MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 22h ago
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Stock ForecastsYahoo Finance report covering Antero Resources Corporation (AR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why AR Stock surged +2.14% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$42.08 +2.14% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.34
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B • BUY
Cap $12.92B
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Is AR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE: AR) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $42.08 (+2.14% 1D, market cap $12.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, AR ranks #12 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does AR compare to RRC and SSL in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), AR carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.5%. By comparison, RRC (Range Resources Corporation) holds a A- grade (85/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $12.77B) and SSL (Sasol Ltd.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while SM leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AR?
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Per AR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001433270), Antero Resources Corporation generated $5.28B in revenue (+22.0% YoY), $675.0M in net income, and $1.39B in free cash flow against $13.25B in total assets and $1.40B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.35 (+0.63%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 26.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AR SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (23% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.9% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+17/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 75% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 67.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 9 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B-$36.63+5.1% Next Q
67
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B$38.51+9.3% Next Q
70
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B$42.11-0.1% Next Q
72
CurrentGrade B$42.08+7.4% Hist 90D α
75
Trajectory: B- (67) → B (75)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AR Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 75/100 (B) score, AR faces multiple-compression risk if 18.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.77) or 200D SMA ($36.95) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($45.30) toward Bear Floor ($34.51).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AR Stock surged +2.14% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) surged +2.14% to $42.08, trading at 75% of its 52-week range ($31.08 – $45.75). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 75% of its 52-week range ($31.08 – $45.75) with RSI-14 at 67.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.9% around $42.08 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $1.4B annual free cash flow.
Live AR Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRESeeking Alpha • 1d ago
Antero Resources: Another Hedging Win In The Latest Quarter (NYSE:AR)Seeking Alpha report covering Antero Resources Corporation (AR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREStockInvest.us • 1d ago
Antero Resources Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy AR?StockInvest.us report covering Antero Resources Corporation (AR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIRETradingView • 1d ago
Expand Energy Stock Declines 17% YTD: How Should Investors Play It?TradingView report covering Antero Resources Corporation (AR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 1d ago
Is Antero Resources (AR) Stock Undervalued Right Now?Yahoo Finance report covering Antero Resources Corporation (AR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIRETradingView • 1d ago
These are the 10 best-performing energy stocks in October 2026TradingView report covering Antero Resources Corporation (AR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIRESeeking Alpha • 1d ago
Antero Resources Corporation 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:AR) 2026-10-29Seeking Alpha report covering Antero Resources Corporation (AR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CATALYSTYahoo • 21h ago
Eni Begins Maha Gas Production, Boosting Indonesia's Offshore OutputE starts gas production at Indonesia's Maha field, adding 250 MMSCFD of capacity and strengthening its Southeast Asian growth prospects.
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Antero Midstream: Following Antero Resources In Slow GrowthAntero Midstreamâs $377M settlement, lower debt, and growth outlook could boost volumes, fees, and future midstream expansion. Discover more on AM here.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 3d ago
Antero Resources (AR) Stock Climbs On Q3 Earnings And Cash Cost GainsAntero Resources just dropped Q3 2026 numbers, and the share price is quietly edging up about 2% to around $42, while the real story is far louder. Investors are cheering a headline that centers on profitability, with ba
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AR Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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AR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.45%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $41.20H $42.08L $41.20C $42.08VOL 5.48M
RES: $43.08SUP: $33.34SMA50: $37.77SMA200: $36.95
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
12.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +22.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AR today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AR)
Energy Rank #12 of 211
⚔️ RRC vs AR Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (AR vs. RRC, SSL, VNOM, SM)
Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Antero Resources Corporation (AR) ranks #12 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #53 by equity capitalization ($12.92B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SM leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while SM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. RRC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 85/100 (A-) compared with AR at 75/100 (B).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR
ACTIVE
Antero Resources Corporation | B | 75/100 | 18.7x | — | 9.5% | +2.14% | $12.92B | Benchmark Subject |
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | A- | 85/100 | 19.1x | 93.8% | 11.5% | +1.37% | $12.77B | /rrc-vs-ar → |
| SSL Sasol Ltd. | B | 72/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +1.24% | $11.15B | /ssl-vs-ar → |
| VNOM Viper Energy Inc. | C | 64/100 | — | — | -1.7% | +1.82% | $17.13B | /vnom-vs-ar → |
| SM SM Energy Company | A- | 82/100 | 14.5x | — | 12.5% | +2.02% | $9.60B | /sm-vs-ar → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001433270 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Antero Resources Corporation (AR) reported GAAP revenue of $5.28B (+22.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.33B , and +12.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $675.0M, operating cash flow of $1.63B, and free cash flow of $1.39B (+112.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, AR closed FY2025 with $13.25B in total assets against $1.40B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.11, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $5.28B | $675.0M | $1.63B | $1.39B | $13.25B | $1.40B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $4.33B | $94.0M | $849.3M | $654.6M | $13.01B | $1.49B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $4.68B | $297.0M | $994.7M | $784.0M | $6.96B | $1.63B |
3. AR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE: AR) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $42.08 (+2.14% 1D, market cap $12.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, AR ranks #12 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AR compare to RRC and SSL in the Energy sector?
Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), AR carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.5%. By comparison, RRC (Range Resources Corporation) holds a A- grade (85/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $12.77B) and SSL (Sasol Ltd.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while SM leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AR?
Per AR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001433270), Antero Resources Corporation generated $5.28B in revenue (+22.0% YoY), $675.0M in net income, and $1.39B in free cash flow against $13.25B in total assets and $1.40B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AR last traded at $42.08 (+2.14% on volume of 5,483,181 shares), positioning the stock +11.41% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.77) and +13.88% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.95). Across its 52-week range of $31.08 to $45.75, AR sits at the 75.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($39.18 to $44.98).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 75/100 (B)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
AR — Antero Resources Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 75/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $42.08 (+2.14% 1D, market capitalization $12.92B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 16.7%, and free cash flow yield of 11.01%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (17/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.09x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.11, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.19x.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Oil & Gas Production industry (Energy sector) with an equity market capitalization of $12.92B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 16.7%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.5% (free cash flow yield of 11.01%). Within the Oil & Gas Production peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Antero Resources Corporation (AR) reported $5.28B in annual revenue (up from $4.33B in FY2024, +22.0% YoY) and $675.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.68B revenue, $297.0M net income) through FY2025, AR scaled operating cash flow to $1.63B and free cash flow to $1.39B, backed by $13.25B in total assets against $1.40B in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 75/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $31.08 – $45.75 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 18.7x trailing P/E and 11.5x EV/EBITDA against 16.7% operating margins and a 1.09x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
The one sector-level observation the source supports is that the Energy sector's market sensitivity is reflected in AR's Beta of 1.09, meaning the stock has historically been modestly more volatile than the broad market per the RQD model input.
- Key Question #1: Can AR sustain or expand its 16.7% operating margin and 9.5% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.28B and free cash flow of $1.39B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.40B in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is AR's 15.7x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.09x)?
AR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Antero Resources Corporation (AR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Stock Forecasts Yahoo Finance report covering Antero Resources Corporation (AR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago
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Expand Energy Stock Declines 17% YTD: How Should Investors Play It? TradingView report covering Antero Resources Corporation (AR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
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Is Antero Resources (AR) Stock Undervalued Right Now? Yahoo Finance report covering Antero Resources Corporation (AR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
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Antero Resources Corporation 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:AR) 2026-10-29 Seeking Alpha report covering Antero Resources Corporation (AR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 21h ago
Eni Begins Maha Gas Production, Boosting Indonesia's Offshore Output E starts gas production at Indonesia's Maha field, adding 250 MMSCFD of capacity and strengthening its Southeast Asian growth prospects.
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
AR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $42.08?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $51.76 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate Strong cash-flow yield (FCF yield 11.01%), a high macro-regime fit score, and debt reduced from $1.63B to $1.40B over three years.
The street is overcomplicating Antero Resources Corporation (AR). Strong cash-flow yield (FCF yield 11.01%), a high macro-regime fit score, and debt reduced from $1.63B to $1.40B over three years.. With an RQD score of 75/100 (B) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 11/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $45.45.
ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL
@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 75/100 quality, though with 1.09 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $42.08 and keeping dry powder in case we test $39.13.
SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $34.93 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $42.08 Balance-sheet pillar scores only 11/20 and cash, analyst, and ownership data are missing, leaving the rating's flow signals unverifiabl
Balance-sheet pillar scores only 11/20 and cash, analyst, and ownership data are missing, leaving the rating's flow signals unverifiable.. Look at the math on AR: paying 18.7x trailing P/E for 9.5% ROIC and 16.7% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Oil & Gas Production demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $37.03 before getting long.