Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$159.19 -1.62% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $158.42

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $2.05B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (NYSE: AMR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $159.19 (-1.62% 1D, market cap $2.05B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, AMR ranks #167 in composite RQD confidence.

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πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AMR compare to BTU and NRP in the Energy sector?
β–Ό

Within the Energy sector (Coal Mining), AMR carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -4.1%. By comparison, BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) holds a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $2.71B) and NRP (Natural Resource Partners LP) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 18.4%, cap $1.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCC leads on earnings multiple (79.3x) while NRP leads on capital efficiency (18.4% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMR?
β–Ό

Per AMR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001704715), Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. generated $2.12B in revenue (-28.0% YoY), -$61.7M in net income, and $144.9M in free cash flow against $2.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $158.43 (-0.48%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) β€’ 6.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D-
025507510043
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- Β· Rk D
Cash (12)Whales (4)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target
$267 Bull$148 Base$116 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE AMR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±10.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY AMR SCORES 43/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.8% FCF Margin ($144.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.18 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 4/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$185.62-13.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$160.09-0.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
46
Grade D$159.03+0.1% Next Q
Current
43
Grade D-$159.19-6.7% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C- (51) β†’ D- (43)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While AMR currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($186.60) and Max Pain ($167.15) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $266.51.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMRβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAMR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±10.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (AMR)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for AMR.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMR)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of AMR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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AMR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.89%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $163.3H $163.3L $159.2C $159.2VOL 234.3K
RES: $256.0SUP: $155.0SMA50: $186.6SMA200: $184.6
$250.1$218.6$187.0$155.4$123.8RES $256.0SUP $155.0$159.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -28.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMR today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMR)

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (AMR vs. BTU, NRP, CNR, HCC)

Industry: Coal Mining (10 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) ranks #167 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #119 by equity capitalization ($2.05B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HCC leads on earnings valuation at 79.3x trailing P/E, while NRP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.4% ROIC and β€” gross margin. NRP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with AMR at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AMR ACTIVE
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.
D- 43/100 β€” β€” -4.1% -1.62% $2.05B Benchmark Subject
BTU
Peabody Energy Corporation
E 24/100 β€” β€” -2.1% -0.22% $2.71B /btu-vs-amr β†’
NRP
Natural Resource Partners LP
B- 70/100 β€” β€” 18.4% -0.75% $1.54B /nrp-vs-amr β†’
CNR
Core Natural Resources Inc.
D- 37/100 β€” β€” -4.0% -0.25% $4.33B /cnr-vs-amr β†’
HCC
Warrior Met Coal Inc.
D+ 56/100 79.3x 22.4% 1.8% +0.41% $4.52B /hcc-vs-amr β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001704715

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) reported GAAP revenue of $2.12B (-28.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.95B , and -38.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$61.7M, operating cash flow of $144.9M, and free cash flow of $144.9M (-75.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMR closed FY2025 with $2.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.18, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.12B -$61.7M $144.9M $144.9M $2.28B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.95B $187.6M $579.9M $579.9M $2.44B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.46B $722.0M $851.2M $851.2M β€” β€”

3. AMR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (NYSE: AMR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $159.19 (-1.62% 1D, market cap $2.05B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, AMR ranks #167 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AMR compare to BTU and NRP in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Coal Mining), AMR carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -4.1%. By comparison, BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) holds a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $2.71B) and NRP (Natural Resource Partners LP) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 18.4%, cap $1.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCC leads on earnings multiple (79.3x) while NRP leads on capital efficiency (18.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMR?

Per AMR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001704715), Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. generated $2.12B in revenue (-28.0% YoY), -$61.7M in net income, and $144.9M in free cash flow against $2.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AMR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMR last traded at $159.19 (-1.62% on volume of 180,479 shares), positioning the stock -14.69% below its 50-day simple moving average ($186.60) and -13.76% below its 200-day simple moving average ($184.58). Across its 52-week range of $133.64 to $253.82, AMR sits at the 21.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±10.5% ($142.48 to $175.90).

AMR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is AMR's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for AMR.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 43/100 (D-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AMR β€” Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:26:51Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AMR scores 43 out of 100, grading D- with the verdict "Roarable Sell β€” Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 (ROIC -4.1%; FCF yield 7.06%); Whale 13F Flow at 4/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 9/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 8/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20 (Altman Z 4.18; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The weakest pillar is Whale 13F Flow, and the strongest relative pillar is the Fundamental Cash Engine, which pairs negative ROIC with a positive FCF yield. For a prospective investor, the rating points to a mixed picture: the cash-flow yield and balance-sheet metrics provide some support, but negative returns on capital, weak institutional flow, and a sub-50 composite score weigh against the stock today. Valuation tradeoffs are difficult to assess because forward and trailing earnings multiples are not available in the source data.

Business

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector and Coal Mining industry, per the company profile. The profile does not describe the company's products, customers, or revenue model beyond its sector classification. Per the SEC financials, the company reported revenue of $2122.6M for FY 2025, which indicates a substantial operating business. Further detail on product mix, end markets, and how the company generates income is not available in source data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$2122.6M$-61.4M$-61.7MN/A$144.9M$366.0MN/A
FY 2024$2946.6M$227.9M$187.6MN/A$579.9M$481.6MN/A
FY 2023$3456.6M$863.1M$722.0MN/A$851.2MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined in each reported period, from $3456.6M in FY 2023 to $2122.6M in FY 2025, and the company moved from positive operating and net income to losses in FY 2025. Per the market data, the gross margin is 0%, the operating margin is -2.9%, the net margin is -2.9%, and ROIC is -4.1%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 4.18, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash declined from $481.6M in FY 2024 to $366.0M in FY 2025, and FCF also declined over the same period.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the most notable item is a RISK WATCH headline reporting that the company expects a Q3 net loss of $0.73 a share, compared with a FactSet estimate of a $0.51 loss. The other items are marked MARKET WIRE and reference a stock that is trading above fair value after a 209% five-year run, a sharp pullback in the share price, and analyst-style forecasts. The news items are largely aggregator coverage without specific operational detail. The Butterfly supply-chain graph shows no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals for this issuer.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals recorded. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data. Investors should note that this absence reflects the limits of the available data rather than confirmation that no such dependencies exist.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's trailing and forward earnings multiples, given that P/E, EPS, and EV/EBITDA are all unavailable?
  • What is the debt balance behind the reported Debt/Equity of 0.5, since debt is not reported in the financial periods?
  • What drove the swing from FY 2024 net income of $187.6M to a FY 2025 net loss of $-61.7M?
  • How does the FY 2025 cash balance of $366.0M compare with the company's debt obligations and near-term cash needs?
  • Who are the company's institutional and insider holders, given that holder and analyst data are unavailable?

AMR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to AMR Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AMR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $159.19?

πŸ‚ 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AMR 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AMR:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $142.39 (-12.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AMR (D- β€’ RQD 43/100) a Buy at $161.81?

Welcome to the AMR (Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 43/100 (Roarable Sell β€” Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Coal Mining. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $121.36 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $161.81

Pump the brakes on AMR β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AMR, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $207.12 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $161.81

AMR cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AMR, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Coal Mining and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $161.81 (52-wk range $133.64 - $253.82), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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