How profitable is Wayfair Inc. (W)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), W converted $12.5B of revenue into a 30.2% gross margin, 0.1% operating margin, and $464.0M in free cash flow (3.7% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / W / financials

CDW (72) CPNG (47) CHWY (62) VIPS (61) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Wayfair Inc. (W) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$113.14 -2.39% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $112.44

Wayfair Inc. (W) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $15.88B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on W Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is W stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Wayfair Inc. (NYSE: W) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $113.14 (-2.39% 1D, market cap $15.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, W ranks #316 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does W compare to CDW and CPNG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Catalog/Specialty Distribution), W carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.2%, and ROIC of 1.0%. By comparison, CDW (CDW Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 19.4x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $19.23B) and CPNG (Coupang Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 125.9x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $25.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VIPS leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while VIPS leads on capital efficiency (35.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for W?

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Per W's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001616707), Wayfair Inc. generated $12.46B in revenue (+5.1% YoY), -$313.0M in net income, and $464.0M in free cash flow against $3.44B in total assets and $3.23B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $112.44 (-0.62%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 3.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for W)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY W SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+18/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.7% FCF Margin ($464.0M FCF) & 30.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (57.6) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$104.78+8.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$113.31+0.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$114.02-0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$113.14+0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the W Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, W faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($105.70) or 200D SMA ($88.74) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($114.16) toward Bear Floor ($89.04).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $W• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “W Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How W Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$464.0M (3.7% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $12.00B

FY24

Rev $11.85B

FY25

Rev $12.46B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$12.46B	30.2%	0.1%	-$313.0M	$464.0M	95%
FY 2024	$11.85B	30.2%	-3.9%	-$492.0M	$244.0M	-45%
FY 2023	$12.00B	30.2%	-6.8%	-$738.0M	-$191.1M	-7.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring W)

✓Walkthrough of W's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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W // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +74.46%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $120.1H $120.1L $113.1C $113.1VOL 2.20M

RES: $121.1SUP: $103.2SMA50: $105.7SMA200: $88.74

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

W Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 W Butterfly Map → + Track W →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

26.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on W today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for W. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for W today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (W)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #316 of 1009 ⚔️ CDW vs W Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (W vs. CDW, CPNG, CHWY, VIPS)

Industry: Catalog/Specialty Distribution (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Wayfair Inc. (W) ranks #316 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #119 by equity capitalization ($15.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VIPS leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while VIPS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 35.7% ROIC and 23.1% gross margin. CDW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with W at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
W ACTIVE Wayfair Inc.	C-	60/100	—	30.2%	1.0%	-2.39%	$15.88B	Benchmark Subject
CDW CDW Corporation	B	72/100	19.4x	21.7%	19.8%	-2.08%	$19.23B	/cdw-vs-w →
CPNG Coupang Inc.	D	47/100	125.9x	29.4%	9.7%	+2.30%	$25.83B	/cpng-vs-w →
CHWY Chewy Inc.	C	62/100	37.6x	29.8%	30.0%	+4.60%	$8.56B	/chwy-vs-w →
VIPS Vipshop Holdings Limited each representing two	C-	61/100	5.9x	23.1%	35.7%	+3.49%	$6.19B	/vips-vs-w →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001616707 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Wayfair Inc. (W) reported GAAP revenue of $12.46B (+5.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.85B , and +3.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$313.0M, operating cash flow of $534.0M, and free cash flow of $464.0M (+90.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, W closed FY2025 with $3.44B in total assets against $3.23B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.22, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$12.46B	-$313.0M	$534.0M	$464.0M	$3.44B	$3.23B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$11.85B	-$492.0M	$317.0M	$244.0M	$3.46B	$2.88B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$12.00B	-$738.0M	$349.0M	-$191.1M	$14.40B	$3.37B

3. W Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is W stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does W compare to CDW and CPNG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for W?

Where is W trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

W last traded at $113.14 (-2.39% on volume of 3,011,441 shares), positioning the stock +7.04% above its 50-day simple moving average ($105.70) and +27.50% above its 200-day simple moving average ($88.74). Across its 52-week range of $55.60 to $120.90, W sits at the 88.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.5% ($102.39 to $123.89).

Direct Sub-Reports: W RQD Cockpit W 12M Forecast W Earnings & Move W Dividends & DRIP W Insiders & 13F W Whale Options W Profit Sankey W News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

W — Wayfair Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Wayfair Inc. (W) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 60/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $113.14 (-2.39% 1D, market capitalization $15.88B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 1.0%, gross margin of 30.2%, operating margin of 0.1%, and free cash flow yield of 2.82%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (18/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.05x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.22, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Wayfair Inc. Is a NYSE-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector, operating in the Catalog/Specialty Distribution industry. It is a publicly traded US issuer with a market capitalization of $16.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Wayfair Inc. (W) reported $12.46B in annual revenue (up from $11.85B in FY2024, +5.1% YoY) and -$313.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($12.00B revenue, -$738.0M net income) through FY2025, W scaled operating cash flow to $534.0M and free cash flow to $464.0M, backed by $3.44B in total assets against $3.23B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 60/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 2.82% and institutional whale pillar of 18/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 18/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $55.60 – $120.90 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation and 95.0x EV/EBITDA against 0.1% operating margins and a 1.05x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Catalog/Specialty Distribution (Consumer Discretionary), W carries a macro regime beta of 1.05 and gross margin of 30.2%.

Key Question #1: Can W sustain or expand its 0.1% operating margin and 1.0% ROIC against Catalog/Specialty Distribution peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $12.46B and free cash flow of $464.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.23B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is W's 34.0x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.05x)?

W Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Wayfair Inc. (W) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to W Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

3 Reasons to Sell W and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

Yahoo Finance report covering Wayfair Inc. (W) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 1d ago

Wayfair Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy W?

StockInvest.us report covering Wayfair Inc. (W) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Wayfair Inc (W) Stock Down 3.5% but Still Overvalued -- GF Score: 57/100

GuruFocus report covering Wayfair Inc. (W) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Wayfair (W) Stock Still Looks Below Fair Value Following Its 145% Run

Simply Wall St report covering Wayfair Inc. (W) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

Mizuho raises Wayfair stock price target on revenue growth outlook

Investing.com report covering Wayfair Inc. (W) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Ad Age • 1d ago

Wayfair—ad spending, facts and profile

Ad Age report covering Wayfair Inc. (W) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Did Klarna’s Expanded 0% Financing Push Just Reframe Wayfair’s (W) Big-Ticket Strategy?

Yahoo Finance report covering Wayfair Inc. (W) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Wayfair Inc (W) Stock Up 4.4% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 54/100

GuruFocus report covering Wayfair Inc. (W) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

W Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $113.14?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON W 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $149.52 (+29.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional whale-flow scores 19 of 20 and FY 2025 operating income turned positive at $17.0M after two years of losses.

The street is overcomplicating Wayfair Inc. (W). Institutional whale-flow scores 19 of 20 and FY 2025 operating income turned positive at $17.0M after two years of losses.. With an RQD score of 60/100 (C-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 12/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $125.18.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 18/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $115.91 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $92.73 (-20.0%)

Spot @ $115.91

Forward P/E of 34 and EV/EBITDA of 95 against ROIC of 1% and net income of -$313.0M leave valuation far ahead of profitability.

Careful chasing W at $115.91. Forward P/E of 34 and EV/EBITDA of 95 against ROIC of 1% and net income of -$313.0M leave valuation far ahead of profitability.. Gross margin is 30.2%, but operating margin is 0.1%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $92.73 on multiple compression.