What is CVCO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

CVCO's 12-month base price target is $728.52 (range $543.57 to $859.65), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CVCO

SKY (81) ECG (46) MTH (59) IBP (67) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell CVCO stock right now?

Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy — BUY) with 80/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (24% profit margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

$662.89 +7.09% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $672.94

Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 80/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (24% profit margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $4.76B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CVCO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CVCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Cavco Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: CVCO) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $662.89 (+7.09% 1D, market cap $4.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CVCO ranks #21 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CVCO compare to SKY and ECG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), CVCO carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.0x, gross margin of 23.5%, and ROIC of 17.6%. By comparison, SKY (Champion Homes Inc.) holds a A- grade (81/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 20.8%, cap $4.60B) and ECG (Everus Construction Group Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 27.3x, ROIC 30.4%, cap $5.24B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTH leads on earnings multiple (9.3x) while ECG leads on capital efficiency (30.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CVCO?

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Per CVCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-28, CIK 0000278166), Cavco Industries Inc. generated $2.24B in revenue (+11.4% YoY), $191.2M in net income, and $232.1M in free cash flow against $1.47B in total assets and $172.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (24% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $672.97 (+1.52%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 10.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 80/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.3% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CVCO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (80/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CVCO SCORES 80/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10.3% FCF Margin ($232.1M FCF) & 23.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 10.31 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (61.9) create a -7 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$506.30+2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$516.25+3.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$532.57+24.5% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$662.89+8.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (72) → B+ (80)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CVCO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 80/100 (B+) score, CVCO faces multiple-compression risk if 22.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 21.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($548.28) or 200D SMA ($548.41) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($728.52) toward Bear Floor ($543.57).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CVCO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CVCO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 80%NO 20%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

61.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

10.31>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE81% OF RANGE

L: $443$662.89H: $713

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (24% profit margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: ARQD 18 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: B+RQD 31 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B+RQD 31 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on CVCO

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (90)

17.6% ROIC with 23.5% gross margin and 5.52% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (90)

Altman-Z 10.31 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (73)

31/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CVCO

✓Strong cash generator (24% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CVCO Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CVCO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +38.26%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $547.3H $662.9L $547.3C $662.9VOL 249.0K

RES: $587.0SUP: $490.1SMA50: $548.3SMA200: $548.4

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CVCO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CVCO Butterfly Map → + Track CVCO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

15.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CVCO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CVCO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CVCO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CVCO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #21 of 1011 ⚔️ SKY vs CVCO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CVCO vs. SKY, ECG, MTH, IBP)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) ranks #21 by composite RQD confidence (80/100, grade B+) and #280 by equity capitalization ($4.76B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTH leads on earnings valuation at 9.3x trailing P/E, while ECG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.4% ROIC and 12.1% gross margin. SKY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 81/100 (A-) compared with CVCO at 80/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CVCO ACTIVE Cavco Industries Inc.	B+	80/100	22.0x	23.5%	17.6%	+7.09%	$4.76B	Benchmark Subject
SKY Champion Homes Inc.	A-	81/100	21.3x	26.4%	20.8%	+4.72%	$4.60B	/sky-vs-cvco →
ECG Everus Construction Group Inc.	D	46/100	27.3x	12.1%	30.4%	+0.35%	$5.24B	/ecg-vs-cvco →
MTH Meritage Homes Corporation	C-	59/100	9.3x	—	8.0%	+7.04%	$4.20B	/mth-vs-cvco →
IBP Installed Building Products Inc.	C+	67/100	21.3x	34.0%	24.7%	+3.32%	$5.67B	/ibp-vs-cvco →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-28 • CIK 0000278166

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-28), Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.24B (+11.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.02B , and +25.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $191.2M, operating cash flow of $267.5M, and free cash flow of $232.1M (+47.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, CVCO closed FY2025 with $1.47B in total assets against $172.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.31, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-28	$2.24B	$191.2M	$267.5M	$232.1M	$1.47B	$172.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-29	$2.02B	$171.0M	$178.5M	$157.1M	$1.39B	$324.3M
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-30	$1.79B	$157.9M	$224.7M	$143.9M	$2.31B	$541.6M

3. CVCO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CVCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does CVCO compare to SKY and ECG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CVCO?

