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Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$16.23 -0.92% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.17

Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $442.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Tejon Ranch Co (NYSE: TRC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $16.23 (-0.92% 1D, market cap $442.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TRC ranks #830 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TRC compare to AHRT and BOC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), TRC carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -1.3%. By comparison, AHRT (AH Realty Trust Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E 116.9x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $453.5M) and BOC (Boston Omaha Corporation (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.6%, cap $389.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FRPH leads on earnings multiple (114.6x) while AHRT leads on capital efficiency (6.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRC?
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Per TRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000096869), Tejon Ranch Co generated $49.6M in revenue (+18.4% YoY), $75.0K in net income, and $6.1M in free cash flow against $630.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.17 (-0.36%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 12.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510044
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (12)Whales (6)SEC (13)Macro (6)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target
$22 Bull$15 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE TRC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TRC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TRC SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 12.4% FCF Margin ($6.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (49.7) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$16.50-2.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$16.15+1.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$16.35-0.7% Next Q
Current
44
Grade D$16.23-6.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (52) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TRC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TRC currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.29) and Max Pain ($17.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.38.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TRC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TRC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±5.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TRC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TRC.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TRC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TRC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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TRC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.36%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $16.76H $16.76L $16.23C $16.23VOL 99.6K
RES: $16.95SUP: $15.79SMA50: $16.29SMA200: $17.74
$21.70$20.10$18.49$16.89$15.29RES $16.95SUP $15.79$16.232026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TRC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TRC Butterfly Map → + Track TRC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TRC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TRC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TRC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TRC)

Financials Rank #830 of 1097 ⚔️ AHRT vs TRC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TRC vs. AHRT, BOC, REAX, FRPH)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) ranks #830 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #731 by equity capitalization ($442.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FRPH leads on earnings valuation at 114.6x trailing P/E, while AHRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.5% ROIC and — gross margin. TRC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TRC ACTIVE
Tejon Ranch Co
D 44/100 — — -1.3% -0.92% $442.6M Benchmark Subject
AHRT
AH Realty Trust Inc.
D- 37/100 116.9x — 6.5% +5.26% $453.5M /ahrt-vs-trc →
BOC
Boston Omaha Corporation (Class A)
E 31/100 — — -0.6% +4.02% $389.8M /boc-vs-trc →
REAX
Real REMAX Group Inc.
D- 43/100 — — — +5.50% $512.3M /reax-vs-trc →
FRPH
FRP Holdings Inc.
E 28/100 114.6x — 1.3% +0.59% $360.0M /frph-vs-trc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000096869 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) reported GAAP revenue of $49.6M (+18.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $41.9M , and +10.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $75.0K, operating cash flow of $6.1M, and free cash flow of $6.1M (+114.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TRC closed FY2025 with $630.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $49.6M $75.0K $6.1M $6.1M $630.5M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $41.9M $2.7M $14.3M -$42.9M $608.0M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $44.7M $3.3M $13.7M $13.7M — —

3. TRC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Tejon Ranch Co (NYSE: TRC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $16.23 (-0.92% 1D, market cap $442.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TRC ranks #830 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TRC compare to AHRT and BOC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), TRC carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -1.3%. By comparison, AHRT (AH Realty Trust Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E 116.9x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $453.5M) and BOC (Boston Omaha Corporation (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.6%, cap $389.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FRPH leads on earnings multiple (114.6x) while AHRT leads on capital efficiency (6.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRC?

Per TRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000096869), Tejon Ranch Co generated $49.6M in revenue (+18.4% YoY), $75.0K in net income, and $6.1M in free cash flow against $630.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TRC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TRC last traded at $16.23 (-0.92% on volume of 103,262 shares), positioning the stock -0.37% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.29) and -8.51% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.74). Across its 52-week range of $15.31 to $21.31, TRC sits at the 15.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.1% ($15.40 to $17.06).

Direct Sub-Reports: TRC RQD Cockpit TRC 12M Forecast TRC Earnings & Move TRC Dividends & DRIP TRC Insiders & 13F TRC Whale Options TRC Profit Sankey TRC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 44/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TRC — Tejon Ranch Co: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 44/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $16.23 (-0.92% 1D, market capitalization $442.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -1.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -16.0%, and free cash flow yield of 1.35%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and Real Estate industry. Reported revenue is shown in the financial trend below.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) reported $49.6M in annual revenue (up from $41.9M in FY2024, +18.4% YoY) and $75.0K in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($44.7M revenue, $3.3M net income) through FY2025, TRC scaled operating cash flow to $6.1M and free cash flow to $6.1M, backed by $630.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 44/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 1.35% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $15.31 – $21.31 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -16.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are — The only sector context provided is the Financials / Real Estate classification and the beta of 1.0.

  • Key Question #1: Can TRC sustain or expand its -16.0% operating margin and -1.3% ROIC against Real Estate peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $49.6M and free cash flow of $6.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TRC's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TRC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TRC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TRC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $16.23?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TRC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TRC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $21.29 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The balance-sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Altman Z 2.5 and Piotroski F 6/9, indicating a more stable financial base than the earnings

Here is why I am bullish on TRC here at $16.38: The balance-sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Altman Z 2.5 and Piotroski F 6/9, indicating a more stable financial base than the earnings engine.. Compare TRC's -16.0% operating margin and -1.3% ROIC against the rest of Real Estate. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $15.56 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.09 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $16.38

ROIC of -1.3% and FCF yield of 1.35% with operating margin of -16% leave the cash engine weak and valuation unanchored by earnings.

ROIC of -1.3% and FCF yield of 1.35% with operating margin of -16% leave the cash engine weak and valuation unanchored by earnings.. Look at the math on TRC: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -1.3% ROIC and -16.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Real Estate demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $14.41 before getting long.

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