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U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. (USPH) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$84.90 -1.08% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $84.94

U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. (USPH) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (19.2% gross margin, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $1.28B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on USPH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is USPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. (NYSE: USPH) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $84.90 (-1.08% 1D, market cap $1.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, USPH ranks #77 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does USPH compare to INNV and OMDA in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Nursing Services), USPH carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.6x, gross margin of 19.2%, and ROIC of 11.5%. By comparison, INNV (InnovAge Holding Corp.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.2%, cap $1.25B) and OMDA (Omada Health Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.7%, cap $1.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, USPH leads on earnings multiple (32.6x) while USPH leads on capital efficiency (11.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for USPH?
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Per USPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000885978), U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. generated $781.0M in revenue (+16.3% YoY), $39.6M in net income, and $75.1M in free cash flow against $1.20B in total assets and $152.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $84.94 (+0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 9.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510070
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B
Cash (13)Whales (13)SEC (14)Macro (15)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target
$106 Bull$89 Base$70 Bear
📬 FREE USPH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for USPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY USPH SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 82% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 51.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-7 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
78
Grade A-$85.44+1.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
75
Grade B+$87.02+0.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
73
Grade B$87.34-2.8% Next Q
Current
70
Grade B-$84.90+6.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A- (78) → B- (70)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the USPH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, USPH faces multiple-compression risk if 32.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 16.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($83.15) or 200D SMA ($76.74) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($89.48) toward Bear Floor ($69.62).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $USPH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “USPH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your USPH Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $84.90: 117.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $69.62
$8,200
$-1,800 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $89.48
$10,539
+$539 (+5.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $105.59
$12,437
+$2,437 (+24.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$9374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$9969%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$8058%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (USPH Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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USPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.71%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $86.57H $86.57L $84.90C $84.90VOL 146.4K
RES: $90.75SUP: $81.26SMA50: $83.15SMA200: $76.74
$92.21$82.99$73.77$64.55$55.33RES $90.75SUP $81.26$84.902026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

USPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 USPH Butterfly Map → + Track USPH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +16.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on USPH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for USPH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for USPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (USPH)

Health Care Rank #77 of 1015 ⚔️ INNV vs USPH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (USPH vs. INNV, OMDA, PNTG, TDOC)

Industry: Medical/Nursing Services (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. (USPH) ranks #77 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #324 by equity capitalization ($1.28B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, USPH leads on earnings valuation at 32.6x trailing P/E, while USPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.5% ROIC and 19.2% gross margin. USPH currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
USPH ACTIVE
U.S. Physical Therapy Inc.
B- 70/100 32.6x 19.2% 11.5% -1.08% $1.28B Benchmark Subject
INNV
InnovAge Holding Corp.
D+ 52/100 — 18.0% -10.2% -2.94% $1.25B /innv-vs-usph →
OMDA
Omada Health Inc.
D+ 53/100 — 65.7% -15.7% -4.70% $1.15B /omda-vs-usph →
PNTG
The Pennant Group Inc.
C 64/100 50.2x — 11.0% -2.78% $1.46B /pntg-vs-usph →
TDOC
Teladoc Health Inc.
D+ 55/100 — — -17.0% +1.41% $1.55B /tdoc-vs-usph →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000885978 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. (USPH) reported GAAP revenue of $781.0M (+16.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $671.3M , and +29.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $39.6M, operating cash flow of $75.1M, and free cash flow of $75.1M (+0.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, USPH closed FY2025 with $1.20B in total assets against $152.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.94, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $781.0M $39.6M $75.1M $75.1M $1.20B $152.6M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $671.3M $31.4M $74.9M $74.9M $1.17B $142.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $604.8M $28.2M $82.0M $82.0M — —

3. USPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is USPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. (NYSE: USPH) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $84.90 (-1.08% 1D, market cap $1.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, USPH ranks #77 in composite RQD confidence.

How does USPH compare to INNV and OMDA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Nursing Services), USPH carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.6x, gross margin of 19.2%, and ROIC of 11.5%. By comparison, INNV (InnovAge Holding Corp.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.2%, cap $1.25B) and OMDA (Omada Health Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.7%, cap $1.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, USPH leads on earnings multiple (32.6x) while USPH leads on capital efficiency (11.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for USPH?

Per USPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000885978), U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. generated $781.0M in revenue (+16.3% YoY), $39.6M in net income, and $75.1M in free cash flow against $1.20B in total assets and $152.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is USPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

USPH last traded at $84.90 (-1.08% on volume of 334,728 shares), positioning the stock +2.10% above its 50-day simple moving average ($83.15) and +10.63% above its 200-day simple moving average ($76.74). Across its 52-week range of $58.19 to $90.94, USPH sits at the 81.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($79.38 to $90.42).

Direct Sub-Reports: USPH RQD Cockpit USPH 12M Forecast USPH Earnings & Move USPH Dividends & DRIP USPH Insiders & 13F USPH Whale Options USPH Profit Sankey USPH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

USPH — U.S. Physical Therapy Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. (USPH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 70/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $84.90 (-1.08% 1D, market capitalization $1.28B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.5%, gross margin of 19.2%, operating margin of 11.1%, and free cash flow yield of 5.81%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.94, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.32x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Health Care sector and Medical/Nursing Services industry,. Its market capitalization is $1.3B. Revenue figures appear in the financials section below.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. (USPH) reported $781.0M in annual revenue (up from $671.3M in FY2024, +16.3% YoY) and $39.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($604.8M revenue, $28.2M net income) through FY2025, USPH scaled operating cash flow to $75.1M and free cash flow to $75.1M, backed by $1.20B in total assets against $152.6M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 70/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 5.81% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $58.19 – $90.94 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 32.6x trailing P/E and 16.3x EV/EBITDA against 11.1% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the provided data.

  • Key Question #1: Can USPH sustain or expand its 11.1% operating margin and 11.5% ROIC against Medical/Nursing Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $781.0M and free cash flow of $75.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $152.6M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is USPH's 27.4x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

USPH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. (USPH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to USPH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

USPH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $84.90?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON USPH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on USPH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $112.44 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the Roarable RQD rating, the forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 2.94, Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.32) and macro-fit pillar (beta 1

Don't sleep on USPH's setup in Health Care. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 2.94, Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.32) and macro-fit pillar (beta 1.0) support the verdict of Roarable Buy.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (70/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — USPH's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $69.52 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $85.83

Trailing P/E of 32.6 and EV/EBITDA of 16.3 sit well above the 5.81% FCF yield, so valuation leaves limited margin for error.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short USPH above $85.83. Trailing P/E of 32.6 and EV/EBITDA of 16.3 sit well above the 5.81% FCF yield, so valuation leaves limited margin for error.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20) and FCF yield (5.81%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $90.94.

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