Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±13.1% Move

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AMD scores 67 / 100, grade C+, verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20 (ROIC 7.8%; FCF yield 1.02%); Whale 13F Flow 14/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 9/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 14/20 (Beta 1.87; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 16/20 (Altman Z 16.12; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.05).

For a prospective investor, the rating reads as a balanced-to-cautious picture. The strongest pillar is balance-sheet strength, which the source data supports with low leverage and high bankruptcy-distance and quality scores. The weakest pillar is insider conviction, where the source shows a cluster of open-market sales rather than purchases. The cash engine and macro-fit pillars are mid-range: returns on capital and free-cash yield are modest relative to the valuation, and the high beta means the stock is sensitive to broad market swings. The verdict's "watch for breakout" language signals that the rating does not currently point to a clear directional edge. Valuation is the key tradeoff: per the market data, trailing P/E is 128.1 while forward P/E is 39.8, so the investment case depends heavily on expected earnings growth being realized.

Per the company profile, AMD operates in the Technology sector, Semiconductors & Data Center Compute industry, listed on NASDAQ. It designs EPYC data-center server microprocessors, Instinct MI-series AI GPU accelerators, Ryzen client PC processors, and Xilinx adaptive/embedded FPGAs. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, its customers include Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Oracle (OCI), and its products are fabricated by TSMC on leading-edge nodes. Revenue is generated through the sale of these chips and accelerators to cloud, hyperscale, and enterprise buyers.

Per the market data, gross margin is 53.2%, operating margin 15.7%, and net margin 15.6%, with ROIC of 7.8%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 16.12 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9. The balance sheet shows Debt/Equity of 0.05, and per the SEC financials, cash of $5086.0M is held against debt of $3226.0M in the most recent period. Quarterly revenue has risen from $9246.0M to $11536.0M across the four reported periods, while operating income has been volatile between $1270.0M and $1990.0M.

Per the news feed, the most prominent item is a RISK WATCH headline reporting that AMD stock fell after an AI revenue reset shook demand expectations. Other feed items are labeled MARKET WIRE and include a report of a new price target tied to demand reaching an all-time high, a report that the stock fell 13% in the prior week, a report on AI infrastructure cooling expansion with a question of whether the stock is fully priced, and a "red flag" commentary piece. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the confirmed-filing link from TSMC to AMD is classified as a TAILWIND, with a next catalyst identified as the AMD quarterly data-center GPU revenue guidance and the Instinct MI350 architecture ramp. The graph also records an INVERSE SUIT signal with severity 70 and a BULLISH direction, noting that the lowest-graded sell-side firm (Barclays, F-grade, 42% one-year accuracy) holds a HOLD with a $508 target while the broader consensus is more positive.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, AMD's upstream dependence is concentrated. TSMC is listed as a critical foundry supplier with a 95% exposure figure, providing 5nm/4nm/3nm chiplet wafers and CoWoS packaging. The memory supplier group (Micron / SK Hynix / Samsung) supplies HBM3e stacks for the MI325X and MI350 GPUs and carries a 32% exposure figure. Downstream, Microsoft (15%), Meta (12%), and Oracle (8%) are the disclosed customer exposures. The graph identifies NVIDIA (62%), Intel (55%), and Broadcom (30%) as competitors. The linked mechanism notes that AMD competes with NVIDIA and Broadcom for TSMC CoWoS interposer capacity and HBM3E allocations, so second-order bottlenecks sit in packaging and memory supply. A competing explanation in the graph is that CUDA ecosystem lock-in and hyperscaler in-house ASICs could limit Instinct share gains even if wafer allocations expand.

Per the analyst data, there are 33 Buy, 10 Hold, and 0 Sell ratings, including 17 Strong Buy. The consensus target mean is $591.72 and the median is $596.27, with a low of $508.43 and a high of $636.65. Per the analyst data, implied upside is 17.22% and the Street BS score is 69. Among the listed calls, UBS and Jefferies are rated A+, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Evercore ISI are rated B, and Barclays is rated F with a 42% one-year accuracy.

Per the holders data, the recent filings are all SEC Form 4 open-market sales by officers and directors. Notable entries include Lisa T. Su selling 95,000 shares at $506.80 (filed 2026-09-14, $48,146,000 total) and 15,000 shares at $480.94 (filed 2026-08-20). Forrest Eugene Norrod sold 17,261 shares at $503.05 (filed 2026-09-17) and 17,261 shares at $459.95 (filed 2026-08-26). Mark D. Papermaster sold 28,811 shares at $471.87 (filed 2026-08-21). Other sales were recorded for Jean X. Hu, Ava Hahn, and Paul Darren Grasby. No 13F or Congressional trade entries appear in the holders source.

• The source data does not provide 13F institutional holder totals, so the magnitude of the "whale" accumulation claimed in the RQD pillar cannot be verified.
• The Butterfly graph lists TSMC exposure as 95%, while the linked exposure label reads "Undisclosed %"; the basis for the percentage is not explained.
• The source does not state the reason for the insider sales, whether they were under pre-arranged trading plans, or how they compare to historical insider activity.
• The news items describe an "AI revenue reset" but the source does not provide the underlying figures or guidance that would explain it.
• The 52-week range spans $54.57 to $658.52, but the source does not explain the time distribution of that move or the drivers behind it.