Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$172.41 +0.78% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $172.32

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $28.91B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ATO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Atmos Energy Corporation (NYSE: ATO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $172.41 (+0.78% 1D, market cap $28.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, ATO ranks #78 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ATO compare to VG and LNG in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), ATO carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.2%. By comparison, VG (Venture Global Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 9.2x, ROIC 10.8%, cap $36.93B) and LNG (Cheniere Energy Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 9.7x, ROIC 24.5%, cap $65.87B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VG leads on earnings multiple (9.2x) while LNG leads on capital efficiency (24.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ATO?
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Per ATO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000731802), Atmos Energy Corporation generated $4.70B in revenue (+12.9% YoY), $1.20B in net income, and $1.84B in free cash flow against $29.80B in total assets and $6.97B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $172.32 (-0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 39.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C-
Cash (11)Whales (12)SEC (12)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$208 Bull$176 Base$138 Bear
📬 FREE ATO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ATO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ATO SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (19% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.2% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 33.2% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$163.47+2.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$167.13+2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$171.37+0.6% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$172.41+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ATO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, ATO faces multiple-compression risk if 24.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($164.30) or 200D SMA ($174.30) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($176.29) toward Bear Floor ($137.51).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ATO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ATO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
61.430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
1.79>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
9 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE47% OF RANGE
L: $155$172.41H: $193
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ATO

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (55)

6.2% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 6.36% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 1.79 and Piotroski 9/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (67)

28/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ATO
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ATO Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ATO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.18%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $169.5H $172.4L $169.5C $172.4VOL 835.0K
RES: $174.6SUP: $151.5SMA50: $164.3SMA200: $174.3
$192.7$182.4$172.1$161.8$151.5RES $174.6SUP $151.5$172.42026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ATO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
17.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ATO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ATO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ATO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ATO)

Energy Rank #78 of 211 ⚔️ VG vs ATO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (ATO vs. VG, LNG, NFG, UGP)

Industry: Oil/Gas Transmission (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) ranks #78 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #41 by equity capitalization ($28.91B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VG leads on earnings valuation at 9.2x trailing P/E, while LNG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.5% ROIC and — gross margin. LNG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with ATO at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ATO ACTIVE
Atmos Energy Corporation
C 63/100 24.1x — 6.2% +0.78% $28.91B Benchmark Subject
VG
Venture Global Inc.
D+ 54/100 9.2x — 10.8% +0.14% $36.93B /vg-vs-ato →
LNG
Cheniere Energy Inc.
B- 70/100 9.7x — 24.5% +3.57% $65.87B /lng-vs-ato →
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
D+ 58/100 14.5x 90.4% 9.7% +0.24% $7.54B /nfg-vs-ato →
UGP
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share)
D+ 53/100 — — — -2.68% $6.64B /ugp-vs-ato →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0000731802

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) reported GAAP revenue of $4.70B (+12.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.17B , and +10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.20B, operating cash flow of $2.05B, and free cash flow of $1.84B (+18.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ATO closed FY2025 with $29.80B in total assets against $6.97B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.79, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $4.70B $1.20B $2.05B $1.84B $29.80B $6.97B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $4.17B $1.04B $1.73B $1.55B $26.50B $6.20B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $4.28B $885.9M $3.46B $3.27B $15.90B $3.72B

3. ATO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ATO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Atmos Energy Corporation (NYSE: ATO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $172.41 (+0.78% 1D, market cap $28.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, ATO ranks #78 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ATO compare to VG and LNG in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), ATO carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.2%. By comparison, VG (Venture Global Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 9.2x, ROIC 10.8%, cap $36.93B) and LNG (Cheniere Energy Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 9.7x, ROIC 24.5%, cap $65.87B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VG leads on earnings multiple (9.2x) while LNG leads on capital efficiency (24.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ATO?

Per ATO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000731802), Atmos Energy Corporation generated $4.70B in revenue (+12.9% YoY), $1.20B in net income, and $1.84B in free cash flow against $29.80B in total assets and $6.97B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ATO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ATO last traded at $172.41 (+0.78% on volume of 1,428,054 shares), positioning the stock +4.94% above its 50-day simple moving average ($164.30) and -1.08% below its 200-day simple moving average ($174.30). Across its 52-week range of $154.72 to $192.51, ATO sits at the 46.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.2% ($166.89 to $177.93).