Where is CVCO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CVCO last traded at $662.89 (+7.09% on volume of 127,536 shares), positioning the stock +20.90% above its 50-day simple moving average ($548.28) and +20.87% above its 200-day simple moving average ($548.41). Across its 52-week range of $443.34 to $713.01, CVCO sits at the 81.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.2% ($601.90 to $723.88).

Direct Sub-Reports: CVCO RQD Cockpit CVCO 12M Forecast CVCO Earnings & Move CVCO Dividends & DRIP CVCO Insiders & 13F CVCO Whale Options CVCO Profit Sankey CVCO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 80/100 (B+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CVCO — Cavco Industries Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2026-03-28

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 80/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $662.89 (+7.09% 1D, market capitalization $4.76B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 17.6%, gross margin of 23.5%, operating margin of 10.2%, and free cash flow yield of 5.52%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 0.93x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 10.31, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.15x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Homebuilding industry. — for detailed product lines, customer segments, or revenue-generating mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification. The reported margin figures (gross margin 23.5%, operating margin 10.2%, net margin 8.5%) are per the market data section.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-03-28), Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) reported $2.24B in annual revenue (up from $2.02B in FY2024, +11.4% YoY) and $191.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.79B revenue, $157.9M net income) through FY2025, CVCO scaled operating cash flow to $267.5M and free cash flow to $232.1M, backed by $1.47B in total assets against $172.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 80/100): Strong cash generator (24% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $443.34 – $713.01 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 22.0x trailing P/E and 16.0x EV/EBITDA against 10.2% operating margins and a 0.93x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are therefore — Sector correlations beyond the sector and industry classification are — Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided sources.

For a prospective investor, the practical implication is that the ripple effects of homebuilding-sector conditions on CVCO cannot be mapped here, and the Roarable Macro Regime Fit pillar (9/20) is the only source-backed indicator of sector sensitivity.

Key Question #1: Can CVCO sustain or expand its 10.2% operating margin and 17.6% ROIC against Homebuilding peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.24B and free cash flow of $232.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $172.3M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is CVCO's 20.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.93x)?

CVCO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CVCO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

Cavco Industries (CVCO) Stock May Be Fully Priced Given Its Earnings

Yahoo Finance report covering Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Trefis • 23h ago

Is Cavco Industries Stock Engineered To Make You Money?

Trefis report covering Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Earnings Flash (CVCO) Cavco Industries Posts Fiscal Q2 EPS $7.17, vs. FactSet Est of $5.52

marketscreener.com report covering Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Cavco Industries (CVCO) Stock Jumps On Q2 Earnings Despite Margin Pressure

Simply Wall St report covering Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Quiver Quantitative • 1d ago

CAVCO INDUSTRIES ($CVCO) Releases Q2 2027 Earnings

Quiver Quantitative report covering Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

A one-time $7M insurance benefit lifts Cavco (CVCO) earnings as home sales volume rises 15.3%.

Stock Titan report covering Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com Australia • 1d ago

Cavco Industries stock rises 2% after beating Q2 estimates By Investing.com

Investing.com Australia report covering Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Rising Backlogs and Scale Support Cavco Industries’ (CVCO) Long-Term Growth Thesis

Yahoo Finance report covering Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CVCO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $662.89?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CVCO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $786.13 (+27.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Strong cash conversion (ROIC 17.6%, FCF yield 5.52%) with a very low Debt/Equity of 0.15 and Altman Z of 10.31 gives the stock a sound

Strong cash conversion (ROIC 17.6%, FCF yield 5.52%) with a very low Debt/Equity of 0.15 and Altman Z of 10.31 gives the stock a sound fundamental base.. When you look under the hood at CVCO, Fundamental Cash Engine is 18/20 with 23.5% gross margins and 17.6% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (15/20) has been quietly accumulating below $713.01. My 12M target is $786.13.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 80/100 quality, though with 0.93 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $619.00 and keeping dry powder in case we test $575.67.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $470.44 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $619.00

At a 22x trailing P/E near the upper end of its 52-week range, the stock is exposed to multiple compression, and a one-time $7M insuran

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on CVCO: At a 22x trailing P/E near the upper end of its 52-week range, the stock is exposed to multiple compression, and a one-time $7M insurance benefit flatters recent earnings.. At 22.0x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Homebuilding triggers a 12-15% air pocket.