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Stock Ratings / Technology / XZO / options
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Exzeo Group Inc. (XZO) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$18.27 +2.18% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.39

Exzeo Group Inc. (XZO) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 73/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (60.4% gross margin, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $1.61B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on XZO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is XZO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Exzeo Group Inc. (NYSE: XZO) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $18.27 (+2.18% 1D, market cap $1.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, XZO ranks #55 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does XZO compare to EVCM and IQMX in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), XZO carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.3x, gross margin of 60.4%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, EVCM (EverCommerce Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 91.9x, ROIC 4.2%, cap $1.62B) and IQMX (IQM Quantum Computers Oyj) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, XZO leads on earnings multiple (19.3x) while XZO leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XZO?
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Per XZO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001873951), Exzeo Group Inc. generated $217.0M in revenue (+62.0% YoY), $82.7M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $347.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (60.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.39 (+0.63%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 20.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510073
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B
Cash (18)Whales (13)SEC (16)Macro (13)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.7% Base Target
$26 Bull$20 Base$15 Bear
📬 FREE XZO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for XZO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (73/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY XZO SCORES 73/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 20.8% FCF Margin ($45.1M FCF) & 60.4% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 12.79 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 7 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$15.96+3.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$16.57+0.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
70
Grade B$16.58+10.2% Next Q
Current
73
Grade B$18.27+7.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (65) → B (73)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the XZO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 73/100 (B) score, XZO faces multiple-compression risk if 19.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 57.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($16.26) or 200D SMA ($15.93) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($19.50) toward Bear Floor ($14.98).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $XZO• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “XZO Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 73%NO 27%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±9.2%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (XZO)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for XZO.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating XZO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on XZO
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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XZO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.06%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $17.71H $18.27L $17.71C $18.27VOL 268.2K
RES: $17.15SUP: $13.12SMA50: $16.26SMA200: $15.93
$19.70$17.71$15.72$13.73$11.74RES $17.15SUP $13.12$18.272026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

XZO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 XZO Butterfly Map → + Track XZO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
12.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +62.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XZO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XZO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for XZO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (XZO)

Technology Rank #55 of 715 ⚔️ EVCM vs XZO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (XZO vs. EVCM, IQMX, CXM, CERT)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Exzeo Group Inc. (XZO) ranks #55 by composite RQD confidence (73/100, grade B) and #315 by equity capitalization ($1.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, XZO leads on earnings valuation at 19.3x trailing P/E, while XZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 60.4% gross margin. XZO currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 73/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
XZO ACTIVE
Exzeo Group Inc.
B 73/100 19.3x 60.4% 85.0% +2.18% $1.61B Benchmark Subject
EVCM
EverCommerce Inc.
D 49/100 91.9x — 4.2% -5.89% $1.62B /evcm-vs-xzo →
IQMX
IQM Quantum Computers Oyj
D 45/100 — — — -2.91% $1.63B /iqmx-vs-xzo →
CXM
Sprinklr Inc. (Class A)
C+ 66/100 69.0x 67.4% 7.4% +1.03% $1.58B /cxm-vs-xzo →
CERT
Certara Inc.
C 63/100 — — 1.4% -2.81% $1.68B /cert-vs-xzo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001873951 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Exzeo Group Inc. (XZO) reported GAAP revenue of $217.0M (+62.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $133.9M , and +145.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $82.7M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, XZO closed FY2025 with $347.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 12.79, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $217.0M $82.7M — — $347.7M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $133.9M $45.3M — — $89.4M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $88.3M $21.5M — — — —

3. XZO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is XZO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Exzeo Group Inc. (NYSE: XZO) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $18.27 (+2.18% 1D, market cap $1.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, XZO ranks #55 in composite RQD confidence.

How does XZO compare to EVCM and IQMX in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), XZO carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.3x, gross margin of 60.4%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, EVCM (EverCommerce Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 91.9x, ROIC 4.2%, cap $1.62B) and IQMX (IQM Quantum Computers Oyj) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, XZO leads on earnings multiple (19.3x) while XZO leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XZO?

Per XZO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001873951), Exzeo Group Inc. generated $217.0M in revenue (+62.0% YoY), $82.7M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $347.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (60.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is XZO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XZO last traded at $18.27 (+2.18% on volume of 226,296 shares), positioning the stock +12.36% above its 50-day simple moving average ($16.26) and +14.69% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.93). Across its 52-week range of $12.36 to $24.60, XZO sits at the 48.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.2% ($16.59 to $19.95).

Direct Sub-Reports: XZO RQD Cockpit XZO 12M Forecast XZO Earnings & Move XZO Dividends & DRIP XZO Insiders & 13F XZO Whale Options XZO Profit Sankey XZO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 73/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

XZO — Exzeo Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Exzeo Group Inc. (XZO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 73/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $18.27 (+2.18% 1D, market capitalization $1.61B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 85.0%, gross margin of 60.4%, operating margin of 48.8%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 12.79, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Exzeo Group Inc. (XZO) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Technology sector, Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry. Per the market data, gross margin is 60.4%, operating margin 48.8%, and net margin 38.1%, indicating a high-margin software-type cost structure.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Exzeo Group Inc. (XZO) reported $217.0M in annual revenue (up from $133.9M in FY2024, +62.0% YoY) and $82.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($88.3M revenue, $21.5M net income) through FY2025, XZO scaled operating cash flow to $0 and free cash flow to $0, backed by $347.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 73/100): Strong cash generator (60.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $12.36 – $24.60 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 19.3x trailing P/E and 12.2x EV/EBITDA against 48.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (Technology), XZO carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 60.4%.

  • Key Question #1: Can XZO sustain or expand its 48.8% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $217.0M and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is XZO's 16.2x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

XZO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Exzeo Group Inc. (XZO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to XZO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

XZO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $18.27?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON XZO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on XZO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $21.28 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported FY 2025 operating income of $106.0M on $217.0M revenue, with an 85% ROIC and a 12.79 Altman Z-Score.

Don't sleep on XZO's setup in Technology. Reported FY 2025 operating income of $106.0M on $217.0M revenue, with an 85% ROIC and a 12.79 Altman Z-Score.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (73/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 73/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $17.88 and keeping dry powder in case we test $16.63.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.13 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $17.88

A 0% FCF yield and N/A free cash flow in every reported period leave the cash-generation case unverified.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short XZO above $17.88. A 0% FCF yield and N/A free cash flow in every reported period leave the cash-generation case unverified.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $24.60.

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