agilon health inc. (AGL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$84.90 -1.21% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $84.55

agilon health inc. (AGL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.44B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AGL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, agilon health inc. (NYSE: AGL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $84.90 (-1.21% 1D, market cap $1.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AGL ranks #604 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AGL compare to PGNY and SHC in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Misc Health and Biotechnology Services), AGL carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PGNY (Progyny Inc.) holds a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 37.2x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $2.18B) and SHC (Sotera Health Company) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 68.5x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $5.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DVA leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while DVA leads on capital efficiency (29.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGL?
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Per AGL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001831097), agilon health inc. generated $5.93B in revenue (-2.1% YoY), -$391.3M in net income, and -$119.0M in free cash flow against $1.27B in total assets and $15.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $84.55 (-0.41%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510037
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (5)Whales (10)SEC (7)Macro (12)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.4% Base Target
$140 Bull$77 Base$60 Bear
📬 FREE AGL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AGL SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (32% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 62% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$85.49+3.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
42
Grade D$88.83+1.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$90.34-6% Next Q
Current
37
Grade D-$84.90-8.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AGL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AGL currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($87.65) and Max Pain ($89.15) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $139.69.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AGL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
46.430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)
2.06>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
3 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE62% OF RANGE
L: $7$84.90H: $133
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 13 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AGL

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (25)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -8.25% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (35)

Altman-Z 2.06 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (42)

13/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AGL
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AGL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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AGL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +215.14%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $91.00H $91.00L $84.90C $84.90VOL 138.6K
RES: $90.98SUP: $59.79SMA50: $87.65SMA200: $65.29
$141.1$107.7$74.29$40.88$7.47RES $90.98SUP $59.79$84.902026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGL)

Health Care Rank #604 of 1016 ⚔️ PGNY vs AGL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AGL vs. PGNY, SHC, VMD, DVA)

Industry: Misc Health and Biotechnology Services (10 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, agilon health inc. (AGL) ranks #604 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #310 by equity capitalization ($1.44B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DVA leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while DVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.2% ROIC and — gross margin. PGNY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with AGL at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AGL ACTIVE
agilon health inc.
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% -1.21% $1.44B Benchmark Subject
PGNY
Progyny Inc.
B+ 78/100 37.2x 23.6% 16.7% +2.78% $2.18B /pgny-vs-agl →
SHC
Sotera Health Company
D+ 53/100 68.5x 55.5% 3.1% -2.94% $5.34B /shc-vs-agl →
VMD
Viemed Healthcare Inc.
B 75/100 24.6x 57.5% 13.0% -2.81% $379.0M /vmd-vs-agl →
DVA
DaVita Inc.
B+ 77/100 11.4x — 29.2% -3.01% $12.33B /dva-vs-agl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001831097

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), agilon health inc. (AGL) reported GAAP revenue of $5.93B (-2.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.06B , and +37.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$391.3M, operating cash flow of -$105.8M, and free cash flow of -$119.0M (-67.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGL closed FY2025 with $1.27B in total assets against $15.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.06, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $5.93B -$391.3M -$105.8M -$119.0M $1.27B $15.8M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $6.06B -$260.2M -$57.8M -$71.0M $1.73B $34.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.32B -$262.6M -$156.2M -$156.2M — —

3. AGL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, agilon health inc. (NYSE: AGL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $84.90 (-1.21% 1D, market cap $1.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AGL ranks #604 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AGL compare to PGNY and SHC in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Misc Health and Biotechnology Services), AGL carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PGNY (Progyny Inc.) holds a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 37.2x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $2.18B) and SHC (Sotera Health Company) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 68.5x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $5.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DVA leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while DVA leads on capital efficiency (29.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGL?

Per AGL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001831097), agilon health inc. generated $5.93B in revenue (-2.1% YoY), -$391.3M in net income, and -$119.0M in free cash flow against $1.27B in total assets and $15.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AGL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGL last traded at $84.90 (-1.21% on volume of 217,489 shares), positioning the stock -3.14% below its 50-day simple moving average ($87.65) and +30.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($65.29). Across its 52-week range of $7.48 to $133.04, AGL sits at the 61.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.5% ($75.14 to $94.66).

