Aeva Technologies Inc. (AEVA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$9.27 -6.74% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.14

Aeva Technologies Inc. (AEVA) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 21/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $646.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AEVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Aeva Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AEVA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $9.27 (-6.74% 1D, market cap $646.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AEVA ranks #979 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AEVA compare to APOG and SMP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), AEVA carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -3.7%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, APOG (Apogee Enterprises Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 17.7x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $945.3M) and SMP (Standard Motor Products Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 8.6%, cap $947.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, APOG leads on earnings multiple (17.7x) while CPS leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEVA?
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Per AEVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001789029), Aeva Technologies Inc. generated $18.1M in revenue (+99.4% YoY), -$145.0M in net income, and -$119.7M in free cash flow against $179.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.14 (-1.40%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (21/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510021
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (4)SEC (8)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.6% Base Target
$33 Bull$8 Base$6 Bear
📬 FREE AEVA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AEVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (21/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AEVA SCORES 21/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (38% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+4/20 pts (19% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 0% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
29
Grade E$12.17-15.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
26
Grade E$10.27+1.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
24
Grade E$10.44-11.2% Next Q
Current
21
Grade E$9.27-11.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (29) → E (21)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AEVA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AEVA currently carries a cautious 21/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.43) and Max Pain ($9.73) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $32.87.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AEVA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AEVA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AEVA Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $9.27: 1078.7 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $6.03
$6,505
$-3,495 (-35.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $7.73
$8,339
$-1,661 (-16.6%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $32.87
$35,458
+$25,458 (+254.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$3169%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$758%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AEVA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AEVA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AEVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.07%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $9.94H $9.94L $9.27C $9.27VOL 2.54M
RES: $21.28SUP: $7.92SMA50: $13.43SMA200: $16.81
$32.88$26.32$19.76$13.20$6.64RES $21.28SUP $7.92$9.272026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AEVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +99.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AEVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AEVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AEVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AEVA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #979 of 1011 ⚔️ APOG vs AEVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AEVA vs. APOG, SMP, DCH, CPS)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aeva Technologies Inc. (AEVA) ranks #979 by composite RQD confidence (21/100, grade E) and #561 by equity capitalization ($646.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, APOG leads on earnings valuation at 17.7x trailing P/E, while CPS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 11.9% gross margin. APOG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with AEVA at 21/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AEVA ACTIVE
Aeva Technologies Inc.
E 21/100 — -3.7% -35.0% -6.74% $646.2M Benchmark Subject
APOG
Apogee Enterprises Inc.
B- 71/100 17.7x 22.7% 9.2% -1.22% $945.3M /apog-vs-aeva →
SMP
Standard Motor Products Inc.
C- 61/100 20.2x 31.2% 8.6% +10.88% $947.5M /smp-vs-aeva →
DCH
Dauch Corporation
E 30/100 — 12.1% 2.2% -4.21% $1.14B /dch-vs-aeva →
CPS
Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.
D- 42/100 — 11.9% 85.0% -3.56% $356.6M /cps-vs-aeva →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001789029

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aeva Technologies Inc. (AEVA) reported GAAP revenue of $18.1M (+99.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $9.1M , and +319.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$145.0M, operating cash flow of -$115.1M, and free cash flow of -$119.7M (-6.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, AEVA closed FY2025 with $179.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $18.1M -$145.0M -$115.1M -$119.7M $179.7M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $9.1M -$152.0M -$106.9M -$112.0M $147.5M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.3M -$149.0M -$118.8M -$118.8M — —

3. AEVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AEVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Aeva Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AEVA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $9.27 (-6.74% 1D, market cap $646.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AEVA ranks #979 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AEVA compare to APOG and SMP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), AEVA carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -3.7%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, APOG (Apogee Enterprises Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 17.7x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $945.3M) and SMP (Standard Motor Products Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 8.6%, cap $947.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, APOG leads on earnings multiple (17.7x) while CPS leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEVA?

Per AEVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001789029), Aeva Technologies Inc. generated $18.1M in revenue (+99.4% YoY), -$145.0M in net income, and -$119.7M in free cash flow against $179.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AEVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AEVA last traded at $9.27 (-6.74% on volume of 2,538,011 shares), positioning the stock -30.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.43) and -44.85% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.81). Across its 52-week range of $8.68 to $31.30, AEVA sits at the 2.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.11 to $10.43).

