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Stock Ratings / Health Care / AGL
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agilon health inc. (AGL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$86.63 +2.04% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $86.78

agilon health inc. (AGL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.43B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AGL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AGL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, agilon health inc. (NYSE: AGL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $86.63 (+2.04% 1D, market cap $1.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AGL ranks #560 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AGL compare to PGNY and SHC in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Misc Health and Biotechnology Services), AGL carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PGNY (Progyny Inc.) holds a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 37.2x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $2.24B) and SHC (Sotera Health Company) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 68.5x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $5.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DVA leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while DVA leads on capital efficiency (29.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGL?
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Per AGL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001831097), agilon health inc. generated $5.93B in revenue (-2.1% YoY), -$391.3M in net income, and -$119.0M in free cash flow against $1.27B in total assets and $15.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $86.79 (+0.18%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510036
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (5)Whales (9)SEC (7)Macro (12)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target
$140 Bull$78 Base$61 Bear
📬 FREE AGL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AGL SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (33% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 63% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.2% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
28
Grade E$85.90+6.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
31
Grade E$91.72-1.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
33
Grade E$90.65-4.4% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$86.63-8.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (28) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AGL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AGL currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($87.48) and Max Pain ($90.96) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $139.69.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AGL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
44.430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)
2.06>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
3 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE63% OF RANGE
L: $7$86.63H: $133
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 12 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AGL

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (25)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -8.25% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (35)

Altman-Z 2.06 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (40)

12/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AGL
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AGL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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AGL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +221.57%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $85.94H $86.63L $84.90C $86.63VOL 217.5K
RES: $90.61SUP: $59.34SMA50: $87.48SMA200: $65.59
$141.1$107.7$74.29$40.88$7.47RES $90.61SUP $59.34$86.632026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AGL Butterfly Map → + Track AGL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGL)

Health Care Rank #560 of 1015 ⚔️ PGNY vs AGL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AGL vs. PGNY, SHC, VMD, DVA)

Industry: Misc Health and Biotechnology Services (10 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, agilon health inc. (AGL) ranks #560 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #308 by equity capitalization ($1.43B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DVA leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while DVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.2% ROIC and — gross margin. PGNY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with AGL at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AGL ACTIVE
agilon health inc.
D- 36/100 — — -35.0% +2.04% $1.43B Benchmark Subject
PGNY
Progyny Inc.
B+ 79/100 37.2x 23.6% 16.7% +0.75% $2.24B /pgny-vs-agl →
SHC
Sotera Health Company
D 49/100 68.5x 55.5% 3.1% -2.26% $5.18B /shc-vs-agl →
VMD
Viemed Healthcare Inc.
B 72/100 24.6x 57.5% 13.0% -2.38% $368.3M /vmd-vs-agl →
DVA
DaVita Inc.
B 74/100 11.4x — 29.2% -0.94% $11.79B /dva-vs-agl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001831097 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), agilon health inc. (AGL) reported GAAP revenue of $5.93B (-2.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.06B , and +37.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$391.3M, operating cash flow of -$105.8M, and free cash flow of -$119.0M (-67.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGL closed FY2025 with $1.27B in total assets against $15.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.06, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $5.93B -$391.3M -$105.8M -$119.0M $1.27B $15.8M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $6.06B -$260.2M -$57.8M -$71.0M $1.73B $34.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.32B -$262.6M -$156.2M -$156.2M — —

3. AGL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, agilon health inc. (NYSE: AGL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $86.63 (+2.04% 1D, market cap $1.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AGL ranks #560 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AGL compare to PGNY and SHC in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Misc Health and Biotechnology Services), AGL carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PGNY (Progyny Inc.) holds a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 37.2x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $2.24B) and SHC (Sotera Health Company) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 68.5x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $5.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DVA leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while DVA leads on capital efficiency (29.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGL?

Per AGL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001831097), agilon health inc. generated $5.93B in revenue (-2.1% YoY), -$391.3M in net income, and -$119.0M in free cash flow against $1.27B in total assets and $15.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AGL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGL last traded at $86.63 (+2.04% on volume of 281,574 shares), positioning the stock -0.97% below its 50-day simple moving average ($87.48) and +32.08% above its 200-day simple moving average ($65.59). Across its 52-week range of $7.48 to $133.04, AGL sits at the 63.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.2% ($76.93 to $96.33).

Direct Sub-Reports: AGL RQD Cockpit AGL 12M Forecast AGL Earnings & Move AGL Dividends & DRIP AGL Insiders & 13F AGL Whale Options AGL Profit Sankey AGL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AGL — agilon health inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

agilon health inc. (AGL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $86.63 (+2.04% 1D, market capitalization $1.43B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -7.8%, and free cash flow yield of -8.25%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (7/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.06, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.12x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Agilon health inc. Is a NYSE-listed company in the Health Care sector, operating within the Misc Health and Biotechnology Services industry,. The company's product offering, customer base, and revenue model are not described in the source data beyond its sector classification. FY 2025 revenue was $5.93B, indicating a substantial revenue base despite operating losses.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), agilon health inc. (AGL) reported $5.93B in annual revenue (up from $6.06B in FY2024, -2.1% YoY) and -$391.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.32B revenue, -$262.6M net income) through FY2025, AGL scaled operating cash flow to -$105.8M and free cash flow to -$119.0M, backed by $1.27B in total assets against $15.8M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -8.25% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $7.48 – $133.04 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -7.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore — The only sector context provided is the Health Care sector and Misc Health and Biotechnology Services industry classification.

  • Key Question #1: Can AGL sustain or expand its -7.8% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Misc Health and Biotechnology Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.93B and free cash flow of -$119.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $15.8M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AGL's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AGL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for agilon health inc. (AGL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AGL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AGL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $86.63?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AGL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AGL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $104.43 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Debt/Equity of 0.12 and cash of $173.7M against $15.8M of debt give the balance sheet a low-leverage cushion while operations are restr

The street is overcomplicating agilon health inc. (AGL). Debt/Equity of 0.12 and cash of $173.7M against $15.8M of debt give the balance sheet a low-leverage cushion while operations are restructured.. With an RQD score of 36/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 7/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $91.69.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — AGL's 7/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $65.37 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $84.90

ROIC of -35%, an FCF yield of -8.25%, and operating losses in each reported period show the business is not currently generating return

Careful chasing AGL at $84.90. ROIC of -35%, an FCF yield of -8.25%, and operating losses in each reported period show the business is not currently generating returns on capital.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -7.8%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $65.37 on multiple compression.

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