Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$39.26 +2.35% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.35

Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $710.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AROW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Arrow Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: AROW) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $39.26 (+2.35% 1D, market cap $710.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AROW ranks #280 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AROW compare to PFIS and CWBC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), AROW carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.2%. By comparison, PFIS (Peoples Financial Services Corp.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 12.1x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $703.9M) and CWBC (Community West Bancshares) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $699.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCAL leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while PFIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AROW?
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Per AROW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000717538), Arrow Financial Corporation generated $1.87B in revenue (+3.2% YoY), $44.0M in net income, and $36.2M in free cash flow against $4.45B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.35 (+0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 1.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (11)Whales (12)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$48 Bull$40 Base$31 Bear
📬 FREE AROW RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AROW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AROW SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (20% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$36.58+2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$37.49+2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$38.44+2.1% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$39.26+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AROW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, AROW faces multiple-compression risk if 16.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.85) or 200D SMA ($37.00) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.32) toward Bear Floor ($31.45).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AROW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AROW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
55.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE77% OF RANGE
L: $28$39.26H: $43
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on AROW

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (55)

10.2% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 5.05% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (67)

27/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AROW
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AROW Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AROW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.30%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $38.66H $39.26L $38.36C $39.26VOL 73.5K
RES: $37.82SUP: $35.18SMA50: $37.85SMA200: $37.00
$43.51$40.16$36.81$33.47$30.12RES $37.82SUP $35.18$39.262026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AROW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AROW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AROW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AROW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AROW)

Financials Rank #280 of 1096 ⚔️ PFIS vs AROW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AROW vs. PFIS, CWBC, BCAL, WASH)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) ranks #280 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #618 by equity capitalization ($710.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while PFIS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. WASH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with AROW at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AROW ACTIVE
Arrow Financial Corporation
C 64/100 16.3x — 10.2% +2.35% $710.6M Benchmark Subject
PFIS
Peoples Financial Services Corp.
C 63/100 12.1x — 11.4% +6.54% $703.9M /pfis-vs-arow →
CWBC
Community West Bancshares
C- 60/100 18.6x — 9.3% +2.21% $699.7M /cwbc-vs-arow →
BCAL
California BanCorp
C 62/100 10.9x — 10.9% +1.86% $690.6M /bcal-vs-arow →
WASH
Washington Trust Bancorp Inc.
C+ 69/100 14.3x — 9.6% +3.40% $736.1M /wash-vs-arow →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000717538

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) reported GAAP revenue of $1.87B (+3.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.81B , and +1278.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $44.0M, operating cash flow of $41.3M, and free cash flow of $36.2M (+25.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, AROW closed FY2025 with $4.45B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.87B $44.0M $41.3M $36.2M $4.45B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.81B $29.7M $34.5M $28.9M $4.31B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $135.4M $30.1M $20.6M $20.6M — —

3. AROW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AROW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Arrow Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: AROW) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $39.26 (+2.35% 1D, market cap $710.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AROW ranks #280 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AROW compare to PFIS and CWBC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), AROW carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.2%. By comparison, PFIS (Peoples Financial Services Corp.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 12.1x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $703.9M) and CWBC (Community West Bancshares) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $699.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCAL leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while PFIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AROW?

Per AROW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000717538), Arrow Financial Corporation generated $1.87B in revenue (+3.2% YoY), $44.0M in net income, and $36.2M in free cash flow against $4.45B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AROW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AROW last traded at $39.26 (+2.35% on volume of 91,953 shares), positioning the stock +3.73% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.85) and +6.11% above its 200-day simple moving average ($37.00). Across its 52-week range of $28.00 to $42.70, AROW sits at the 76.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($37.41 to $41.11).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AROW — Arrow Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:33:33Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

AROW scores 64 out of 100, graded C, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 11 / 20. Per the RQD pillar, this reflects ROIC of 10.2% and an FCF yield of 5.05%. Both are reported in the market data. The pillar sits below midpoint, indicating that cash generation is present but not outstanding relative to the scoring framework.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 12 / 20. The pillar is labeled "Institutional accumulation & options positioning." No underlying 13F holdings or options detail is provided in the holders section, so the score cannot be traced to specific positions.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 13 / 20. Per the RQD pillar, beta is 1.0 and the score reflects sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 implies market-level sensitivity to broad moves.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. Per the RQD pillar, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. These figures are mid-range on the scoring scale.

For a prospective investor, the composite reads as balanced rather than compelling. Strength is concentrated in insider flow, while cash-engine and forensic scores are moderate. The valuation inputs (P/E TTM 16.3, forward P/E 15.2) and the 5. This is an educational summary of the rating, not personalized advice.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry. The profile identifies the company as a banking-sector business with a market capitalization of $0.7B.

Reported net income rose from $30.1M (FY 2023) to $29.7M (FY 2024) and then to $44.0M (FY 2025), with FCF moving from $20.6M to $28.9M to $36.2M over the same periods. Revenue and operating income are reported as —, so margin analysis cannot be performed from the filings. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each listed as 0%, which should be treated as non-informative given the zero-reported revenue line. Per the market data, ROIC is 10.2%. Per the Roarable RQD pillar, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case: Net income rose from $29.7M in FY 2024 to $44.0M in FY 2025 while FCF climbed to $36.2M, with the insider pillar scoring 15 / 20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 (ROIC 10.2%, FCF yield 5.05%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $28.00 – $42.70 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Per the news feed, about $15.6 million in merger costs topped the company's profit tied to the Adirondack deal, and revenue and operating income are unreported at $0.0M. Investors must weigh 16.3x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector-level information is the classification itself (Financials / Major Banks) and beta of 1.0. Investors should note that the absence of mapped links means ripple effects cannot be traced from this dataset.

  • Key Question #1: What are the cash and total debt balances behind the 0.5 Debt/Equity ratio?
  • Key Question #2: What were the specific terms and integration timeline of the Adirondack Bancorp acquisition, and how much of the $15.6 million in merger costs is expected to be non-recurring?
  • Key Question #3: What is the analyst consensus and price-target distribution, given that analyst data is not provided?

AROW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AROW Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AROW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $39.26?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AROW 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AROW:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $44.88 (+17.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $29.7M in FY 2024 to $44.0M in FY 2025 while FCF climbed to $36.2M, with the insider pilla

The street is overcomplicating Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW). Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $29.7M in FY 2024 to $44.0M in FY 2025 while FCF climbed to $36.2M, with the insider pillar scoring 15 / 20.. With an RQD score of 64/100 (C) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $41.43.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — AROW's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

BE BearTrap_Alert Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $29.92 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $38.36

Per the news feed, about $15.6 million in merger costs topped the company's profit tied to the Adirondack deal, and revenue and operati

I respect the product at Arrow Financial Corporation, but the stock at $38.36 is a different story. Per the news feed, about $15.6 million in merger costs topped the company's profit tied to the Adirondack deal, and revenue and operating income are unreported at $0.0M.. FCF yield is 5.05% and RQD sits at 64/100 (C) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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