRH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TXRH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 77/100 at a spot price of $182.52 (-0.24% 1D, market cap $12.01B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TXRH ranks #45 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TXRH compare to ARMK and YUMC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), TXRH carries a Roarable B+ (77/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.3%. By comparison, ARMK (Aramark) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 45.2x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $14.77B) and YUMC (Yum China Holdings Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $15.48B). Among the 5-stock peer group, YUMC leads on earnings multiple (16.7x) while EAT leads on capital efficiency (53.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXRH?
▼

Per TXRH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-30, CIK 0001289460), Texas Roadhouse Inc. generated $5.88B in revenue (+9.4% YoY), $405.6M in net income, and $342.1M in free cash flow against $3.55B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $182.89 (+0.20%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 5.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 77/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.3% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510077
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B+
Cash (17)Whales (13)SEC (18)Macro (13)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.6% Base Target
$234 Bull$198 Base$150 Bear
📬 FREE TXRH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TXRH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (77/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TXRH SCORES 77/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.8% FCF Margin ($342.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (65.7) create a -7 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
69
Grade B-$162.18+4.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
72
Grade B$169.21-1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
74
Grade B+$166.71+9.5% Next Q
Current
77
Grade B+$182.52+7.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (69) → B+ (77)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TXRH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 77/100 (B+) score, TXRH faces multiple-compression risk if 29.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($173.32) or 200D SMA ($178.71) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($198.13) toward Bear Floor ($149.67).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TXRH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TXRH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 77%NO 23%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
65.730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
6.00>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE46% OF RANGE
L: $154$182.52H: $216
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A-RQD 17 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B+RQD 31 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on TXRH

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (85)

28.3% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.85% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (90)

Altman-Z 6.00 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (70)

29/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TXRH
  • ✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TXRH Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TXRH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.09%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $174.8H $183.0L $174.8C $182.5VOL 1.79M
RES: $244.1SUP: $144.3SMA50: $173.3SMA200: $178.7
$220.7$202.6$184.4$166.3$148.2RES $244.1SUP $144.3$182.52026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TXRH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TXRH Butterfly Map → + Track TXRH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
22.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TXRH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TXRH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TXRH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TXRH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #45 of 1011 ⚔️ ARMK vs TXRH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TXRH vs. ARMK, YUMC, EAT, BROS)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) ranks #45 by composite RQD confidence (77/100, grade B+) and #149 by equity capitalization ($12.01B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, YUMC leads on earnings valuation at 16.7x trailing P/E, while EAT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 53.3% ROIC and — gross margin. EAT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 84/100 (A-) compared with TXRH at 77/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TXRH ACTIVE
Texas Roadhouse Inc.
B+ 77/100 29.6x — 28.3% -0.24% $12.01B Benchmark Subject
ARMK
Aramark
C 64/100 45.2x — 11.4% -3.68% $14.77B /armk-vs-txrh →
YUMC
Yum China Holdings Inc.
B- 71/100 16.7x — 14.9% +1.28% $15.48B /yumc-vs-txrh →
EAT
Brinker International Inc.
A- 84/100 18.8x — 53.3% -3.51% $9.14B /eat-vs-txrh →
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc.
C- 59/100 96.2x 25.9% 20.7% -2.52% $7.68B /bros-vs-txrh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-30 • CIK 0001289460

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-30), Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) reported GAAP revenue of $5.88B (+9.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.37B , and +26.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $405.6M, operating cash flow of $730.1M, and free cash flow of $342.1M (-14.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TXRH closed FY2025 with $3.55B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.00, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-30 $5.88B $405.6M $730.1M $342.1M $3.55B $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $5.37B $433.6M $753.6M $399.3M $3.19B $817.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-26 $4.63B $304.9M $565.0M $356.6M $6.61B $1.55B

3. TXRH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TXRH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 77/100 at a spot price of $182.52 (-0.24% 1D, market cap $12.01B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TXRH ranks #45 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TXRH compare to ARMK and YUMC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), TXRH carries a Roarable B+ (77/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.3%. By comparison, ARMK (Aramark) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 45.2x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $14.77B) and YUMC (Yum China Holdings Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $15.48B). Among the 5-stock peer group, YUMC leads on earnings multiple (16.7x) while EAT leads on capital efficiency (53.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXRH?

