XPO Inc. (XPO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$189.57 +3.59% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $190.43

XPO Inc. (XPO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $21.43B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is XPO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, XPO Inc. (NYSE: XPO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $189.57 (+3.59% 1D, market cap $21.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, XPO ranks #591 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does XPO compare to EXPE and GATX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), XPO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 67.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.8%. By comparison, EXPE (Expedia Group Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 57.1%, cap $32.37B) and GATX (GATX Corporation) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 4.0%, cap $6.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GATX leads on earnings multiple (19.1x) while EXPE leads on capital efficiency (57.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XPO?
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Per XPO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001166003), XPO Inc. generated $8.16B in revenue (+1.1% YoY), $316.0M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $8.19B in total assets and $3.25B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $190.44 (+0.46%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 1.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (14)Whales (11)SEC (16)Macro (3)CEO (4)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$244 Bull$181 Base$141 Bear
📬 FREE XPO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for XPO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY XPO SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.69 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.3% FCF Margin ($107.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
40
Grade D$181.15+3.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
43
Grade D$186.75+0.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
45
Grade D$187.92+0.9% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$189.57-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a XPO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While XPO currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($183.27) and Max Pain ($199.05) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $243.65.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $XPO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “XPO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
48.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
4.69>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
5 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE60% OF RANGE
L: $125$189.57H: $232
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on XPO

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (70)

10.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -1.38% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 4.69 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (30)

15/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 3/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like XPO
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Priced at 68x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring XPO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of XPO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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XPO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.19%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $181.7H $189.6L $181.7C $189.6VOL 3.49M
RES: $191.9SUP: $153.8SMA50: $183.3SMA200: $197.1
$237.3$215.5$193.6$171.7$149.9RES $191.9SUP $153.8$189.62026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

XPO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
44.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XPO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XPO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for XPO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (XPO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #591 of 1011 ⚔️ EXPE vs XPO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (XPO vs. EXPE, GATX, HAFN, GXO)

Industry: Transportation Services (22 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, XPO Inc. (XPO) ranks #591 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #94 by equity capitalization ($21.43B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GATX leads on earnings valuation at 19.1x trailing P/E, while EXPE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 57.1% ROIC and — gross margin. EXPE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with XPO at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
XPO ACTIVE
XPO Inc.
D 48/100 67.8x — 10.8% +3.59% $21.43B Benchmark Subject
EXPE
Expedia Group Inc.
C+ 66/100 24.9x — 57.1% +1.13% $32.37B /expe-vs-xpo →
GATX
GATX Corporation
D+ 57/100 19.1x — 4.0% +0.37% $6.37B /gatx-vs-xpo →
HAFN
Hafnia Limited
C 65/100 — — — -1.72% $5.92B /hafn-vs-xpo →
GXO
GXO Logistics Inc.
D 48/100 159.1x — 4.2% +0.68% $5.73B /gxo-vs-xpo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001166003

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), XPO Inc. (XPO) reported GAAP revenue of $8.16B (+1.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.07B , and +5.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $316.0M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, XPO closed FY2025 with $8.19B in total assets against $3.25B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.69, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $8.16B $316.0M — — $8.19B $3.25B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $8.07B $387.0M — — $7.71B $3.33B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $7.74B $189.0M — — $11.79B $2.76B

3. XPO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is XPO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, XPO Inc. (NYSE: XPO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $189.57 (+3.59% 1D, market cap $21.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, XPO ranks #591 in composite RQD confidence.

How does XPO compare to EXPE and GATX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), XPO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 67.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.8%. By comparison, EXPE (Expedia Group Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 57.1%, cap $32.37B) and GATX (GATX Corporation) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 4.0%, cap $6.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GATX leads on earnings multiple (19.1x) while EXPE leads on capital efficiency (57.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XPO?

Per XPO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001166003), XPO Inc. generated $8.16B in revenue (+1.1% YoY), $316.0M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $8.19B in total assets and $3.25B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is XPO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XPO last traded at $189.57 (+3.59% on volume of 2,058,310 shares), positioning the stock +3.44% above its 50-day simple moving average ($183.27) and -3.80% below its 200-day simple moving average ($197.06). Across its 52-week range of $124.82 to $232.05, XPO sits at the 60.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.4% ($175.54 to $203.60).

XPO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell XPO stock right now?

XPO Inc. (XPO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 48/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 68x P/E (11% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is XPO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

XPO's 12-month base price target is $181.04 (range $141.21 to $243.65), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

XPO — XPO Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:13:29Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, XPO carries an RQD Score of 48 out of 100, a letter grade of D, and a verdict label of "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." Across the five pillars: Fundamental Cash Engine scores 14/20 (ROIC 10.8%; FCF yield -1.38%); Whale 13F Flow scores 11/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction scores 4/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit scores 3/20 (Beta 0.89; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet scores 16/20 (Altman Z 4.69; Piotroski F 5/9; Debt/Equity 1.75). The strongest pillar is forensic balance sheet health, while insider conviction and macro regime fit are the weakest. For a prospective investor, the rating points to a cash-generation gap (negative FCF yield) and weak insider signals, offset by a comparatively sound balance-sheet profile. Valuation is a central tradeoff: per the market data, the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 67.8 and forward P/E of 63.1, which leaves limited margin for error if operating results disappoint. Upside drivers would need to come from sustained improvement in free cash flow and margins; the rating itself frames the current setup as a distribution warning rather than an accumulation signal.

Snapshot

MetricValue
Price183.01
Market Cap$21.43B
P/E (TTM)67.8
Forward P/E63.1
EV/EBITDA20.1
EPS (TTM)2.7
Dividend Yield0%
Beta0.89
52-Wk Range$124.82 - $232.05
ROIC %10.8%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, headlines include a Yahoo Finance report on a possible undervaluation tied to network expansion (YELLOW), a Benzinga long-horizon return piece (YELLOW), a Seeking Alpha note that Citi upgraded XPO to Buy citing trucking opportunities (GREEN, CATALYST), a Barron's piece on freight resilience amid high diesel prices (YELLOW), a Yahoo Finance valuation note on a 275% run (YELLOW), and a Seeking Alpha piece on margin versus valuation gaps (YELLOW). The catalyst-tagged item is the Citi upgrade; the remaining items are market-wire commentary. Risk watch items include the valuation gap referenced in the news and the negative FCF yield in the RQD data. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded (supply chain: NONE).

Open Questions

  • What are the EPS and free cash flow figures for the reported fiscal periods, which the financials table lists as N/A?
  • What is the FY 2023 cash balance, which is not reported?
  • What is the consensus analyst rating and price target, given the analyst data section is empty?
  • What institutional (13F) or insider (Form 4) holdings exist, given the holders section is empty?
  • What specific network-expansion initiative underpins the undervaluation thesis cited in news coverage?

XPO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for XPO Inc. (XPO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to XPO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

XPO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $189.57?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON XPO 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on XPO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $197.65 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is XPO (D • RQD 48/100) a Buy at $183.01?

Welcome to the XPO (XPO Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Transportation Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (67.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $144.58 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $183.01

Pump the brakes on XPO — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on XPO, but look at what you are paying: 67.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless XPO Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $217.78 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $183.01

XPO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on XPO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Transportation Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $183.01 (52-wk range $124.82 - $232.05), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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