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Stock Ratings / Industrials / AAON
NOVT (59) JBTM (26) MIDD (65) ENS (64) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

AAON Inc. (AAON) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$67.40 -10.49% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.00

AAON Inc. (AAON) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $5.56B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AAON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, AAON Inc. (NASDAQ: AAON) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $67.40 (-10.49% 1D, market cap $5.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, AAON ranks #363 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AAON compare to NOVT and JBTM in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), AAON carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 57.7x, gross margin of 26.7%, and ROIC of 9.5%. By comparison, NOVT (Novanta Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 106.2x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $5.51B) and JBTM (JBT Marel Corporation) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.6%, cap $5.66B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MIDD leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while ENS leads on capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AAON?
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Per AAON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000824142), AAON Inc. generated $1.44B in revenue (+20.1% YoY), $107.6M in net income, and -$64.4M in free cash flow against $1.69B in total assets and $394.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.00 (-2.08%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510036
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (5)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target
$158 Bull$61 Base$47 Bear
📬 FREE AAON RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AAON)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AAON SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (36% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.82 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 26.7% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$80.53-6.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$75.23+0.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$75.61-10.9% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$67.40-8.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AAON Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AAON currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($78.37) and Max Pain ($70.77) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $157.98.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AAON• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AAON Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
38.730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
6.82>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
5 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE
L: $66$67.40H: $150
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 10 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AAON

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (40)

9.5% ROIC with 26.7% gross margin and -1.04% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 6.82 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (25)

10/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 5/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AAON
  • ✓Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Priced at 58x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AAON)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AAON's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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AAON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.66%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $75.30H $75.30L $67.40C $67.40VOL 1.83M
RES: $75.28SUP: $64.95SMA50: $78.37SMA200: $97.46
$156.4$131.8$107.2$82.53$57.91RES $75.28SUP $64.95$67.402026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AAON Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AAON Butterfly Map → + Track AAON →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
40.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AAON today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AAON. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AAON today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AAON)

Industrials Rank #363 of 486 ⚔️ NOVT vs AAON Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AAON vs. NOVT, JBTM, MIDD, ENS)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AAON Inc. (AAON) ranks #363 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #135 by equity capitalization ($5.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MIDD leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while ENS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.0% ROIC and 63.4% gross margin. MIDD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with AAON at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AAON ACTIVE
AAON Inc.
D- 36/100 57.7x 26.7% 9.5% -10.49% $5.56B Benchmark Subject
NOVT
Novanta Inc.
C- 59/100 106.2x 44.4% 6.5% -3.58% $5.51B /novt-vs-aaon →
JBTM
JBT Marel Corporation
E 26/100 — 35.1% 2.6% -1.15% $5.66B /jbtm-vs-aaon →
MIDD
Middleby Corporation
C 65/100 14.5x 39.1% 9.7% +1.16% $5.38B /midd-vs-aaon →
ENS
EnerSys
C 64/100 21.0x 63.4% 13.0% -6.66% $5.77B /ens-vs-aaon →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000824142 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AAON Inc. (AAON) reported GAAP revenue of $1.44B (+20.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.20B , and +126.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $107.6M, operating cash flow of $534.0K, and free cash flow of -$64.4M (-146.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AAON closed FY2025 with $1.69B in total assets against $394.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.82, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.44B $107.6M $534.0K -$64.4M $1.69B $394.6M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.20B $168.6M $192.5M $138.5M $1.18B $275.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $637.0M $177.6M $158.9M $158.9M $3.41B $799.1M

3. AAON Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AAON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, AAON Inc. (NASDAQ: AAON) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $67.40 (-10.49% 1D, market cap $5.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, AAON ranks #363 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AAON compare to NOVT and JBTM in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), AAON carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 57.7x, gross margin of 26.7%, and ROIC of 9.5%. By comparison, NOVT (Novanta Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 106.2x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $5.51B) and JBTM (JBT Marel Corporation) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.6%, cap $5.66B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MIDD leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while ENS leads on capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AAON?

Per AAON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000824142), AAON Inc. generated $1.44B in revenue (+20.1% YoY), $107.6M in net income, and -$64.4M in free cash flow against $1.69B in total assets and $394.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AAON trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AAON last traded at $67.40 (-10.49% on volume of 1,829,398 shares), positioning the stock -14.00% below its 50-day simple moving average ($78.37) and -30.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($97.46). Across its 52-week range of $65.55 to $150.46, AAON sits at the 2.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.1% ($59.92 to $74.88).

Direct Sub-Reports: AAON RQD Cockpit AAON 12M Forecast AAON Earnings & Move AAON Dividends & DRIP AAON Insiders & 13F AAON Whale Options AAON Profit Sankey AAON News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AAON — AAON Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

AAON Inc. (AAON) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $67.40 (-10.49% 1D, market capitalization $5.56B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.5%, gross margin of 26.7%, operating margin of 10.1%, and free cash flow yield of -1.04%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.01x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.82, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

AAON Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, specifically the Industrial Machinery/Components industry. Per the Yahoo Finance and other news headlines in the source data, the company is associated with data center cooling demand.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), AAON Inc. (AAON) reported $1.44B in annual revenue (up from $1.20B in FY2024, +20.1% YoY) and $107.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($637.0M revenue, $177.6M net income) through FY2025, AAON scaled operating cash flow to $534.0K and free cash flow to -$64.4M, backed by $1.69B in total assets against $394.6M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -1.04% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $65.55 – $150.46 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 57.7x trailing P/E and 32.5x EV/EBITDA against 10.1% operating margins and a 1.01x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply chain status is NONE, with no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals. Accordingly, specific upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and sector correlations are — The one thematic link in the news feed is the data center cooling demand headline, which, if reflected in revenue, would connect AAON to data center infrastructure spending; the source does not quantify that exposure. A prospective investor should watch whether the FY 2025 revenue growth and the negative FCF are tied to that demand or to working-capital and capital-expenditure timing, which the source does not resolve.

  • Key Question #1: Can AAON sustain or expand its 10.1% operating margin and 9.5% ROIC against Industrial Machinery/Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.44B and free cash flow of -$64.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $394.6M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AAON's 48.5x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.01x)?

AAON Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for AAON Inc. (AAON) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AAON Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AAON Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $67.40?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AAON 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AAON:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $80.88 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The balance sheet is the strongest pillar (13/20, Altman Z 6.82, Debt/Equity 0.39), giving the business solvency room while it works th

Long AAON at $67.40 targeting $80.88. The balance sheet is the strongest pillar (13/20, Altman Z 6.82, Debt/Equity 0.39), giving the business solvency room while it works through negative free cash flow.. Institutional whale score is 5/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $65.55 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on 57.7x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Industrial Machinery/Components. If gross margin (26.7%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $54.59 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $67.40

Free cash flow turned to -$64.4M in FY 2025 with an FCF yield of -1.04%, while trailing P/E of 57.7 leaves the valuation dependent on e

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on AAON: Free cash flow turned to -$64.4M in FY 2025 with an FCF yield of -1.04%, while trailing P/E of 57.7 leaves the valuation dependent on earnings growth that cash generation does not yet support.. At 57.7x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Industrial Machinery/Components triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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