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Stock Ratings / Communication Services / NCMI
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National CineMedia Inc. (NCMI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$1.61 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.61

National CineMedia Inc. (NCMI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $151.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NCMI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, National CineMedia Inc. (NASDAQ: NCMI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $1.61 (0.00% 1D, market cap $151.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, NCMI ranks #92 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NCMI compare to FLNT and ANGI in the Communication Services sector?
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Within the Communication Services sector (Advertising), NCMI carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 94.7%, and ROIC of -3.1%. By comparison, FLNT (Fluent Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $108.7M) and ANGI (Angi Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 5.6x, ROIC 4.6%, cap $242.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ANGI leads on earnings multiple (5.6x) while THRY leads on capital efficiency (10.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCMI?
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Per NCMI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-01, CIK 0001377630), National CineMedia Inc. generated $243.2M in revenue (+1.0% YoY), -$10.6M in net income, and $2.8M in free cash flow against $490.6M in total assets and $12.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.61 (-0.19%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 1.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510039
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (7)Whales (3)SEC (12)Macro (8)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.7% Base Target
$5 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE NCMI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NCMI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NCMI SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.13 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$2.21-7.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
44
Grade D$2.05-10.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
42
Grade D$1.84-12.5% Next Q
Current
39
Grade D-$1.61-7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (47) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NCMI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NCMI currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.20) and Max Pain ($1.69) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.74.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NCMI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NCMI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 31, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)
28.730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)
2.13>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE
L: $2$1.61H: $5
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 12 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on NCMI

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (35)

-3.1% ROIC with 94.7% gross margin and 1.69% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 2.13 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (33)

12/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NCMI
  • ✓Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NCMI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NCMI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NCMI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -52.23%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $1.76H $1.76L $1.61C $1.61VOL 953.9K
RES: $4.85SUP: $1.57SMA50: $2.20SMA200: $3.15
$4.46$3.68$2.90$2.13$1.35RES $4.85SUP $1.57$1.612026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NCMI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NCMI Butterfly Map → + Track NCMI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NCMI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NCMI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NCMI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NCMI)

Communication Services Rank #92 of 132 ⚔️ FLNT vs NCMI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (NCMI vs. FLNT, ANGI, STFS, THRY)

Industry: Advertising (23 Tracked Issuers)

Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, National CineMedia Inc. (NCMI) ranks #92 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #92 by equity capitalization ($151.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ANGI leads on earnings valuation at 5.6x trailing P/E, while THRY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.1% ROIC and 67.9% gross margin. ANGI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with NCMI at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NCMI ACTIVE
National CineMedia Inc.
D- 39/100 — 94.7% -3.1% 0.00% $151.5M Benchmark Subject
FLNT
Fluent Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% +0.29% $108.7M /flnt-vs-ncmi →
ANGI
Angi Inc. (Class A)
D+ 52/100 5.6x 95.4% 4.6% -3.34% $242.9M /angi-vs-ncmi →
STFS
Star Fashion Culture Holdings Limited (Class A)
E 34/100 — 5.7% -35.0% +3.69% $74.1M /stfs-vs-ncmi →
THRY
Thryv Holdings Inc.
D 47/100 — 67.9% 10.1% -0.80% $55.5M /thry-vs-ncmi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-01 • CIK 0001377630 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-01), National CineMedia Inc. (NCMI) reported GAAP revenue of $243.2M (+1.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $240.8M , and +47.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$10.6M, operating cash flow of $8.4M, and free cash flow of $2.8M (-94.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, NCMI closed FY2025 with $490.6M in total assets against $12.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.13, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-01 $243.2M -$10.6M $8.4M $2.8M $490.6M $12.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-12-26 $240.8M -$22.3M $60.3M $54.5M $568.6M $10.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-12-28 $165.2M $705.2M -$6.7M -$6.7M — —

3. NCMI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NCMI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, National CineMedia Inc. (NASDAQ: NCMI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $1.61 (0.00% 1D, market cap $151.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, NCMI ranks #92 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NCMI compare to FLNT and ANGI in the Communication Services sector?

Within the Communication Services sector (Advertising), NCMI carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 94.7%, and ROIC of -3.1%. By comparison, FLNT (Fluent Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $108.7M) and ANGI (Angi Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 5.6x, ROIC 4.6%, cap $242.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ANGI leads on earnings multiple (5.6x) while THRY leads on capital efficiency (10.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCMI?

Per NCMI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-01, CIK 0001377630), National CineMedia Inc. generated $243.2M in revenue (+1.0% YoY), -$10.6M in net income, and $2.8M in free cash flow against $490.6M in total assets and $12.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NCMI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NCMI last traded at $1.61 (0.00% on volume of 1,098,013 shares), positioning the stock -26.82% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.20) and -48.89% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.15). Across its 52-week range of $1.59 to $4.51, NCMI sits at the 0.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 28.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.7% ($1.44 to $1.78).

Direct Sub-Reports: NCMI RQD Cockpit NCMI 12M Forecast NCMI Earnings & Move NCMI Dividends & DRIP NCMI Insiders & 13F NCMI Whale Options NCMI Profit Sankey NCMI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NCMI — National CineMedia Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-01-01

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

National CineMedia Inc. (NCMI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 39/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $1.61 (0.00% 1D, market capitalization $151.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -3.1%, gross margin of 94.7%, operating margin of -5.7%, and free cash flow yield of 1.69%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.13, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.03x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

National CineMedia Inc. (NCMI) is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Communication Services sector and the Advertising industry,. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 94.7%, indicating a high-margin revenue base.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-01), National CineMedia Inc. (NCMI) reported $243.2M in annual revenue (up from $240.8M in FY2024, +1.0% YoY) and -$10.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($165.2M revenue, $705.2M net income) through FY2025, NCMI scaled operating cash flow to $8.4M and free cash flow to $2.8M, backed by $490.6M in total assets against $12.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 39/100): Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 1.69% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.59 – $4.51 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -5.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The butterfly supply-chain graph lists no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals, so no supply-chain dependencies or sector ripple paths can be identified from the source data. Investors should note that the cited Texas Capital leverage concern and the Blantyre board-seat item are the only news-level indicators of balance-sheet and governance dynamics available here.

  • Key Question #1: Can NCMI sustain or expand its -5.7% operating margin and -3.1% ROIC against Advertising peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $243.2M and free cash flow of $2.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $12.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NCMI's equity valuation to Communication Services capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NCMI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for National CineMedia Inc. (NCMI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NCMI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NCMI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.61?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NCMI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NCMI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.01 (+24.8%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet metrics (Altman Z 2.13, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.03) and a 6.89% dividend yield offer a stability cushion

Don't sleep on NCMI's setup in Communication Services. Forensic balance sheet metrics (Altman Z 2.13, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.03) and a 6.89% dividend yield offer a stability cushion at a $1.76 price.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (39/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — NCMI's 12/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.24 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $1.61

Negative ROIC (-3.1%), negative operating margin (-5.7%), and a 3/20 whale-flow pillar show weak cash returns and limited institutional

I respect the product at National CineMedia Inc., but the stock at $1.61 is a different story. Negative ROIC (-3.1%), negative operating margin (-5.7%), and a 3/20 whale-flow pillar show weak cash returns and limited institutional conviction.. FCF yield is 1.69% and RQD sits at 39/100 (D-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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