AGL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AGL stock right now?

agilon health inc. (AGL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 37/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AGL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AGL's 12-month base price target is $76.88 (range $59.97 to $139.69), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 37/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AGL — agilon health inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:29:08Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD rating assigns AGL a score of 37 out of 100 and a letter grade of D-, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow," per the Roarable RQD rating.

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of -8.25%. For a prospective investor, the weakest pillar in the framework signals that the business is not currently converting capital into cash returns; valuation support from cash generation is absent.
  • Whale 13F Flow (10 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning and scored 10 of 20. The source does not provide 13F holder detail, so the basis for this score cannot be independently traced in this brief.
  • Insider Conviction (3 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow and scored 3 of 20, the lowest of the five. For a prospective investor this is a notable caution signal, though the underlying transactions are not itemized in the source.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity, scoring 12 of 20. A beta of 1.0 indicates market-level volatility exposure, neither defensive nor amplified.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (7 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.06, the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.12. Debt is low relative to equity, which is a mitigating factor, but the Piotroski reading is weak and the Z-Score sits in a range that warrants scrutiny.

Taken together, the score profile suggests that the upside case depends on a turnaround in operating economics, since the cash engine and insider flow pillars are the weakest. The valuation tradeoff is that the stock's price action (see Snapshot) has been extreme over the past year, so any investor evaluating the name today is weighing a very wide historical range against deteriorating fundamentals.

Business

agilon health inc. is a NYSE-listed company in the Health Care sector, operating within the Misc Health and Biotechnology Services industry, per the profile. The company's product offering, customer base, and revenue model are not described in the source data beyond its sector classification. Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 revenue was $5932.6M, indicating a substantial revenue base despite operating losses.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$5932.6M$-463.2M$-391.3MN/A$-119.0M$173.7M$15.8M
FY 2024$6060.5M$-292.1M$-260.2MN/A$-71.0M$188.2M$34.9M
FY 2023$4316.4M$-232.1M$-262.6MN/A$-156.2MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, the company reported operating and net losses in each listed period, with the FY 2025 operating loss widening to $-463.2M. Per the market data, the operating margin is -7.8%, net margin is -6.6%, gross margin is 0%, and ROIC is -35%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.06 and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9; the balance sheet shows Debt/Equity of 0.12, with cash of $173.7M against debt of $15.8M in FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Recent coverage: Five news items reference AGL. Headlines include a Yahoo Finance piece on outpacing medical peers, multiple "Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings?" pieces (TradingView, Yahoo Finance, The Globe and Mail), a GuruFocus item citing a 4.4% gain with a GF Value of $9, and a Simply Wall St piece on revenue and earnings growth.
  • Light signals: Three items are tagged YELLOW (market wire) and two are tagged GREEN (catalyst), per the news wire.
  • Risk watch items: The Q2 earnings reference suggests a recent earnings event; the source does not provide the figures reported.
  • Proprietary signals: Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are present.

Open Questions

  • What drove the FY 2025 operating loss to widen to $-463.2M from $-292.1M in FY 2024, and what is the trajectory into subsequent periods?
  • What are the EPS, P/E, and EV/EBITDA figures, which are absent from the source data and would allow valuation comparison?
  • What were the Q2 earnings results referenced in the news wire, and how did they compare with expectations?
  • Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what is the direction of recent 13F and Form 4 activity?
  • What is the company's revenue mix, customer concentration, and gross margin structure, given a reported gross margin of 0%?

AGL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for agilon health inc. (AGL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AGL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AGL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $84.90?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AGL 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AGL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $75.63 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AGL (D- • RQD 37/100) a Buy at $85.94?

Welcome to the AGL (agilon health inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 37/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Misc Health and Biotechnology Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $67.03 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $85.94

Pump the brakes on AGL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AGL, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless agilon health inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $107.43 (+25.0%)
Spot @ $85.94

AGL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AGL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Misc Health and Biotechnology Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $85.94 (52-wk range $7.48 - $133.04), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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