Stock Ratings / Financials / ACGL / earnings

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Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.1% Move

$106.36 +2.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $107.06

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 78/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 9% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 78/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.6% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $35.47B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ACGL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ACGL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: ACGL) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 78/100 at a spot price of $106.36 (+2.33% 1D, market cap $35.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ACGL ranks #11 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ACGL compare to HIG and AIG in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), ACGL carries a Roarable B+ (78/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.2%. By comparison, HIG (The Hartford Insurance Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 9.2x, ROIC 28.4%, cap $35.31B) and AIG (American International Group Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $42.58B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACGL leads on earnings multiple (8.1x) while HIG leads on capital efficiency (28.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACGL?

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Per ACGL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000947484), Arch Capital Group Ltd. generated $19.93B in revenue (+14.3% YoY), $4.40B in net income, and $5.28B in free cash flow against $79.24B in total assets and $24.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $107.06 (+0.66%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 26.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 78/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.6% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ACGL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (78/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ACGL SCORES 78/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.1% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 26% operating margin leave 6 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$96.85+4.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$101.29-0.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$100.34+6% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$106.36+7.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (70) → B+ (78)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ACGL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 78/100 (B+) score, ACGL faces multiple-compression risk if 8.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($98.09) or 200D SMA ($96.93) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($115.93) toward Bear Floor ($87.22).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ACGL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ACGL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 78%NO 22%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.1% Swing Band

±$4.36 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ACGL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 78/100

Trailing EPS: $12.89 • YoY Revenue Growth: 14.3%

Model Bullish Setup (78/100)Model Risk Weight (22/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$19.93B	$4.40B	$5.28B	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$17.44B	$4.31B	$5.89B	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$13.63B	$4.44B	$5.14B	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ACGL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ACGL
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ACGL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.57%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $102.5H $106.4L $102.5C $106.4VOL 1.93M

RES: $106.9SUP: $89.79SMA50: $98.09SMA200: $96.93

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ACGL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ACGL Butterfly Map → + Track ACGL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-5.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ACGL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ACGL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ACGL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ACGL)

Financials Rank #11 of 1096 ⚔️ HIG vs ACGL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ACGL vs. HIG, AIG, CINF, WRB)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) ranks #11 by composite RQD confidence (78/100, grade B+) and #80 by equity capitalization ($35.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACGL leads on earnings valuation at 8.1x trailing P/E, while HIG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 28.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ACGL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 78/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ACGL ACTIVE Arch Capital Group Ltd.	B+	78/100	8.1x	—	9.2%	+2.33%	$35.47B	Benchmark Subject
HIG The Hartford Insurance Group Inc.	B-	70/100	9.2x	—	28.4%	+0.40%	$35.31B	/hig-vs-acgl →
AIG American International Group Inc.	C+	68/100	13.8x	—	4.1%	+0.56%	$42.58B	/aig-vs-acgl →
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation	B+	77/100	11.7x	—	9.2%	-0.37%	$27.92B	/cinf-vs-acgl →
WRB W.R. Berkley Corporation	B	74/100	15.3x	—	8.0%	+1.04%	$27.14B	/wrb-vs-acgl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000947484

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) reported GAAP revenue of $19.93B (+14.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $17.44B , and +46.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $4.40B, operating cash flow of $6.17B, and free cash flow of $5.28B (-10.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ACGL closed FY2025 with $79.24B in total assets against $24.77B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$19.93B	$4.40B	$6.17B	$5.28B	$79.24B	$24.77B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$17.44B	$4.31B	$6.67B	$5.89B	$70.91B	$22.54B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$13.63B	$4.44B	$5.75B	$5.14B	$19.51B	$4.56B

3. ACGL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ACGL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ACGL compare to HIG and AIG in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACGL?

Where is ACGL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ACGL last traded at $106.36 (+2.33% on volume of 2,480,006 shares), positioning the stock +8.43% above its 50-day simple moving average ($98.09) and +9.73% above its 200-day simple moving average ($96.93). Across its 52-week range of $84.70 to $107.09, ACGL sits at the 96.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($102.00 to $110.72).

ACGL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ACGL's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ACGL stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.1% event move for ACGL, spanning a range between $102 and $110.72.

Direct Sub-Reports: ACGL RQD Cockpit ACGL 12M Forecast ACGL Earnings & Move ACGL Dividends & DRIP ACGL Insiders & 13F ACGL Whale Options ACGL Profit Sankey ACGL News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 78/100 (B+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ACGL — Arch Capital Group Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:12:00Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ACGL scores 78 out of 100, a letter grade of B+, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20 (ROIC 9.2%; FCF yield 14.87%), Whale 13F Flow 16/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 17/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 16/20 (Beta 1.07; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 15/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 9/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The strongest pillar is insider conviction, and the weakest is the cash engine, which means the score leans more on who is buying and how the balance sheet is built than on current cash generation relative to the rest of the picture. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on continued institutional and insider accumulation, a clean forensic profile, and a low trailing multiple (P/E 8.1 per the market data). The valuation tradeoff is that the 14.87% FCF yield and low multiples are only as durable as the earnings base beneath them, and the rating does not establish whether recent momentum persists. The rating is a structured summary of the supplied data, not a recommendation.

Snapshot

Metric	Value
Price	103.94
Market Cap	$35.47B
P/E (TTM)	8.1
Forward P/E	6.8
EV/EBITDA	9.4
EPS (TTM)	12.89
Dividend Yield	0%
Beta	1.07
52-Wk Range	$84.7 - $107.09
ROIC %	9.2%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$19929.0M	$5190.8M	$4399.0M	N/A	$5275.2M	$993.0M	$24765.8M
FY 2024	$17440.0M	$5088.2M	$4312.0M	N/A	$5888.2M	$979.0M	$22538.7M
FY 2023	$13634.0M	$5242.7M	$4443.0M	N/A	$5135.5M	N/A	$4564.6M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $13634.0M (FY 2023) to $19929.0M (FY 2025), while net income moved from $4443.0M to $4399.0M over the same span. Debt increased from $4564.6M to $24765.8M across the three periods. Per the market data, ROIC is 9.2%, net margin 22.1%, and operating margin 26.9%. The Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 are reported through the Roarable RQD forensic pillar; Debt/Equity is reported as 0.5. EPS for the reported periods is N/A in the financial statements, though trailing EPS of 12.89 appears in market data.

Open Questions

What are ACGL's specific product lines, premium sources, and customer segments, given the source data gives only sector and industry classification?
Which drivers explain the spread between the 8.1 trailing P/E and 6.8 forward P/E, and what earnings trajectory does the forward estimate assume?
What caused the increase in debt from $4564.6M (FY 2023) to $24765.8M (FY 2025), and how does it relate to the Debt/Equity reading of 0.5?
Which specific events drove the RED RISK WATCH and GREEN CATALYST headlines in the news feed?
What does the institutional 13F and insider Form 4 activity behind the pillar scores consist of, since the holders section contains no records?

ACGL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

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🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 5h ago

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Stock Falls Amid Market Uptick: What Investors Need to Know