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Stock Ratings / Utilities / TXNM / forecast
BKH (53) ENIC (45) ORA (31) POR (41) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$58.38 -0.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.22

TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $6.43B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TXNM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TXNM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, TXNM Energy Inc. (NYSE: TXNM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $58.38 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $6.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, TXNM ranks #52 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TXNM compare to BKH and ENIC in the Utilities sector?
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Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), TXNM carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.1%. By comparison, BKH (Black Hills Corporation) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $6.25B) and ENIC (Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, POR leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while POR leads on capital efficiency (6.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXNM?
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Per TXNM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001108426), TXNM Energy Inc. generated $2.14B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $169.8M in net income, and $488.3M in free cash flow against $12.06B in total assets and $5.12B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.22 (-0.27%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 22.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (11)Whales (10)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
$67 Bull$57 Base$45 Bear
📬 FREE TXNM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TXNM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TXNM SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 22.9% FCF Margin ($488.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.8) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$58.57-0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$58.49+0.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$58.60-0.4% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$58.38-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TXNM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TXNM currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($58.32) and Max Pain ($61.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $67.34.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TXNM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TXNM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TXNM Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $58.38: 171.3 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $44.51
$7,624
$-2,376 (-23.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $57.07
$9,776
$-224 (-2.2%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $67.34
$11,535
+$1,535 (+15.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$5974%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$6369%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$5158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TXNM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TXNM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TXNM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.37%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $58.65H $58.65L $58.38C $58.38VOL 967.8K
RES: $58.99SUP: $58.33SMA50: $58.32SMA200: $58.39
$59.80$58.67$57.55$56.42$55.29RES $58.99SUP $58.33$58.382026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TXNM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TXNM Butterfly Map → + Track TXNM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
29.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TXNM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TXNM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TXNM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TXNM)

Utilities Rank #52 of 117 ⚔️ BKH vs TXNM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (TXNM vs. BKH, ENIC, ORA, POR)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) ranks #52 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #50 by equity capitalization ($6.43B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, POR leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while POR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.1% ROIC and — gross margin. TXNM currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TXNM ACTIVE
TXNM Energy Inc.
D+ 53/100 38.0x — 4.1% -0.46% $6.43B Benchmark Subject
BKH
Black Hills Corporation
D+ 53/100 21.3x — 5.1% +0.68% $6.25B /bkh-vs-txnm →
ENIC
Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )
D 45/100 — — — -2.36% $5.71B /enic-vs-txnm →
ORA
Ormat Technologies Inc.
E 31/100 44.7x 27.6% 3.4% -2.74% $5.52B /ora-vs-txnm →
POR
Portland General Electric Co
D- 41/100 12.0x — 6.1% +0.52% $5.29B /por-vs-txnm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001108426

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) reported GAAP revenue of $2.14B (+9.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.96B , and +11.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $169.8M, operating cash flow of $584.5M, and free cash flow of $488.3M (+16.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TXNM closed FY2025 with $12.06B in total assets against $5.12B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.80, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.14B $169.8M $584.5M $488.3M $12.06B $5.12B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.96B $258.7M $508.2M $420.0M $11.21B $4.31B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.91B $106.9M $551.2M $465.0M $3.55B $831.3M

3. TXNM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TXNM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, TXNM Energy Inc. (NYSE: TXNM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $58.38 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $6.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, TXNM ranks #52 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TXNM compare to BKH and ENIC in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), TXNM carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.1%. By comparison, BKH (Black Hills Corporation) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $6.25B) and ENIC (Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, POR leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while POR leads on capital efficiency (6.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXNM?

Per TXNM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001108426), TXNM Energy Inc. generated $2.14B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $169.8M in net income, and $488.3M in free cash flow against $12.06B in total assets and $5.12B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TXNM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TXNM last traded at $58.38 (-0.46% on volume of 967,807 shares), positioning the stock +0.10% above its 50-day simple moving average ($58.32) and -0.02% below its 200-day simple moving average ($58.39). Across its 52-week range of $55.64 to $59.53, TXNM sits at the 70.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($57.33 to $59.43).

Direct Sub-Reports: TXNM RQD Cockpit TXNM 12M Forecast TXNM Earnings & Move TXNM Dividends & DRIP TXNM Insiders & 13F TXNM Whale Options TXNM Profit Sankey TXNM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TXNM — TXNM Energy Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:19:05Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TXNM scores 59 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20 (ROIC 4.1%; FCF yield 7.56%); Whale 13F Flow 13/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 14/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 11/20 (Beta 0.49; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 10/20 (Altman Z 0.8; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 1.5). Investor implications: the strongest pillar is insider conviction, which signals some insider-side confidence, while the weakest pillars are the cash engine and balance sheet. The 4.1% ROIC and Altman Z of 0.8 point to thin returns on capital and elevated financial stress, which is the main valuation tradeoff: the 7.56% FCF yield and 2.53% dividend yield are offset by a trailing P/E of 38 and EV/EBITDA of 22.1. Upside drivers in the data are the insider and institutional flow signals and the low beta of 0.49; downside risks are the balance-sheet metrics and premium valuation. This is an analytical framing, not personalized financial advice.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Earnings: Investing.com reports TXNM beat earnings by $0.08 with revenue topping estimates (GREEN catalyst flag).
  • Merger review: Albuquerque Journal reports PRC examiners let the TXNM-Blackstone merger move forward.
  • Lock-up: marketscreener.com reports certain common stock is subject to a lock-up agreement ending 31-OCT-2026 (a risk watch item).
  • Price action: Yahoo Finance reports the stock trades at a premium after a 48% run.
  • Quarterly results: TradingView reports TXNM Energy results for Third Quarter 2026.
  • Proprietary signals: None in the Butterfly graph.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain: NONE; butterfly links: none; proprietary signals: none. Sector: Utilities; industry: Electric Utilities: Central. Upstream/downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and 2nd-order bottlenecks: —

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Analyst data: —

Holders (13F, SEC Form 4, Congressional trades): —

Open Questions

  • What is the company's actual product mix, customer base, and revenue model (the Business section is unresolved in the source)?
  • What are the terms and financial implications of the Blackstone merger, and how does the 31-OCT-2026 lock-up interact with it?
  • Why did debt rise from $831.3M to $5.12B over FY 2023–FY 2025, and what drove the increase?
  • What explains the gap between a 38 trailing P/E and a 1.54 EPS-derived earnings base, and how do EPS figures for FY 2023–FY 2025 compare (currently N/A)?
  • What are the sector-level correlations and supply-chain dependencies, given the Butterfly graph returned none?

TXNM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TXNM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TXNM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $58.38?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TXNM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TXNM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $74.14 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (14/20) and a 7.56% FCF yield with a low 0.49 beta offer income-oriented support despite the rating.

Insider conviction (14/20) and a 7.56% FCF yield with a low 0.49 beta offer income-oriented support despite the rating.. When you look under the hood at TXNM, Fundamental Cash Engine is 11/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 4.1% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (10/20) has been quietly accumulating below $59.53. My 12M target is $74.14.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 10/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $58.38 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Utilities.

RE RedlineAuditor Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $44.37 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $58.38

A 0.8 Altman Z-Score, 1.5 Debt/Equity, and debt rising to $5116.0M against a 38 trailing P/E leave the balance sheet and valuation vuln

Fading this rally in TXNM at $58.38. A 0.8 Altman Z-Score, 1.5 Debt/Equity, and debt rising to $5116.0M against a 38 trailing P/E leave the balance sheet and valuation vulnerable.. With a beta of 0.49 and the stock sitting at $58.38 (52-wk range $55.64–$59.53), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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