Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$7.86 -0.51% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.84

Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 23/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $516.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARVN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Arvinas Inc. (NASDAQ: ARVN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 23/100 at a spot price of $7.86 (-0.51% 1D, market cap $516.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ARVN ranks #962 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARVN compare to DMAC and INDP in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ARVN carries a Roarable E (23/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -32.1%. By comparison, DMAC (DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $513.4M) and INDP (Indaptus Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $513.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARVN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ARVN leads on capital efficiency (-32.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARVN?
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Per ARVN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001655759), Arvinas Inc. generated $262.6M in revenue (-0.3% YoY), -$81.0M in net income, and -$275.7M in free cash flow against $717.9M in total assets and $400.0K in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.84 (-0.28%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (23/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510023
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (7)SEC (5)Macro (8)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-15.8% Base Target
$15 Bull$7 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE ARVN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARVN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (23/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ARVN SCORES 23/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (35% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 14% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+7/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
15
Grade E$7.45-2.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
18
Grade E$7.26+0.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
20
Grade E$7.31+7.5% Next Q
Current
23
Grade E$7.86-11.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (15) → E (23)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARVN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARVN currently carries a cautious 23/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.07) and Max Pain ($8.25) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.24.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARVN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ARVN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ARVN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $7.86: 1272.3 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $5.16
$6,565
$-3,435 (-34.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $6.62
$8,422
$-1,578 (-15.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $15.24
$19,389
+$9,389 (+93.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARVN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ARVN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ARVN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -27.09%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $7.60H $7.90L $7.60C $7.86VOL 863.8K
RES: $10.89SUP: $6.50SMA50: $8.07SMA200: $9.66
$11.84$10.46$9.08$7.69$6.31RES $10.89SUP $6.50$7.862026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARVN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARVN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARVN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARVN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARVN)

Health Care Rank #962 of 1016 ⚔️ DMAC vs ARVN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ARVN vs. DMAC, INDP, CBIO, OCS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) ranks #962 by composite RQD confidence (23/100, grade E) and #443 by equity capitalization ($516.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARVN leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ARVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -32.1% ROIC and — gross margin. OCS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with ARVN at 23/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ARVN ACTIVE
Arvinas Inc.
E 23/100 — — -32.1% -0.51% $516.6M Benchmark Subject
DMAC
DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.
D 44/100 — — -35.0% -2.84% $513.4M /dmac-vs-arvn →
INDP
Indaptus Therapeutics Inc.
D 44/100 — — -35.0% -7.48% $513.0M /indp-vs-arvn →
CBIO
Crescent Biopharma Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -4.19% $522.6M /cbio-vs-arvn →
OCS
Oculis Holding AG
D 47/100 — — — +0.24% $507.5M /ocs-vs-arvn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001655759

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) reported GAAP revenue of $262.6M (-0.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $263.4M , and +234.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$81.0M, operating cash flow of -$273.8M, and free cash flow of -$275.7M (-5.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARVN closed FY2025 with $717.9M in total assets against $400.0K in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $262.6M -$81.0M -$273.8M -$275.7M $717.9M $400.0K
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $263.4M -$199.0M -$259.3M -$261.1M $1.09B $600.0K
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $78.5M -$367.0M -$347.8M -$347.8M — —

3. ARVN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARVN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Arvinas Inc. (NASDAQ: ARVN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 23/100 at a spot price of $7.86 (-0.51% 1D, market cap $516.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ARVN ranks #962 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARVN compare to DMAC and INDP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ARVN carries a Roarable E (23/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -32.1%. By comparison, DMAC (DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $513.4M) and INDP (Indaptus Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $513.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARVN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ARVN leads on capital efficiency (-32.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARVN?

Per ARVN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001655759), Arvinas Inc. generated $262.6M in revenue (-0.3% YoY), -$81.0M in net income, and -$275.7M in free cash flow against $717.9M in total assets and $400.0K in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARVN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARVN last traded at $7.86 (-0.51% on volume of 1,125,608 shares), positioning the stock -2.60% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.07) and -18.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.66). Across its 52-week range of $6.74 to $14.51, ARVN sits at the 14.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.0% ($7.07 to $8.65).

ARVN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ARVN's 12-month stock price target?

Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $6.62 (-15.8% from $7.86), with a bull-case target of $15.24 and a bear-case floor of $5.16.

Is ARVN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ARVN E (Strong Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 23/100.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 23/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ARVN — Arvinas Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:35:34Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ARVN scores 23 out of 100, grade E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 0 / 20 (ROIC -32.1%; FCF yield 0%); Whale 13F Flow 7 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 3 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 8 / 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 5 / 20 (Altman Z 0.2; Piotroski F 3/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The cash-generation pillar is empty, meaning the rating records no positive return on capital or free-cash yield. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on pillars that are only partially filled, principally institutional flow and beta-driven sector sensitivity, while the forensic and cash pillars point to elevated risk. Valuation cannot be anchored on earnings multiples because the source data does not provide them. The rating is a relative, educational signal and not a recommendation.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$262.6M$-118.5M$-81.0MN/A$-275.7M$142.9M$0.4M
FY 2024$263.4M$-250.2M$-199.0MN/A$-261.1M$100.5M$0.6M
FY 2023$78.5M$-401.5M$-367.0MN/A$-347.8MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, the company reported operating losses in each listed period, with operating margin at -45.1% and net margin at -30.8% per the market data. Gross margin is recorded as 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -32.1%, and the Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9. Debt/Equity is 0.5 per the rating, and debt in the financial table declined from $0.6M to $0.4M across FY 2024 to FY 2025, while reported cash rose from $100.5M to $142.9M.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The most prominent catalyst in the news wire is a report that the stock rose 10% after an FDA approval for a breast cancer drug, described as arriving a month ahead of schedule. Other items are general market-coverage pieces: an investor-interest article, a TradingView estimates page, a MarketBeat piece referencing an average price target of $14.55, a Yahoo Finance preview of Q3 2026 earnings, and a MarketBeat brokerage-commentary piece. Impact labels are marked as catalyst for the FDA item and market wire for the others. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the FDA-approved product's commercial revenue and reimbursement terms, given that FY 2025 revenue was $262.6M but the source does not attribute it?
  • What is the company's cash runway, given FY 2025 free cash flow of $-275.7M against reported cash of $142.9M?
  • What are the P/E, EPS, and EV/EBITDA values, which the source data does not provide?
  • Who are the institutional holders and insiders, and what are their positions?
  • What is the consensus analyst rating and the basis for the $14.55 average price target referenced in the news wire?

ARVN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arvinas Inc. (ARVN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARVN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARVN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $7.86?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARVN 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ARVN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.95 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ARVN (E • RQD 23/100) a Buy at $7.90?

Welcome to the ARVN (Arvinas Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 23/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.24 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $7.90

Pump the brakes on ARVN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ARVN, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Arvinas Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $9.80 (+24.1%)
Spot @ $7.90

ARVN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ARVN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $7.90 (52-wk range $6.74 - $14.51), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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