AEVA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AEVA's 12-month stock price target?

Aeva Technologies Inc. (AEVA) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $7.73 (-16.6% from $9.27), with a bull-case target of $32.87 and a bear-case floor of $6.03.

Is AEVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates AEVA E (Strong Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 21/100.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 21/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AEVA — Aeva Technologies Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:33:46Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD score is 20, graded E, with the verdict "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid" (per the Roarable RQD rating). Each of the five pillars scores 3 out of 20 except the forensic balance sheet pillar, which scores 8 out of 20.

  • Fundamental cash engine (3 / 20): The rating cites ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -17.27%. For a prospective investor, this means the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital or free cash flow to shareholders. Any valuation case must rest on future cash generation that the source data does not establish.
  • Whale 13F flow (3 / 20): The pillar label references institutional accumulation and options positioning, but no 13F or options detail is provided in the source data. The low score signals weak support from this signal category.
  • Insider conviction (3 / 20): The pillar label references SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. No holder transactions are provided in the source data, so the low score offers no evidence of insider conviction in either direction beyond the rating itself.
  • Macro regime fit (3 / 20): The rating cites beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is rated as moving in line with the broad market, so it offers no defensive characteristic against market-wide moves, and the rating treats its sector sensitivity as unfavorable.
  • Forensic balance sheet (8 / 20): The rating cites Altman Z of 0.2, Piotroski F of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. The Altman Z of 0.2 sits in a range the rating treats as distress-associated, which is the central forensic concern.

Upside drivers are not established in the source data. Valuation tradeoffs cannot be quantified because P/E, forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS are unavailable. The practical implication is that the rating frames the stock as high-risk on every pillar, with the balance sheet and cash generation as the primary concerns. This is an educational reading of the rating, not personalized advice.

Business

Aeva Technologies Inc. (AEVA) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Auto Parts:O.E.M. industry (per the company profile). The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model beyond these classifications. Reported revenue is shown in the financial periods below. Gross margin is -3.7% (per the market data).

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$18.1M$-127.6M$-145.0MN/A$-119.7M$72.3MN/A
FY 2024$9.1M$-158.4M$-152.0MN/A$-112.0M$28.9MN/A
FY 2023$4.3M$-147.8M$-149.0MN/A$-118.8MN/AN/A

Reported revenue rose from $4.3M in FY 2023 to $18.1M in FY 2025, while operating losses remained large in every period shown. Operating margin is -60% and net margin is -60% (per the market data). ROIC is -35%. The Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5 (per the Roarable RQD rating). Cash rose to $72.3M in FY 2025 from $28.9M in FY 2024. Period-level debt is not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Catalyst (GREEN): A Yahoo Finance item reports a fair-value move lower after analyst caution on the growth story.
  • Risk Watch (RED): A Seeking Alpha item reports a pivot toward optical connectivity while core risks remain unchanged.
  • Market Wire (YELLOW): StockInvest.us, MarketBeat, Finviz, and TradingView items cover price action, a 6.4% share decline cited by MarketBeat, and an announced date for third quarter 2026 results and a conference call.

The butterfly supply-chain graph lists sector "Consumer Discretionary," industry "Auto Parts:O.E.M.," supply chain "NONE," and no butterfly links or proprietary signals. Its sector and industry match the company profile.

Open Questions

  • What are AEVA's products, customers, and revenue model, given the source data provides only sector and industry classifications?
  • What drove the revenue increase from $9.1M to $18.1M, and what portion of revenue is recurring?
  • What is the period-level debt and the EPS figure, since the financials show debt and EPS as N/A?
  • What is the expected timing and scale of the cash burn implied by the FY 2025 free cash flow of $-119.7M against cash of $72.3M?
  • What is the nature of the optical connectivity pivot referenced in the news wire, and how does it relate to the reported financials?

AEVA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aeva Technologies Inc. (AEVA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AEVA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AEVA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.27?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AEVA 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AEVA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.75 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AEVA (E • RQD 20/100) a Buy at $9.94?

Welcome to the AEVA (Aeva Technologies Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 20/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Auto Parts:O.E.M.. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.75 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $9.94

Pump the brakes on AEVA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AEVA, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with -3.7% gross margins. Unless Aeva Technologies Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.43 (+25.1%)
Spot @ $9.94

AEVA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AEVA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Auto Parts:O.E.M. and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $9.94 (52-wk range $8.68 - $31.30), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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