Per TXRH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-30, CIK 0001289460), Texas Roadhouse Inc. generated $5.88B in revenue (+9.4% YoY), $405.6M in net income, and $342.1M in free cash flow against $3.55B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TXRH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TXRH last traded at $182.52 (-0.24% on volume of 809,090 shares), positioning the stock +5.31% above its 50-day simple moving average ($173.32) and +2.13% above its 200-day simple moving average ($178.71). Across its 52-week range of $153.83 to $216.30, TXRH sits at the 45.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($170.11 to $194.93).

TXRH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell TXRH stock right now?

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy — BUY) with 77/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 28% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

What is TXRH's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TXRH's 12-month base price target is $198.13 (range $149.67 to $233.79), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: TXRH RQD Cockpit TXRH 12M Forecast TXRH Earnings & Move TXRH Dividends & DRIP TXRH Insiders & 13F TXRH Whale Options TXRH Profit Sankey TXRH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 77/100 (B+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TXRH — Texas Roadhouse Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:15:38Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TXRH scores 77 out of 100, graded B+, with the verdict "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 (ROIC 28.3%; FCF yield 2.85%), Whale 13F Flow at 13/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 16/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 13/20 (Beta 1.14; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18/20 (Altman Z 6; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the strongest pillar is the forensic balance sheet, which indicates low financial-distress risk per the reported Altman Z, Piotroski, and leverage figures. The cash engine pillar also scores well on return on invested capital, though the 2.85% FCF yield means the market is pricing the stock at a premium to current free cash flow. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the P/E (TTM) of 29.6 versus a Forward P/E of 27.5, implying expected earnings growth is already reflected in the price. Institutional and macro pillars score lower (13/20 each), suggesting less confirmation from 13F positioning and a beta above 1.0, meaning the stock has historically amplified market moves per the source. Upside drivers in the data are margin resilience and cash generation; downside sensitivities are a premium multiple and sector-level macro exposure. This is an analytical summary, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
182.96$12.01B29.627.514.86.181.5%1.14$153.83 - $216.328.3%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$5878.1M$474.7M$405.6MN/A$342.1M$134.7M$0.0M
FY 2024$5373.3M$516.5M$433.6MN/A$399.3M$245.2M$817.7M
FY 2023$4631.7M$354.0M$304.9MN/A$356.6MN/A$1545.6M

Per the market data, operating margin is 8.1%, net margin is 6.9%, and gross margin is 0%. ROIC is 28.3%. Per the RQD forensic pillar, Altman Z is 6 and Piotroski F is 7/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Reported debt declines from $1545.6M in FY 2023 to $0.0M in FY 2025, while cash falls from $245.2M to $134.7M over the same period. Net income declined from $433.6M in FY 2024 to $405.6M in FY 2025.

Open Questions

  • What drove the sales slowdown cited by Mizuho, and how large is it relative to FY 2025 revenue of $5878.1M?
  • What were the Q2 earnings results that the news wire coverage references?
  • Why did reported debt fall to $0.0M in FY 2025 and what is the capital allocation behind the cash decline?
  • What are the consensus rating and price targets, given the analyst data is absent?
  • Which institutional holders and insider trades underpin the Whale and Insider pillar scores, given the holders data is absent?

TXRH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TXRH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TXRH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $182.52?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TXRH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TXRH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $215.89 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TXRH (B+ • RQD 77/100) a Buy at $182.96?

Welcome to the TXRH (Texas Roadhouse Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 77/100 (Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Restaurants. Bulls point to capital efficiency (28.3% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $150.03 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $182.96

Pump the brakes on TXRH — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TXRH, but look at what you are paying: 29.6x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Texas Roadhouse Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $221.38 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $182.96

TXRH cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TXRH, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Restaurants and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $182.96 (52-wk range $153.83 - $216.30), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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