ATO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ATO stock right now?

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 24x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is ATO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ATO's 12-month base price target is $176.29 (range $137.51 to $208.02), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ATO — Atmos Energy Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:12:27Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ATO scores 63 out of 100, graded C, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." Across the five pillars:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11 / 20): Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 6.2% and an FCF yield of 6.36%. These are modest returns on capital and a cash yield that is adequate rather than exceptional, which limits the upside case from cash generation alone.
  • Whale 13F Flow (12 / 20): Per the RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning score mid-range. The source does not provide 13F detail, so the specific direction of institutional flow cannot be confirmed here.
  • Insider Conviction (16 / 20): The highest pillar, per the RQD rating, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is the strongest supportive signal in the rating, though the individual transactions are only partly visible in the news items.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12 / 20): Per the RQD rating, beta of 1.12 and sector sensitivity are the basis. A beta above 1.0 means the stock is expected to move somewhat more than the market, which cuts both ways in a volatile regime.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (12 / 20): Per the RQD rating, Altman Z of 1.79, Piotroski F of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.42. The perfect Piotroski score is a positive signal on financial quality, while the Altman Z reading is a reminder that distress-model signals should be interpreted in context.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating suggests a balanced setup: strong insider-flow and financial-quality signals are offset by moderate cash returns, mid-range institutional flow, and a valuation that the market data shows at 24.1x trailing and 20.2x forward earnings, with EV/EBITDA of 19.9. Upside depends largely on whether earnings growth supports the forward multiple; downside is tied to the stock's beta and sector sensitivity. This is an analytical summary, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$171.07$28.91B24.120.219.97.091.92%1.12$154.72 - $192.516.2%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$4702.8M$1560.0M$1198.8MN/A$1837.8M$367.0M$6972.8M
FY 2024$4165.2M$1355.4M$1042.9MN/A$1546.3M$584.5M$6200.3M
FY 2023$4275.4M$1067.1M$885.9MN/A$3267.4MN/A$3720.6M

Per the market data, operating margin is 33.2%, net margin is 25.5%, and gross margin is 0%. ROIC is 6.2%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 1.79 and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.42. Reported debt rose from $3720.6M in FY 2023 to $6972.8M in FY 2025 while cash declined from $584.5M to $367.0M across the two most recent periods, which the source data presents without further explanation.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Bond sale (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A headline states the Atmos Energy bond sale puts valuation back in focus. The article body is not provided.
  • Fiscal 2026 year-end earnings call (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): Per the news wire, the company will host its fiscal 2026 year-end earnings conference call on November 5, 2026.
  • Executive retirement-plan holding (RISK WATCH, RED): A headline reports a retirement plan holds 2,600 shares for executive Jeffery D. Martinez. This item carries a RED light and RISK WATCH label in the source.
  • Analyst predictions (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A Simply Wall St item covers stock forecasts and analyst predictions. The content is not provided.
  • Earnings preview (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A Yahoo Finance item previews what to expect from earnings. The content is not provided.
  • Director share activity (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A headline reports that director Garza acquired 77 shares and now holds 334 shares directly.

The Butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the terms and purpose of the bond sale referenced in the news wire, and how do they bear on the debt increase from $6200.3M to $6972.8M?
  • What were the fiscal 2026 year-end results and guidance expected on November 5, 2026?
  • Why did cash decline from $584.5M to $367.0M while free cash flow was positive in both years?
  • What is the source of the 0% gross margin figure, and how does it relate to the 33.2% operating margin?
  • Which 13F institutions and insider transactions drive the Whale and Insider pillar scores?

ATO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ATO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ATO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $172.41?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ATO 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ATO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $184.76 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ATO (C • RQD 63/100) a Buy at $171.07?

Welcome to the ATO (Atmos Energy Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 63/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Oil/Gas Transmission. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $140.28 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $171.07

Pump the brakes on ATO — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ATO, but look at what you are paying: 24.1x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Atmos Energy Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $198.44 (+16.0%)
Spot @ $171.07

ATO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ATO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Oil/Gas Transmission and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $171.07 (52-wk range $154.72 - $192.51), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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