Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

MSBI scores 58 out of 100, equating to a D+ grade and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are as follows:

• Fundamental Cash Engine (10 / 20): Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of -22% and an FCF yield of 17.14%. The negative ROIC is the primary drag; the high FCF yield is a potential upside driver if cash generation proves durable, but the source does not establish durability.
• Whale 13F Flow (15 / 20): The RQD rating cites institutional accumulation and options positioning as a moderate contributor. The underlying 13F detail is not itemized in the source data.
• Insider Conviction (10 / 20): The RQD rating cites SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow as a weak contributor. Individual transactions are not itemized in the source data.
• Macro Regime Fit (13 / 20): Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity noted. A prospective investor should expect the stock to move broadly with the market, without a defensive or high-beta profile.
• Forensic Balance Sheet (10 / 20): Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 3/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. These metrics together indicate moderate-to-weak financial health rather than distress or strength.

Investor implications: the rating points to a valuation tradeoff in which the high FCF yield and 3.94% dividend yield are offset by negative ROIC and a weak forensic profile. The verdict favors caution and trimming over accumulation based on the current source data.

Midland States Bancorp Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry. The profile identifies the company as operating in Major Banks with a market capitalization of $0.7B. Product lines, customer segments, and revenue model details are —

Net income moved from $61.2M (FY 2023) to $38.0M (FY 2024) to -$124.3M (FY 2025), while reported FCF declined from $169.6M to $120.3M over the last two years. Margins (gross, operating, net) are each reported as 0% in the market data, and revenue is reported as — in every period, so margin trends cannot be assessed from source data. Per the market data, ROIC is -22%. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Balance sheet posture is therefore described as moderate-to-weak per the RQD forensic pillar, though total debt values are —

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: The stock offers a 17.14% FCF yield and 3.94% dividend yield, with a Stephens price target raise citing credit quality. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 (ROIC -22.0%, FCF yield 17.14%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $14.52 – $35.10 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: ROIC is -22% and FY 2025 net income fell to -$124.3M, with a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signaling weak fundamentals. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

Upstream and downstream dependencies: — Sector correlations beyond the Financials / Major Banks classification: — Second-order bottlenecks: — Investors should note that the absence of graph linkages means this dossier cannot map ripple effects from credit, funding, or rate shifts to the company's operations; those relationships would need separate verification.

• Key Question #1: What drove the FY 2025 net loss of -$124.3M, and is it recurring or one-time?
• Key Question #2: What is the value of the Stephens price target, and what analyst consensus exists?
• Key Question #3: How sensitive is MSBI's — gross margin and equity valuation to Financials demand cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00)?